Biggest NCAA Tournament Underachievers of the Past Decade

Many college basketball teams have repeatedly demonstrated they cannot be trusted in the NCAA tournament, but Georgetown has been the least dependable over the past decade.

In addition to simply remembering how many times the Hoyas made us rip up our brackets, we looked back through the last 10 NCAA tournaments to mathematically show just how disappointing Georgetown and our other "top" 10 teams have been.

Scores on the following slides are the cumulative seed differential of upsets. When a No. 12 seed knocks off a No. 5 seed, the former gets a score of plus-seven while the latter loses seven points. When a No. 5 seed holds serve and beats a No. 12 seed, though, no points were awarded or deducted, because that's what was supposed to happen.

In addition to a litany of minor upsets, there have been 57 cases over the past 10 years in which the victorious underdog was at least seven seed lines below the favorite—11 of which had a differential of at least 10 seed lines. Most of the teams on the following slides were on the wrong end of at least two of those major upsets.

Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, and you're likely on this list.

"Honorable" Mentions

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Clemson's bench got used to watching first-round upsets.

Clemson Tigers

The Tigers have been efficiently disappointing, appearing in just four NCAA tournaments in the past decade and losing as the better seed in the first round of three of those four dances. They lost to No. 12 Villanova in 2008 and followed it up with consecutive losses to No. 10 seeds (Michigan and Missouri) the following two years.

Syracuse Orange

Five months ago, Syracuse would have easily cracked the top 10. Upset losses to Dayton (2014), Marquette (2011) and Butler (2010) contributed heavily to what would have been a score of negative-17 if the Orange had missed the 2016 tournament. Instead, by beating Virginia to reach the Final Four, they bumped the Cavaliers into the top 10 while excusing themselves from it.

Louisville Cardinals

With a national championship, two Final Fours and five Elite Eights, Louisville is usually one of the more successful programs. But the first-round loss to No. 13 Morehead State in 2009—coupled with upsets at the hands of Kentucky and Michigan State in the latter stages of the 2014 and 2015 tournaments—was almost enough to put the Cardinals in our top 10.

Temple Owls

Twice in the past seven years, Temple has been on the wrong end of the popular No. 12 over No. 5 upset. The Owls lost to Cornell in 2010 and South Florida in 2012, and neither game was particularly close. 

Utah Utes

The Utes have only danced three times in the last 10 years, and two of those went poorly. Prior to joining the Pac-12 and having to deal with Arizona every year, Utah lost to the No. 12 Wildcats in 2009. And this past March, the No. 3 Utes fell at the hands of No. 11 Gonzaga.

San Diego State Aztecs

2012 and 2013 were not tournaments to remember for the Aztecs. First, they lost in the opening round to No. 11 North Carolina State. The following year, they helped Florida Gulf Coast make history by becoming the first (and only) team to lose to a No. 15 seed beyond the first round.

Missouri Tigers

Opportunities to disappoint have been few and far between for Missouri, which has been to just five of the last 10 tournaments and was only in a position to be upset in two of them. As a result, the Tigers didn't have a high enough cumulative score to crack our top 10. However, we would be remiss if we didn't at least mention their catastrophic loss to No. 15 seed Norfolk State in 2012.

10. Baylor Bears

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How could Yale out-rebound Baylor?

Score: -15

Overall Record: 8-6

Upsets
2015: No. 3 Baylor lost to No. 14 Georgia State (57-56)
2016: No. 5 Baylor lost to No. 12 Yale (79-75)

Proof that it doesn't take long to get a reputation as a chronic disappointment in the NCAA tournament, Baylor has the 10th-worst score despite not suffering a single upset in any of the first eight years included in this exercise.

Over the past two years, though, the Bears have suffered two of the most unforgivable losses, beginning with the one that nearly put Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter back in the hospital with another injury.

It wasn't Christian Laettner in the 1992 Elite Eight or Kris Jenkins in the 2016 title game, but Baylor was victimized by one of the most memorable NCAA tournament shots. The combination of R.J. Hunter draining that go-ahead three-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining and his dad/head coach falling off his stool in pure jubilation was one of the greatest college basketball moments ever.

Unless you're a Baylor fan, that is, in which case you also didn't find much joy in Taurean Prince's explanation for how Baylor could possibly get out-rebounded in its loss to Yale.

The Bears should be a Top 25 team once again this year, but at this point, it's going to take a lot of guts to pick them to win any tournament games. In our summer projection of the 2017 NCAA tournament field, we ended up with No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 San Diego State. If you don't think that has "Upset!" written all over it, you weren't properly burned by Baylor in recent bracket pools.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes

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Our final image of Aaron Craft as a Buckeye, following the upset loss to Dayton in 2014.

Score: -17

Overall Record: 17-8 (2007 and 2012 Final Four)

Upsets
2009: No. 8 Ohio State lost to No. 9 Siena (74-72)
2010: No. 2 Ohio State lost to No. 6 Tennessee (76-73)
2011: No. 1 Ohio State lost to No. 4 Kentucky (62-60)
2013: No. 2 Ohio State lost to No. 9 Wichita State (70-66)
2014: No. 6 Ohio State lost to No. 11 Dayton (60-59)

It has been all or nothing for the Buckeyes under Thad Matta.

They reached two Final Fours, failed to live up to their seed five times and missed two other tournaments altogether. The only year unaccounted for in that sentence was 2015 when they got their biggest underdog win of the past decade: an overtime win over No. 7 VCU when the Buckeyes were a No. 10 seed.

Like a few others we'll encounter higher up on this list, Ohio State has "suffered" from frequently receiving top seeds, unable to make up ground by beating better teams and needing to get deep into tournaments just to avoid letdowns.

In five of their eight dances, the Buckeyes were either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. In 2007 and 2012, that resulted in a trip to Final Four. In 2010, 2011 and 2013, though, upsets in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight damaged their score—particularly the most recent of that bunch.

The final margin in the 2013 loss to Wichita State doesn't look so bad, but Ohio State trailed by 20 midway through the second half before finally realizing the urgency of its situation. The Buckeyes simply couldn't buy a bucket against Carl Hall, Cleanthony Early and company. Not a single one shot better than 38 percent from the field in that game.

Since then, it has been a first-round loss to Dayton, a second-round departure and a missed tournament. Kind of crazy that just getting to the Sweet 16 would feel like a big win at this point for a team with two Final Fours in the last 10 years.

8. Virginia Cavaliers

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Orange you glad it wasn't Michigan State for a third straight year?

Score: -18

Overall Record: 7-5

Upsets
2007: No. 4 Virginia lost to No. 5 Tennessee (77-74)
2014: No. 1 Virginia lost to No. 4 Michigan State (61-59)
2015: No. 2 Virginia lost to No. 7 Michigan State (60-54)
2016: No. 1 Virginia lost to No. 10 Syracuse (68-62)

Though the past few regular seasons have been excellent, it has been a rough two decades' worth of Marches for the Wahoos.

They've only been to seven of the past 20 NCAA tournaments. As you can see above, four in the past 10 years resulted in upset losses. They were also bested by No. 12 seed Gonzaga in the first round of the 2001 tournament and beaten by double-digit margins in the first rounds of their other two appearances (a No. 9 seed in 1997 and a No. 10 seed in 2012).

All told, they are 7-7 since reaching the 1995 Elite Eight with five upset losses and not a single win over a team better than three seed lines below them.

However, there's a long list of teams that have been upset by either Gonzaga or Michigan State in the past 20 years. So it wasn't until this past March that Virginia crossed the bridge from "should probably fare better in the tournament" to "cannot trust this team again until it proves otherwise."

To be fair, Syracuse did give Virginia fits in their one battle during the regular season. The Cavaliers shot 65.4 percent from inside the arc and 44.4 percent from beyond it and only won by a single-digit margin. A close game against the red-hot Orange was to be expected.

But Virginia had a 15-point lead midway through the second half before getting outscored 29-8 the rest of the way. It was the type of collapse that only a team with a recent history of disappointing exits could possibly orchestrate.

It only takes one good run to regain trust, though. Let's not forget, Villanova had been a colossal tournament disappointment from 2010-15, but after winning one, the Wildcats are expected to at least reach the Final Four once again this year. Might 2017 be the year that Virginia finally breaks out of its funk?

6. (tie) New Mexico Lobos

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The look of a team that allowed Harvard to win its first NCAA tournament game in school history.

Score: -22

Overall Record: 2-4

Upsets
2010: No. 3 New Mexico lost to No. 11 Washington (82-64)
2013: No. 3 New Mexico lost to No. 14 Harvard (68-62)
2014: No. 7 New Mexico lost to No. 10 Stanford (58-53)

New Mexico has been so disappointing in the NCAA tournament that the entire Mountain West Conference has gotten a reputation for tournament failures.

In the past decade, the MWC has received a No. 4 seed or better five times: New Mexico in 2010 and 2013, BYU in 2011 and San Diego State in 2011 and 2014. The Aztecs and Cougars made it to the Sweet 16 in each of their three seasons with high expectations while the Lobos had one combined win in their two years as a No. 3 seed.

In 2010, they were arguably a bit over-seeded. New Mexico had a few quality victories in racking up 30 wins that year, but its RPI and strength of schedule were more in line with a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. In retrospect, it's hardly a surprise those Lobos were crushed by a Huskies team led by Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas.

But in 2013, they were under-seeded. They were No. 3 in RPI and No. 7 in SOS with a 10-3 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 19-6 record against the RPI Top 100. It was a resume that should have been right on the cusp of a No. 1 seed, certainly no worse than a No. 2 seed. But they got a No. 3 and proved they didn't even deserve that honor by immediately losing to Harvard.

Add in the disappointing loss to Stanford the following year, and one could argue that this is the second-most consistent underachiever, scoring a negative-22 in just four trips to the tournament. Among teams with at least three dances in the past decade, only Georgetown (negative-6.4) has a worse per-year average than New Mexico does (negative-5.5).

6. (tie) Vanderbilt Commodores

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Richmond was the most recent team to take advantage of Vanderbilt's NCAA tournament woes.

Score: -22

Overall Record: 3-6

Upsets
2008: No. 4 Vanderbilt lost to No. 13 Siena (83-62)
2010: No. 4 Vanderbilt lost to No. 13 Murray State (66-65)
2011: No. 5 Vanderbilt lost to No. 12 Richmond (69-66)

No. 4 and No. 5 seeds are annually the ones in the most danger of a first-round upset, because it's almost always a fringe Top 25 team pitted against one of the best mid-major teams to receive an automatic bid.

Case in point: Vanderbilt's five-year run from 2008-12.

The Commodores earned either a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012, drawing Siena, Murray State, Richmond and Harvard, respectively, and losing to three of them. And they nearly lost to Harvard, too, letting the Crimson claw back to within two possessions in the final two minutes in what still stands as Vanderbilt's only tournament win of the past nine years.

The 2008 loss to Siena was particularly damning and set the stage for the next few years of disappointments.

Murray State and Richmond were both quality teams and moderately understandable losses. The Racers entered that tourney with only one loss in their previous 22 games, while the Spiders scored nonconference wins over Purdue, Seton Hall and VCU before putting together a strong A-10 campaign.

But Siena was nothing special. The Saints lost five games in MAAC conference play after wrapping up nonconference play with a 102-58 loss to Memphis. Save for a home win over Stanford in the first week of the season, there was no reason to think they would be a threat to beat Vanderbilt, let alone by a 21-point margin.

It seems the Commodores are still trying to exorcise the demons from that one.

4. (tie) Wisconsin Badgers

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Aaron Harrison's cold-blooded shot in the 2014 Final Four resulted in one of Wisconsin's biggest tournament upsets.

Score: -24

Overall Record: 20-10 (2014 and 2015 Final Four)

Upsets
2007: No. 2 Wisconsin lost to No. 7 UNLV (74-68)
2008: No. 3 Wisconsin lost to No. 10 Davidson (73-56)
2010: No. 4 Wisconsin lost to No. 12 Cornell (87-69)
2011: No. 4 Wisconsin lost to No. 8 Butler (61-54)
2013: No. 5 Wisconsin lost to No. 12 Ole Miss (57-46)
2014: No. 2 Wisconsin lost to No. 8 Kentucky (74-73)

Recency bias makes it feel like Wisconsin has had a great decade of tournaments. The Badgers reached back-to-back Final Fours in 2014 and 2015 before pulling off a nice upset in 2016, knocking off No. 2 Xavier as a No. 7 seed. Add in 2009 when they were the No. 12 seed that upended No. 5 Florida State, and there has been a lot of good news for this program.

Unfortunately, it also had an eight-year stretch in which there were six losses to teams seeded at least four lines worse.

The worst of the bunch—both in terms of margin of defeat and margin of seed lines—came in 2010 with the 18-point loss to No. 12 Cornell.

The Big Red were on some kind of mission that year, destroying both Temple and Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16. It put a capstone on a run of 27 wins in 29 games with one of those two losses coming by just a five-point margin on the road against eventual No. 1 overall seed Kansas. Still, Trevor Hughes, Jason Bohannon and company should have been able to win that one.

A few other freight trains that ran through Wisconsin over the past decade were Steph Curry and Davidson in 2008, Butler en route to a second consecutive improbable Final Four in 2011 and Kentucky's Aaron Harrison connecting on yet another late dagger in 2014.

But what the heck happened in that loss to Ole Miss in 2013? Marshall Henderson shot just 6-of-21 from the field for the Rebels, but the Badgers couldn't make anything. Then a freshman, Sam Dekker was the only player on Wisconsin's roster to shoot better than 25 percent from the field in that game.

The Badgers bounced back in emphatic style in the following two tournaments, but that was an ugly one that cost them quite a few spots on this list.

4. (tie) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Ben Hansbrough (23) and company fell to lower-seeded Florida State in 2011.

Score: -24

Overall Record: 8-8

Upsets
2007: No. 6 Notre Dame lost to No. 11 Winthrop (74-64)
2010: No. 6 Notre Dame lost to No. 11 Old Dominion (51-50)
2011: No. 2 Notre Dame lost to No. 10 Florida State (71-57)
2012: No. 7 Notre Dame lost to No. 10 Xavier (67-63)
2013: No. 7 Notre Dame lost to No. 10 Iowa State (76-58)

Since seeding became a thing in 1979, the Fighting Irish have played 39 NCAA tournament games without a single win (in 10 tries) over a team two or more seed lines better than them. They had a pair of wins over a No. 4 seed when they were a No. 5 seed (1987 and 2003) and one win over a No. 8 seed as a No. 9 seed (1989), but those were the only times they delivered any type of upset.

Thus, even though there has been just one particularly ugly upset suffered by Notre Dame in the past decade, there weren't any good wins to help balance the equation, resulting in a tie for the fourth-most disappointing program.

What's bizarre about their ranking is they haven't often been in a position of power.

Each of the "top" three teams on this list had at least six tournaments in which they were a No. 4 seed or better—meaning they had to at least reach the Sweet 16 to avoid a letdown. Notre Dame, on the other hand, participated in just eight of the past 10 tournaments with six of those years spent in the Nos. 5-7 seed range.

If the Fighting Irish could just get out of the first round on a regular basis, they would have been fine. But until this past March when they turned a No. 6 seed into an Elite Eight appearance, those No. 10 and No. 11 seeds were their kryptonite, losing five times to double-digit seeds in a span of seven years.

In fact, a 68-50 win over No. 12 George Mason in 2008 was the only time in the past 15 years that Notre Dame looked comfortable against a double-digit seed. In addition to the five losses above, both Michigan (11) and Stephen F. Austin (14) gave the Fighting Irish fits a few months ago, Northeastern (14) nearly upset them in 2015, Akron (15) put up a solid fight in 2011 and they barely escaped with a one-point win over Milwaukee (12) in 2003.

3. Kansas Jayhawks

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Tyrel Reed and Kansas were unable to get by Ali Farokhmanesh and Northern Iowa in 2009.

Score: -35

Overall Record: 27-9 (2008 champs; 2012 title game)

Upsets
2007: No. 1 Kansas lost to No. 2 UCLA (68-55)
2010: No. 1 Kansas lost to No. 9 Northern Iowa (69-67)
2011: No. 1 Kansas lost to No. 11 VCU (71-61)
2013: No. 1 Kansas lost to No. 4 Michigan (87-85)
2014: No. 2 Kansas lost to No. 10 Stanford (60-57)
2015: No. 2 Kansas lost to No. 7 Wichita State (78-65)
2016: No. 1 Kansas lost to No. 2 Villanova (64-59)

For these next two teams, it's important to keep in mind that it's almost always a disappointment when they don't reach the Final Four.

Kansas has been either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in nine of the past 10 years with a No. 3 seed in 2009 serving as the one exception to that rule. The Jayhawks also won every Big 12 regular-season title along the way and have won 84.1 percent (313-59) of all games played since the start of 2006-07.

Though they "only" won one national championship and participated in just two Final Fours, there hasn't been a more consistently successful team in the country.

That only makes their tournament upsets more disappointing, though.

And this score of negative-35 doesn't even include the worst losses of the Bill Self era: No. 14 seed Bucknell and No. 13 seed Bradley in the first rounds of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Throw those into the mix, and Kansas has been gone too soon in nine of the last 12 tournaments.

Save for one good run in 2012, this program just hasn't been the same since Ali Farokhmanesh broke everyone's bracket in 2010, helping UNI topple the No. 1 overall seed. Kansas has now failed to live up to its seed potential in six of the past seven NCAA tournaments, with four of those losses coming against teams seeded at least five lines worse.

Fans love their Rock Chalk Jayhawks, but if they've been consistently picking chalk with Kansas, it has been a rough dozen years.

2. Duke Blue Devils

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Quinn Cook watches as Mercer upsets Duke in 2014.

Score: -39

Overall Record: 22-8 (2010 and 2015 champs)

Upsets
2007: No. 6 Duke lost to No. 11 VCU (79-77)
2008: No. 2 Duke lost to No. 7 West Virginia (73-67)
2009: No. 2 Duke lost to No. 3 Villanova (77-54)
2011: No. 1 Duke lost to No. 5 Arizona (93-77)
2012: No. 2 Duke lost to No. 15 Lehigh (75-70)
2014: No. 3 Duke lost to No. 14 Mercer (78-71)

As was the case with Kansas, Duke usually needs to at least reach the Elite Eight to avoid a letdown.

The Blue Devils have earned three No. 1 seeds, four No. 2 seeds and nothing worse than a No. 6 seed in the past decade. Two of those No. 1 seeds resulted in national championships, which makes it hard to argue that this has been one of the most disappointing teams.

But, to some extent, they were supposed to win those titles. They weren't the No. 1 overall seed in 2010 or 2015, but the Blue Devils were one of the top five candidates to win it all in each of those dances.

What they weren't supposed to do was lose to a No. 14 and a No. 15 seed in the span of three years.

Even if everything else had played perfectly to form over the past decade, those losses to Lehigh and Mercer would have done enough damage to give Duke a score of negative-24, which would have resulted in a three-way tie with Notre Dame and Wisconsin for third place. Those prior losses to VCU, West Virginia and Arizona merely cemented Duke's spot in the top two.

Which path will the Blue Devils take in 2016-17? They'll enter the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship. If they come up short, though, it could hardly be a considered a new development.

1. Georgetown Hoyas

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Nate Lubick in the 2013 loss to Florida Gulf Coast

Score: -45

Overall Record: 7-7 (2007 Final Four)

Upsets
2008: No. 2 Georgetown lost to No. 10 Davidson (74-70)
2010: No. 3 Georgetown lost to No. 14 Ohio (97-83)
2011: No. 6 Georgetown lost to No. 11 VCU (74-56)
2012: No. 3 Georgetown lost to No. 11 NC State (66-63)
2013: No. 2 Georgetown lost to No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (78-68)
2015: No. 4 Georgetown lost to No. 5 Utah (75-64)

No program has had a worse reputation for NCAA tournament disappointments over the past decade, so this is precisely what was expected before even beginning the research.

From 2008-13, Georgetown had just about the most pathetic stretch of postseasons imaginable, serving as an important chapter of the best Cinderella stories in recent memory.

In 2008, the Hoyas were just one of the stepping stones in the 25-game winning streak that led Steph Curry and Davidson to the Elite Eight. Three years later, they had the misfortune of running into VCU's "Havoc" defense before most of the world had even been introduced to the term. And two years after that, it was Georgetown that allowed "Dunk City" to become a national phenomenon.

Had those been the only bad losses suffered during that six-year span, we would probably view the Hoyas in a different light; the unfortunate victims of the tournament selection committee's bracketing process, consistently thrown into the path of the teams destined to shock the world.

But they also missed one of those tournaments (losing to Baylor in the first round of the 2009 NIT), were eviscerated by No. 14 seed Ohio in 2010 and lost to yet another double-digit seed in 2012. By the time Florida Gulf Coast was putting the finishing, emphatic touches on its first-round win in 2013, there wasn't a college basketball fan left who would ever feel comfortable picking the Hoyas to win in March again.

Since then, they've been to just one of the past three tournaments, and you're lying if you say you didn't think they were going to lose to No. 13 seed Eastern Washington during that lone trip.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.