What Does the Future Hold for Per Mertesacker at Arsenal?

The start of this season appears set to be a crucial period for Arsenal's Per Mertesacker.

Unlike many of his team-mates, he enjoyed a summer off and looked likely to begin the campaign in Arsene Wenger’s preferred XI. What’s more, he was also lined up to be the Gunners’ new captain. However, a knee injury has now ruled him out of the first half of the season, leaving his hopes dashed and his future uncertain. 

Last season did not end particularly well for Mertesacker. As the campaign approached its close, he found himself rotated in and out of the side. In truth, Wenger didn’t seem entirely convinced by either Mertesacker or Gabriel.

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

However, 2016/17 appeared to offer him a fresh start. As one of the first to return to training, he looked as though he was due to form a major part of Wenger’s plans. Then, the disastrous injury struck.

There’s a certain irony about the fact that Mertesacker, who was spared the rigours of a European Championship campaign by his international retirement back in 2014, picked up the injury in a friendly. 

Speaking after the match against Lens, Wenger told Arsenal’s official website (h/t Sky Sports): 

"

We have bad news on Per Mertesacker.

He played in Lens on Friday night, he finished the game and had a little pain on his knee. We found out the next day that it was much more serious than expected. 

He had surgery yesterday in Germany. It all went well. I know you will ask me for how long he will be out. I don't know that, it's months, but I don't know how long he will be out for. 

"

It’s a particularly untimely piece of news for Wenger, who was arguably short of centre-halves anyway.

With Laurent Koscielny not yet back in training after Euro 2016 and Gabriel having suffered with a bout of illness, the Arsenal boss has been forced to rely on the England under-21 pair of Calum Chambers and Rob Holding throughout pre-season. Even midfielder Francis Coquelin has been pressed into occasional action as a central defender.

Wenger will now surely be looking at options on the transfer market. According to the Times (h/t The Independent's Jack de Menezes), the club have granted Wenger permission to pursue Mertesacker’s German compatriot and Valencia defender Shkodran Mustafi. 

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

That might spell trouble for Mertesacker. Mustafi is an established international-class player, and the mooted fee is not inconsiderable. It’s difficult to see Wenger splashing one of the highest transfer fees of his reign on a player who will not be a regular first-teamer, and the 24-year-old's arrival would almost certainly see Mertesacker nudged down the pecking order. 

With young talent like Holding and Chambers also on the books, Mertesacker could find his position in Arsenal’s defensive hierarchy under threat. If that prodigiously gifted pair make significant strides before Christmas, it will surely affect his place in Wenger’s plans.

The state of affairs is made worse by Mertesacker’s contract situation. His current deal has just one season remaining, and thus far there has been little talk of an extension.

By the end of the forthcoming campaign, Mertesacker will be 32. Wenger is famously loath to offer long-term deals to players who are over 30, so his future already looked somewhat uncertain. In the light of the bad news regarding his knee, Mertesacker’s situation is all the more precarious. 

It will be fascinating to see what Wenger does with the captain’s armband. Earlier this summer, Mikel Arteta retired to take up a coaching position with Manchester City, thus vacating the role of skipper. Mertesacker had served as his vice-captain and seemed the obvious choice to succeed him. 

In mid-July, Daniel Cutts of the Sun reported that Wenger had selected the German to be Arsenal’s new leader. However, the player himself was forced to deny the news, as reported by ESPN FC's Mattias Karen:

"

No, I cannot confirm that. There's nothing to say about that from my side, because I'm not going to decide that.

Everyone needs to take responsibility, especially in preseason and show himself from his best side. I think everyone does it.

And in the end, the manager makes his decisions on that front, who's going to play and what are his plans for next season and for the future. I think there's a lot more to discuss that are more interesting than the captain's armband. I get along with any decision he takes because for me it doesn't matter if I wear the band or not. 

"

Mertesacker wore the armband against Lens, but it’ll now be some time before he is available to lead Arsenal onto the field again.

That may not be a huge problem for Wenger, who retained Arteta as captain despite a series of major injuries. He is not a manager that places particular importance on the position. For the last couple of years, the captaincy of Arsenal has been primarily a ceremonial role. 

However, Wenger may feel that this season he needs to take a different approach. He may want to name someone who can lead by example on the field. There are other contenders—Laurent Koscielny has already worn the armband on several occasions, while Aaron Ramsey has captained his country and seems set to become an integral part of a reshaped Arsenal midfield.

Alternatively, Wenger could turn to Petr Cech. The 34-year-old is arguably the most experienced member of the Arsenal squad—certainly when it comes to Premier League success. He may have only been with the club for one season, but he has the natural authority to captain the team. Cech is also an organiser, and that’s what Arsenal will miss most in Mertesacker’s absence.

What the German lacks in speed he makes up for in his ability to interpret the game. The likes of Gabriel and Koscielny might be superior technical players, but they lack Mertesacker’s natural aptitude for tactical thinking. 

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

That might be what helps him remain an asset to Wenger. Arsenal are not blessed with many players capable of effectively marshalling a back four.  

In each of the last two seasons Mertesacker has begun the campaign as a guaranteed starter. However, this injury feels like the final nail in the coffin of his place as an automatic pick. What’s more, it could well cost him the captaincy—despite the leadership he could offer away from the field, it would be a questionable move to choose a skipper who will not be available until 2017. 

If this is to be the final year of Mertesacker’s time with Arsenal, he will need an outstanding second half of the campaign to prevent his Gunners career ending on a diminuendo. If a new signing establishes himself before he is fit again, he may find it very difficult to ever reclaim his place.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and will be following the club from a London base throughout 2016/17. Follow him on Twitter here.