Breaking Down the Ambrose-Reigns-Rollins Triple Threat at WWE Battleground

On Sunday at Battleground, Dean Ambrose, Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins will square off against each other in a Triple Threat match for the WWE Championship.

This match should have taken place at WrestleMania 32. Instead, it's taking place at Battleground, one month before SummerSlam.

The hype is not as high as it could be. The stakes are not as high as they should be. But the in-ring chemistry between these three wrestlers is unmatched, and that will carry the day.

Moreover, this match contains two underlying narratives that complicate its outcome. The first is the fallout of Tuesday evening's WWE draft. The second is the fallout of Roman Reigns' suspension.

Reigns completed a 30-day suspension for his violation of the WWE wellness policy. That didn't affect his pay-per-view appearances; the suspension fell auspiciously between Money in the Bank and Battleground.

It may, however, have affected his standing with WWE chairman Vince McMahon. Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter reported McMahon was "very upset" with Reigns (h/t Raj Giri of Wrestling Inc.), and who can blame him?

Reigns has been pushed over every competitor on the roster for the past two years. He's won every feud he's been in: Bray Wyatt, Randy Orton, his fellow Shield brothers and even Triple H. He's won the Royal Rumble. He's participated in two WrestleMania main events.

For Reigns to be so careless so close to SummerSlam must have felt like a slap in the face and a breach of trust. WWE is angry; Rollins has openly trashed Reigns in his promos for "cheating," and nothing gets on TV without McMahon's approval.

So whatever happens at Battleground, Reigns will not be winning the WWE Championship. From a narrative standpoint, it's too sudden; Reigns has done zero promotion for Battleground, and it would be too jarring to hand him the company's biggest prize after a one-month layoff.

From a backstage perspective, a Reigns win would send the wrong message to the locker room—that wrestlers can violate company policies and suffer no negative setbacks. WWE is fighting a lawsuit related to past wrestlers' health problems. It won't look good in court if the current WWE champion is a recent wellness-policy offender.

Could it turn Reigns heel tomorrow? That's always a possibility. As it is, despite being booked as a babyface, Reigns is booed by a significant fraction of audiences. His recent drug scandal will increase the number of displeased fans, and WWE might finally decide to follow the crowd.

Regardless of what happens, Reigns will be in the main event picture for the foreseeable future. There will always be a place in WWE for a guy with his look, bloodlines and raw athleticism. But will he be "the guy," to use his words? Not until he earns back McMahon's trust.

Seth Rollins is a more likely winner than Reigns, but that's still a tough sell for WWE Creative—to kill Ambrose's first title run so quickly. It has spent so many collective hours promoting its new, live SmackDown. It's being billed as an intense, exciting, worthy competitor to Raw, and it wouldn't make sense to undermine that perception by having Ambrose, the face of SmackDown, lose.

WWE will be giving SmackDown every possible chance to succeed. That's why AJ Styles was drafted to SmackDown. That's why John Cena was drafted to SmackDown. And having the WWE Championship on SmackDown is part of that success strategy.

Rollins will be champion again, probably sooner rather than later. He still needs to wrap up his "return to form," post-injury angle, and it's clear the company has faith in him. But it would be wise to save The Architect's coronation for SummerSlam, where it will carry greater significance.

Credit: WWE.com

That leaves Ambrose, who will walk out of Battleground with the win and belt. It's not exciting. It's not surprising. But historically, Battleground has never been a hotbed of surprises and swerves.

The main event for Battleground 2013 ended in a no-contest. The main event for Battleground 2014 ended with the champion retaining the title. The main event for Battleground 2015 ended in a disqualification. The WWE Championship has never changed hands at Battleground, and don't expect it to happen this year, either.

Ambrose might win clean, but more likely, Battleground 2016's main event will also end in a no-contest. We'll have to wait until SummerSlam to get the high-stakes Triple Threat championship match that we've been anticipating. And this time, it'll be stipulated with a steel cage or a ladder so that fans can watch a massive culmination to this feud on the biggest stage possible.