5 NBA Rookies Who Should Be Starters in 2016-17
There's a rush to judgment with everything in today's sports world, and NBA rookies often get the worst of it. No sooner has commissioner Adam Silver announced selections before they're graded and anointed as franchise saviors, busts or anything in between.
Truth be told, it takes years to accurately assess how these young hoopers transition to the big stage. But a good chunk of freshmen will provide immediate returns, and a select few could make major contributions in their initial campaigns.
Starting spots aren't handed out to rookies based on talent alone, though that obviously plays a major part. Opportunities are also determined by the overall roster makeup and whether a franchise intends on competing or developing young talent.
Over the past five seasons, 30 players started more than 41 games as rookies. That's an average of six per year. My crystal ball only sees five freshmen clearing that mark, but there are a couple who could be surprise members of this select group.
The Long Shots
1 of 6
Caris LeVert, Brooklyn Nets
After undergoing three foot surgeries over the past two years, Caris LeVert needed to find a risk-taker on draft night. The Brooklyn Nets, trying to engineer a rebuild with limited assets, proved willing to wager that the 6'7" combo guard's upside overshadows his myriad medical red flags.
LeVert boasts borderline-lottery talent as both a capable creator on the ball and deadeye sniper away from it. The Nets had to pounce on his potential since their youth movement has been stunted by the draft debts they have already paid and still owe to the Boston Celtics.
LeVert won't start the season as Brooklyn's primary 2. He needs to get healthy first—he's still recovering from a late-March procedure—and the Nets have more stable options in veterans Bojan Bogdanovic and Randy Foye. But if LeVert's frame holds up and his across-the-board skills can transition to the NBA game, he could rocket up the rotation as the organization aims to develop what little young talent it has.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers finally seem ready to reap the full rewards of The Process with Ben Simmons arriving on draft night, Joel Embiid (fingers crossed) getting healthy and Dario Saric coming stateside. But even that can't cover up the glaring holes across their wings, vacancies that could make No. 24 pick Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot a sneaky-good candidate to snag a starting spot.
The 21-year-old French swingman is coming off a breakout season for Mega Leks of the Adriatic League. At 6'6", 205 pounds, he's built to withstand the NBA's physicality. And his improving long-range stroke—career-best 37.2 percent in league play last season—highlights his intriguing three-and-D potential.
He's admittedly raw, and Sixers head coach Brett Brown has already said Luwawu-Cabarrot could serve in the NBA Developmental League "from time to time," per Sixers.com's Brian Seltzer. But if the prospect proves a quick learner, there are few roadblocks to the big-league rotation. His ceiling sits higher than Nik Stauskas' and his development should trump the production of veterans Jerryd Bayless and Gerald Henderson.
Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
2 of 6
Drafted: Eighth overall
Primary Competition: Jared Dudley, Dragan Bender
Marquese Chriss looks more like a long-term NBA project than an opening-night contributor. The 19-year-old is an athletic freak, possessing a lethal blend of quickness, explosiveness and mobility for someone his size (6'10", 233 lbs). But his feel for the game is a work in progress, which has greatly reduced his impact as both a rebounder and defender.
That said, he could not have found a better situation to quickly climb the ladder. Phoenix overhauled their power forward spot this offseason. The Suns subtracted Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic—after dumping Markieff Morris at the trade deadline—and added Chriss, fellow rookie Dragan Bender and former franchise favorite Jared Dudley. Plus, Phoenix should be in the patient stages of its rebuild.
There's an opening for major minutes, and Chriss' combo of size, speed and skill could net him that spot.
"Chriss was one of the draft board's biggest risers during the season and over the spring because of his bounciness and potential skill. ... At 6'10" with wheels, he's the prototypical modern-day power forward," Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore wrote. "He can guard multiple positions, and the hope is he evolves into more than just a pogo-stick scorer."
Chriss' athletic tools make him an asset in transition and on off-ball cuts. During his lone season of college ball, he flashed a capable three-point stroke (35 percent), a rapid first step and some crafty finishes in the post. That means he could stretch out an NBA defense, blow by slower defenders and punish smaller ones with his back to the basket.
Even his weaknesses align fairly well with what Phoenix has. He's almost comically averse to passing (0.8 assists per game), but the Suns have enough guards that they shouldn't need much playmaking from their bigs. And his rebounding woes will be mitigated playing alongside Tyson Chandler and Alex Len, who combined for 24.5 boards per 36 minutes last season.
If the Suns had 2017 playoff aspirations, then leaning heavily on Dudley would make sense. But they tied for 28th in net efficiency and endured a 2-28 stretch last season. Focusing on the future over the present is an obvious play here. While that could make Bender, the No. 4 pick, another starting candidate, Chriss is better equipped to withstand the NBA's physical demands right now.
Buddy Hield, New Orleans Pelicans
3 of 6
Drafted: Sixth overall
Primary Competition: Tyreke Evans, E'Twaun Moore
Buddy Hield won't be Buddy Buckets for the New Orleans Pelicans; not as an NBA freshman, at least, and maybe never like he was for the Oklahoma Sooners.
But that says much more about his prolific collegiate career than it does his professional potential. He just capped a season for the ages, netting both the John Wooden Award and James Naismith Trophy after averaging 25.0 points on 50.1 percent shooting and 4.0 triples per night at a 45.7 percent clip. Anyone expecting a sequel will be greatly disappointed.
But the Pelicans will be glad to welcome such a massive lift for their organization. Hield's long-range cannon will be a Day 1 asset. His infectious personality and gym-rat mentality will ignite an organization that spent last season spinning its wheels. And his prolific scoring arsenal, combined with limited competition on the perimeter, will earn him a starting spot sooner rather than later.
"Things are set up in his favor for this Pelicans team because of his positioning on the totem pole," CBS Sports' Zach Harper wrote. "All he has to do is learn to play team defense, not be a red carpet in man-to-man defense and knock down shots when given the opportunity."
New Orleans desperately needs Hield's scoring. Despite having MVP-in-waiting Anthony Davis and offensive mastermind Alvin Gentry, the Pellies finished just 16th in offensive efficiency last season. They had a mid-level three-point attack—15th in makes, ninth in percentage—and lost their two best snipers in free agency (Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon).
It's Hield's job to not only help replace that volume but also keep defenses from collapsing on Davis. The rookie isn't the only perimeter puzzle piece, but he already appears the most attractive option. Tyreke Evans (knee) won't be ready to start the season and is just a 28.8 percent three-point shooter for his career. E'Twaun Moore just finished his best year as a pro—and averaged only 7.5 points and 21.4 minutes.
Hield needs to improve his playmaking and defense as he transitions into a more complementary role. But his NBA-ready range and powerful scoring punch fill immediate needs in the Big Easy.
Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves
4 of 6
Drafted: Fifth overall
Primary Competition: Ricky Rubio
For the first time in three seasons, the Minnesota Timberwolves won't have the NBA's top pick on their roster. But that may not break their streak of consecutive Rookie of the Year awards.
Kris Dunn isn't the front-runner to follow in the footsteps of Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. But the former Providence star sits second behind No. 1 pick Ben Simmons, according to both Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and ESPN.com's Summer Forecast.
Dunn's appeal resides in his ability to do a little of everything. He was college basketball's only player to average at least 16 points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals last season—marks that hadn't been cleared since 2005-06. He then tallied 48 points, 14 rebounds, six assists, four steals and two blocks over two games at the Las Vegas Summer League before being shut down by a concussion.
None of this guarantees similar production in the Association, of course, but all of it showcases Dunn's immense talent. He is overloaded with natural gifts (6'4" with a 6'9 ½" wingspan) and supplements them with hyperaggressiveness at both ends. His defensive intensity will endear him to head coach/president Tom Thibodeau, and Dunn's distributing could enhance the outputs of Wiggins, Towns and Zach LaVine.
Still, it's quite possible Dunn doesn't begin his rookie year as a starter. Incumbent Ricky Rubio is better than his public perception—fifth among point guards in ESPN.com's real plus-minus last season—and at 25 years old, he still has time to grow. There have been reports of Minnesota "shopping" Rubio, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, but Thibodeau has opined his lead guards could share the floor.
"I think they have good size; they have good toughness," Thibodeau said, per Marcus R. Fuller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "It's a different look. ... They're both capable of playing off each other."
But they could be more valuable apart. Dunn looks like the better fit for this roster, because of his age (22) and improving outside shot (37.2 percent last season). Rubio has enough value to help land a missing piece, though Minnesota doesn't have to rush to deal him. It may not even matter how long Rubio sticks around—Dunn looks like he'll play his way into the opening group regardless of his competition.
Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers
5 of 6
Drafted: Second overall
Primary Starting Competition: Luol Deng
Eye tests don't always reveal the full depth of a scouting report, but in the case of Brandon Ingram, what you see is a lot of what you get. His strengths are impossible to miss, from the go-go-gadget 7'3" wingspan sprawling out of his 6'9" frame to his seemingly effortless ability to get buckets. His biggest weakness is equally apparent—a paper-thin, 196-pound build that is crying out for more strength and bulk.
But the former is an innate asset that few players have, while the latter is a challenge that can be overcome. In other words, there are far more reasons to be excited about Ingram's ability than there are worries over whether he'll successfully transition to the NBA.
The Los Angeles Lakers needed a player like Ingram to help them navigate through the post-Kobe Bryant era. Ingram could be a walking mismatch on offense, as he's deadly from distance, smooth off the dribble, bigger than most wings and more skilled than most bigs. Defensively, his length, mobility and toughness should allow him to cycle through multiple assignments.
He offers more potential than production, as both his game and his body need to mature. But his sky-high ceiling and present talent have already made him a favorite of new head coach Luke Walton.
"I don't know if he's the best (player in the draft) or not, but he's the player I wanted, for sure," Walton said, per Mark Medina of the Orange County Register. "You can tell pretty quickly, when a kid is that special, what he can do on a basketball court. What he has the potential of doing, and what he can already do at his age with his length and skill, is very impressive and unique."
Walton's support is key because Ingram doesn't have a clear path to a starting gig. Free-agency addition Luol Deng, now the team's highest-paid player, per Basketball Insiders, and former lottery pick Julius Randle have the opening forward spots controlled at the moment.
But Ingram won't be easy to sit, especially once the Lakers fall back into the Western Conference cellar. The 18-year-old means as much to this restoration process as any player sporting purple and gold, and his maturation would only accelerate by logging more minutes. Even if he doesn't begin the year as a starter, he'll close it as one.
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
6 of 6
Drafted: First overall
Primary Starting Competition: Robert Covington, Hollis Thompson
The merits of Philly's complete teardown and rebuild hinge on the NBA success of Ben Simmons. No, he's not the lone blue-chip talent delivered by years of embracing the loss column. But he is the key to unlocking the Sixers' potential.
The 6'10" point forward carries once-in-a-generation potential. He's a visionary playmaker, cut from the same passing cloth as super-sized quarterbacks LeBron James and Magic Johnson. The rest of Simmons' game is still taking shape—he badly needs a jumper and a fully engaged defensive motor—but his size-plus-skill combo and elite athleticism push his upside higher than any player in this rookie class.
"The 19-year-old Australian's talent is so visible that it burns through the fog," The Ringer's Ben Detrick wrote. "Simmons, a 6'10" Range Rover with the ability to rifle pinpoint passes while accelerating up the floor—singularly clarifies the Sixers' roster composition, offensive philosophy and style of play."
Simmons has an absurd amount on his plate for an NBA freshman. He'll not only be Philly's offensive focal point from opening night, he'll also be tasked with unraveling the club's crowded frontcourt. He'll have to find touches for and know the tendencies of Embiid, Saric, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, all while occupying one of the primary scoring roles himself.
The challenge is incredible, but so too is the opportunity. Simmons will get all the minutes he can handle (and maybe more), which is why he's sitting in pole position on nearly every Rookie of the Year watch list. He averaged 34.9 minutes during his lone season at LSU and should come close to matching that number over his initial campaign with the Sixers.
Nominally, Simmons is battling the likes of Robert Covington, Hollis Thompson and Jerami Grant for the starting 3 slot. But in reality, the only minutes up for grabs are those behind Simmons.
He'll be a full-time starter for the Sixers this season—and ideally for the next decade-plus.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com.
