Predicting the Top 10 Countries in the Final 2016 Olympics Medal Count
The United States of America has earned the most medals at every Summer Olympics dating back to 1996. But will China, Great Britain or Germany be able to put an end to that streak this August in Rio?
You hopefully don't need any help deciding which country you should be rooting for next month, but knowing where countries are likely to finish in the total medal count isn't nearly as easy.
We looked back at how the top countries fared in each of the past four Summer Olympics—noting their biggest strengths and weaknesses—to get a sense of what to expect this year. Take it to the bank that South Korea will win some medals in archery, Italy will fare well in fencing and China will reign supreme in table tennis.
But what else will transpire in Rio?
Here's our prediction for the final medal standings at the 2016 Summer Olympics.
10. South Korea
1 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 28 (10)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 30 (10)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 31 (8)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 28 (10)
Total Count (Rank): 117 (10)
Strongest Event: Archery
Each year, 12 medals are earned for archery: three each for men's individual, men's team, women's individual and women's team. Thus, from 2000-12, there were 48 medals awarded. Take into consideration that a country can only win one of the three medals in each team event, and the maximum number of medals a country could have earned during that time is 32.
South Korea has 18, winning at least four in each of the past four Olympics.
The other two events in which South Korea earned at least four medals in 2012 were fencing and shooting.
Weakest Event: Track and Field
South Korea has not won a single medal in track and field in any of the past four Summer Olympics.
9. Italy
2 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 34 (7)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 32 (8)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 27 (9)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 28 (9)
Total Count (Rank): 121 (8)
Strongest Event: Fencing
There are three types of swords in fencing: Epee, Foil and Sabre.
Italy owned foil at the 2012 Olympics. Its men's and women's foil teams both won gold, and it took gold, silver and bronze in the individual women's foil. Though not quite as dominant in 2008, Italy has earned seven medals in fencing in each of the past two Summer Olympics.
Italy is also good at hitting projectile targets, winning a combined eight medals in shooting in 2008 and 2012.
Weakest Event: Swimming
Back in 2000, Domenico Fioravanti and Massimiliano Rosolino led Italy to three golds and six total medals in swimming. Since then, the Italians have a combined total of just five medals, with a bronze in the women's 10-kilometer marathon being the only hardware earned in 2012.
8. France
3 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 38 (6)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 33 (7)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 41 (7)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 34 (8)
Total Count (Rank): 146 (7)
Strongest Event: Judo
There are a total of 14 weight classes in judo (seven men's and seven women's), and France medaled in half of them in 2012.
Teddy Riner is one of the best in the history of the sport. He has won gold in the plus-100 kilogram weight class at every World Championship and Olympic Games since 2009. For good measure, he also won gold in five European Championships in the past decade. If he doesn't win a medal for France, it would be the biggest Olympic upset since the "Miracle on Ice" in 1980.
France is also great in team handball, where its men are the two-time reigning gold medalists.
Weakest Event: Gymnastics
France won just one bronze medal in gymnastics in 2012 and has a grand total of six gymnastics medals at the past four Summer Olympics. With a total of 42 medals awarded in gymnastics each year, falling flat in that area is what consistently keeps France out of the top five.
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7. Japan
4 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 18 (14)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 37 (6)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 25 (11)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 38 (6)
Total Count (Rank): 118 (9)
Strongest Event: Swimming
Though it didn't win a single gold for swimming in London, Japan finished second to USA in total swimming medals with three silver and eight bronze.
Ryosuke Irie came the closest to gold, finishing 0.81 seconds behind USA's Matthew Grevers in the 100-meter backstroke and 0.37 seconds behind USA's Tyler Clary in the 200-meter backstroke. The 26-year-old will be back in the pool this year as part of Japan's 34-person swim team.
Weakest Event: All other water events
Though its athletes are great while swimming in the water, don't expect Japan to do much on it. Japan has failed to produce a medal in rowing, canoe slalom, canoe sprint, sailing and diving in the past four Summer Olympics.
6. Australia
5 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 58 (4)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 50 (4)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 46 (5)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 35 (7)
Total Count (Rank): 189 (5)
Strongest Event: Sailing
Led by Tom Slingsby in the one-person dinghy, Australia took gold in three of the 10 sailing events in 2012. It also earned two golds and a silver in sailing in 2008. Considering Australia has been either the defender or the challenger for the America's Cup (yachting) over the past half-century, it's little surprise Australia does so well with sailing.
Australia also earned a combined 20 medals in swimming (10), rowing (five) and cycling track (five) at the 2012 Games.
Honorable mention for rugby sevens—a new Olympic event in 2016, but a sport where Australia and New Zealand should both excel.
Weakest Event: Gymnastics
Every other country in our projected top 10 for 2016 won at least one medal in gymnastics in 2012, but not Australia. In fact, Australia hasn't produced a single medal in gymnastics in any Summer Olympics during this millennium.
5. Russia
6 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 89 (2)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 90 (2)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 73 (3)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 79 (3)
Total Count (Rank): 331 (2)
Strongest Event: Wrestling
Russia won 11 medals for wrestling at the 2012 Olympics, while the other nine countries on this list combined for just 13.
Weakest Event: Rowing
Of Russia's 331 medals in the last four Summer Olympics, only two came from rowing.
Russia would be either No. 2 or No. 3 on the list if not for the doping scandal that is going to keep it from participating in many events. It has already been upheld that Russia's 68-person track and field team will be banned from competing in the Olympics, per the BBC.
Considering 18 of Russia's 79 medals in 2012 came from track and field, that's going to hurt its medal count.
It will likely still finish in the top 10, but only if there aren't more bans forthcoming.
4. Germany
7 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 56 (5)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 49 (5)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 41 (6)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 44 (5)
Total Count (Rank): 190 (4)
Strongest Event: Canoeing/Rowing
Between canoe sprint, canoe slalom and rowing, Germany won a combined 11 medals at the 2012 Games, including five golds.
Sebastian Brendel finished first in the 1,000-meter canoe sprint and has to be considered the favorite to do so again this year. He won gold in that event in both the 2014 and 2015 World Championships, as well as the 2014 and 2015 European Games.
Weakest Event: Swimming
Whereas Japan swims well and struggles on watercraft, Germany is much better off on the water than in it. A silver medal won by Thomas Lurz in the men's 10-kilometer marathon was the only thing that kept Germany from being completely shut out of the 34 swimming events in London four years ago.
3. Great Britain
8 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 28 (9)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 30 (9)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 47 (4)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 65 (4)
Total Count (Rank): 170 (6)
Strongest Event: Cycling Track
There are only 10 medal events in cycling track, but Great Britain won gold in seven of them in 2012. Moreover, Great Britain won a total of 12 medals for cycling track in 2008, "double dipping" in four of the 10 events in Beijing.
Great Britain also won three of the 12 available medals in cycling road in 2012, which was more than any other country. It didn't medal in cycling mountain bike or BMX, but put Great Britain on a bicycle on relatively flat land and it's probably going to win.
Weakest Event: Swimming
For a country that racks up a good number of Olympic medals every four years, Great Britain doesn't do much in the pool. It won a total of just nine swimming medals between 2008 and 2012, and it has Rebecca Adlington to thank for four of those. However, she retired not long after the 2012 Games. Will Great Britain swim its way to any medals in Rio?
2. China
9 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 58 (3)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 63 (3)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 100 (2)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 88 (2)
Total Count (Rank): 309 (3)
Strongest Event: Table Tennis
China excels in a lot of events. It had more 2012 medals in diving, gymnastics, weightlifting, shooting, badminton, taekwondo and trampoline gymnastics than any other country in our projected top 10 for 2016.
But China absolutely owns table tennis. In 2012, it won gold and silver in both the men's and women's individual events and gold in both team events. In 2008, it won every medal possible, taking gold in both team events and sweeping gold, silver and bronze in the men's and women's individuals.
Weakest Event: Track and Field
China did well in the 20- and 50-kilometer race walk events in 2012, but it only earned a total of six medals in the 47 track and field events. This after earning just two medals on the track in the 2008 Games. Meanwhile, USA won 52 medals in track and field between 2008 and 2012. The gap between those two countries over the last two Summer Games is 61 total medals—with 44 of them coming in this realm.
1. United States
10 of 10
2000 Medal Count (Rank): 93 (1)
2004 Medal Count (Rank): 101 (1)
2008 Medal Count (Rank): 110 (1)
2012 Medal Count (Rank): 103 (1)
Total Count (Rank): 407 (1)
Strongest Event: Swimming
Thanks in large part to Michael Phelps, USA has dominated swimming for more than a decade. And with Katie Ledecky just 19 years old, USA is in great shape to swim laps around the rest of the world for at least another eight to 12 years. Both will be in action in Rio, potentially bringing home a combined 10 medals.
USA earned 31 medals in swimming at the 2012 Olympics. That's 30 percent of all medals it won that year and equal to the combined total of the next three countries—Japan (11), China (10) and Australia (10).
Weakest Event: Weightlifting
USA runs, jumps, swims and flips better than just about every country, but it doesn't lift well at all.
Tara Nott and Cheryl Haworth each won medals in weightlifting in 2000, but USA has been completely shut out of every weight class since then.
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