Why Top 4 Is a Realistic Aim for Liverpool in 2016/17 Season
Jurgen Klopp leads his Liverpool squad into his first full campaign on Merseyside in 2016/17, and after a reasonable start to life in the Anfield dugout in 2015/16, he will be looking for continued improvement.
The Reds finished eighth in the Premier League last term, though this disappointing finish was offset by their strong runs to finals in the UEFA Europa League and the Capital One Cup—despite defeat in both, this served as a marker of progress under Klopp, who succeeded Brendan Rodgers in October.
Rewarding Klopp with a six-year contract extension at the beginning of July, club owner Fenway Sports Group released a statement lauding his role in Liverpool's "overall improvement and development:"
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"When you have an individual of Jurgen’s quality in the building it makes perfect sense to secure that person for the long term. To not do so would be irresponsible.
The overriding motivation behind this decision is Jurgen’s commitment to overall improvement and development. In Jurgen we have someone who is always looking ahead, always looking beyond his own wants and needs and putting the club first.
[...]
He is a world-class managerial talent and his leadership will be critical to everything we hope to achieve in the years ahead.
"
While principal owner John W. Henry and chairman Tom Werner haven't publicly outlined objectives for Klopp following the extension of his terms, Rodgers, speaking to the Belfast Telegraph's Steven Beacom in March, said the German would need to "win the league" during his time with the club to match their expectations.
That, according to Rodgers, would mark an improvement on his Reds side's second-place finish in 2013/14, and this summer, Klopp finds himself in a similar position to the Ulsterman ahead of that campaign: preparing for a season without the demands of European football stretching his squad.
Nevertheless, owing to a number of factors, Henry, Werner and the Liverpool supporters should earmark a top-four finish in the Premier League as a realistic aim for Klopp in 2016/17.
Finishing in the Top 4
Ending the season in the Premier League's top four is widely considered the minimum objective for a number of sides competing in the English top flight, with failure to secure Champions League football deemed a collapse for the likes of Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and, on a lesser scale, both Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.
With six clubs traditionally battling for four spots, this ensures the Premier League is one of the most hotly contested club competitions in Europe. The rise of a host of other clubs in recent years has magnified this.
Southampton, West Ham United and last season's champions, Leicester City, can also consider themselves major contenders—with improvement at each club this summer reinforcing their claims.
This highlights the challenge facing Liverpool in 2016/17. And while there are many variables, mathematically, the Reds are likely required to reach a number of targets to ensure they finish in the top four:
- In the past five seasons, clubs finishing in the Premier League's top four have scored at least 62 goals.
- However, in the past five seasons, top-four clubs have scored an average of 76.3 goals.
- Furthermore, in the past five seasons, top-four clubs have conceded at most 50 goals.
- This is something of an anomaly, however, offset by the 101 goals scored by Liverpool in 2013/14.
- On average, top-four clubs have conceded just 37.6 goals.
- The most meagre goal difference of a top-four side over the past five seasons is plus-25.
- Finally, on average over the past five seasons, clubs in the top four have required 78.1 points, just over two points per game.
Last season, Liverpool scored 63 goals, conceding 50, leaving them with a goal difference of just plus-13—tellingly, that was worse than the seven clubs to finish above them—and an average of 1.58 points per game.
Therefore, Klopp's side will require a more prolific attack, a more rigid defensive structure and a more ruthless approach overall.
This could prove a hard task, however, with the new Premier League season promising to be one of the most competitive in years, owing to an injection of broadcasting funds and the resulting influx of top-level talent both on the pitch and in the dugout.
Liverpool's Rivals for 2016/17
In February of last year, the Premier League sealed a combined £5.136 billion deal with broadcasters Sky Sports and BT Sport for the rights to showcase action from the English top flight for 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19, and BBC Sport revealed this to be a 71 per cent increase on their previous agreement.
This will average at £10.19 million paid per game, with 168 games to be broadcast each season, promising lucrative ramifications for Premier League clubs.
As BBC Sport's Ben Smith detailed on the announcement of this record deal, every side competing in England's top tier will benefit financially:
"This incredible sum of money means the club that finishes bottom of the Premier League in the 2016/17 season will pocket £99 million.
The champions will earn more than £150 million in prize money and that is before additional fees are paid to clubs who stage more TV matches than others.
In the past, there have been increased TV deals spent on better players, bigger transfer fees and higher wages. That is likely to happen again, at least to some extent, and may even help England's best clubs bridge the gap to the likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Champions League.
It also means that all 20 Premier League clubs could break into the top 30 richest clubs in the world—currently they all occupy a place in the top 40. Burnley are richer than Ajax.
But this deal takes the Premier League into a new stratosphere and is bound to have a lasting impact on the field. It may not be long until the days of the first £100 million Premier League player, who is paid £500,000 per week.
"
While the summer is yet to yield its first £100 million player, the Guardian's Alan Smith and Fabrizio Romano revealed United's prospective deal to bring Paul Pogba back to Old Trafford from Juventus could see them sanction an outlay of around £108 million including add-ons.
Furthermore, this summer has already seen the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal secure several big-money targets, highlighting the Premier League's growing opulence:
- Sadio Mane, Southampton to Liverpool, £36 million.
- Granit Xhaka, Borussia Monchengladbach to Arsenal, £34 million.
- Michy Batshuayi, Marseille to Chelsea, £33.2 million.
- N'Golo Kante, Leicester City to Chelsea, £32 million.
- Eric Bailly, Villarreal to Manchester United, £30 million.
- Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Borussia Dortmund to Manchester United, £26.3 million.
- Georginio Wijnaldum, Newcastle United to Liverpool, £25 million.
- Ilkay Gundogan, Borussia Dortmund to Manchester City, £21 million.
- Vincent Janssen, AZ Alkmaar to Tottenham Hotspur, £18.6 million.
- Jordon Ibe, Liverpool to Bournemouth, £15 million.
All fees per Sky Sports.
Furthermore, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Southampton and Watford have all sealed deals worth over £10 million, showing the spread of wealth from title challengers to relegation candidates.
Following this influx of top-class talent are a host of big-name managers, with Pep Guardiola, Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho all joining Premier League sides, as well as luminaries such as Claude Puel and Walter Mazzarri.
On paper at least, Liverpool will face major competition for a top-four finish in 2016/17, with any number of ambitious clubs capable of vying for Champions League qualification come May.
How Liverpool Could Triumph
However, Liverpool supporters can still hold out hope for a strong campaign from Klopp and his new-look Reds side, with the German overseeing considerable improvement on a number of fronts so far this summer.
The arrival of German goalkeeper Loris Karius from Mainz 05 serves to improve fortunes between the sticks, with the 23-year-old keeping four clean sheets from four games this pre-season to date, cutting an assured figure that marks a stark contrast from the shrinking Simon Mignolet.
Furthermore, the addition of former Schalke 04 centre-back Joel Matip on a free transfer has added height (6'4"), strength and a front-footed defensive option to Klopp's back line, while Ragnar Klavan's experience and composure will also prove invaluable.
Promising Serbian midfielder Marko Grujic looks set to add more energy and physicality to Klopp's midfield ranks, along with a welcome goalscoring presence from deep, while Georginio Wijnaldum and Sadio Mane—who each scored 11 Premier League goals in 2015/16—add to the 49-year-old's options in attack.
Building shrewdly on his squad this summer, Klopp can also hope to benefit from the continued development of Mamadou Sakho, Emre Can, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino and Divock Origi, among others, as they adjust to his demanding tactical ideals.
Perhaps the most crucial factor in Liverpool's hopes for sealing a top-four finish in 2016/17 is the Reds' failure to qualify for European football last season could move from being a negative to a positive.
Rodgers' Liverpool enjoyed an exceptional campaign in 2013/14, largely owing to the rejuvenating merits of playing just 43 games—an average of one game every 6.2 days, compared to last season's average of a game every 4.5 days.
Despite facing considerable competition for a top-four placing in 2016/17, Klopp and his Reds squad can hope this streamlined fixture list will aid their efforts. It's a realistic aim for an impressive group of players helmed by a manager Henry and Werner described as a "world-class managerial talent."
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