Fantasy Football Mock Draft 2016: Round-by-Round Expert Projections
Depending on who you ask, mock drafts are either helpful or useless. I fall somewhere in the middle.
If you're looking to try out a strategy, like opening your draft with Rob Gronkowski in the first round, you can run a mock draft to get an idea of what your team might look like. You also might want to try out different draft positions if you have the option to select where you'll be slotted in your actual draft.
On the other hand, you can mock draft for weeks to prepare for the real thing only to see your plans destroyed by a totally unexpected pick or homer owner who felt the need to take Aaron Rodgers in the first round, setting off a chain-reaction quarterback run way earlier than expected.
You need to be fluid with your draft plans, so I'm using this mock draft as an exercise to show why that's so important. Instead of taking control of one team, I made the selections for every team based on specific strategies, team needs and the flow of the draft.
I used a combination of FantasyPros ADP (average draft position) and my rankings to make picks, but I also made a point to work in some common situations that happen in drafts, such as runs at certain positions (usually quarterback) and losing out on a pick before your turn comes back around. That's the true test of a fluid draft strategy.
To bring you the most useful analysis, I forwent drafting a kicker or defense. If your league mandates that those positions must be filled in the draft, just wait until the final two rounds. If you don't have to fill those positions via the draft, then I suggest hitting the waiver wire before the start of the regular season.
Because it's important to draft to the format, this is a points-per-reception (PPR) league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and two flex spots (RB/WR/TE) in the skill positions for the lineup.
Throughout this mock, I'll provide player analysis on each round and periodically check in on teams to explain draft strategy and reasoning behind certain picks.
Round 1: Wide Receivers Rule
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Round 1
1. WR Antonio Brown, PIT
2. WR Julio Jones, ATL
3. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
4. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
5. RB David Johnson, ARI
6. RB Todd Gurley, LA
7. WR A.J. Green, CIN
8. RB Lamar Miller, HOU
9. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
10. RB Adrian Peterson, MIN
11. TE Rob Gronkowski, NE
12. WR Allen Robinson, JAC
What to Do After the Top Three Picks?
Many of you have asked what to do if you are picking fourth overall. To me, the safe route goes along with the general thought that wide receivers are more reliable than running backs, so if we’re talking about any early-round picks, I’ll favor the wide receiver.
Because DeAndre Hopkins is my No. 4 wide receiver, he slots in the fourth pick. David Johnson gets strong consideration, as does my No. 5 wide receiver, A.J. Green, but I’m sticking with my overall ranking of Hopkins at four.
You won’t find a consensus after Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr., so you must be prepared for anything since the first round doesn’t start taking shape until those three come off the board. I’ve seen Todd Gurley fall all the way to seventh overall, but he’s also gone fourth overall.
Leading Off with Gronk
Personally, I’d avoid taking Rob Gronkowski in the first round because I typically don’t like how my team looks when he’s at the top, but for educational purposes, I went by his ADP of 11.3 to show how you can build your roster with him leading the way.
Round 2: Get in Your Comfort Zone
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Round 2
1. WR Dez Bryant, DAL
2. WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ
3. WR Brandin Cooks, NO
4. WR Keenan Allen, SD
5. WR T.Y Hilton, IND
6. RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
7. RB Jamaal Charles, KC
8. WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI
9. WR Amari Cooper, OAK
10. WR Jordy Nelson, GB
11. RB Mark Ingram, NO
12. RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT
The Dez Decision
From a talent standpoint, Dez Bryant is clearly one of the best wide receivers in both fantasy and reality. The reality of his fantasy value is that you must consider his quarterback situation before drafting him.
Tony Romo's back is a concern that won't be going away, and the team's top healthy backup is Dak Prescott. Despite Prescott's strong performance in the first preseason game, I'm concerned we'll see a repeat of last season when Romo missed significant time after breaking his collarbone. After he went down, the passing game never recovered.
If Romo can get through the season without any major issues, Bryant should put up monster numbers and would be considered a steal in the second round, but that "if" is big enough to give me pause before selecting him.
Inside the Mind: Team 11
After selecting Rob Gronkowski in the first, I decided to play it safe with this team's second-round selection by going with Brandon Marshall. Besides favoring the wide receiver position, Marshall has the fewest concerns of the receivers in this round and is a proven fantasy producer at a high level.
Round 3: Choose Your Own Adventure
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Round 3
1. RB Eddie Lacy, GB
2. WR Mike Evans, TB
3. RB C.J. Anderson, DEN
4. RB LeSean McCoy, BUF
5. RB Doug Martin, TB
6. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN
7. WR Golden Tate, DET
8. WR Randall Cobb, GB
9. WR Julian Edelman, NE
10. RB Carlos Hyde, SF
11. WR Sammy Watkins, BUF
12. WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
Running Back Values
The obvious effect of a heavier reliance on wide receivers is how running backs fall down the board, even though some of the names in this round are capable of being an RB1 on any fantasy roster. Fifteen of the first 24 picks were receivers (including Rob Gronkowski), so multiple teams still have a chance at a top-12 running back in the third round.
Based on ADP, Lacy is the RB10 and available in the third round, which is exactly where he goes in this draft, although I have him ranked as my RB6. Once again, to give you the best possible look at how your draft could go, I stuck with the ADP. Either way, it's a great spot to get Lacy. Anderson, Martin and Hyde are also in the top-12 conversation for me.
Inside the Mind: Team 3
By opting to start the draft with a pair of wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jordy Nelson, running back might seem like a concern, but by looking at who was still available when the Nelson selection came up, it was worth waiting another round to take the first RB for this team. Also, concerns about Nelson's knee are valid, but they don't become as worrisome with Beckham already on the team.
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Round 4: Others Join the Fray
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Round 4
1. RB Dion Lewis, NE
2. RB Thomas Rawls, SEA
3. WR Jeremy Maclin, KC
4. WR Donte Moncrief, IND
5. RB Danny Woodhead, SD
6. RB Matt Forte, NYJ
7. WR Eric Decker, NYJ
8. WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
9. QB Cam Newton, CAR
10. TE Jordan Reed, WAS
11. RB Latavius Murray, OAK
12. WR Doug Baldwin, SEA
The First Quarterback
With an ADP of 41.8 as the first QB off the board, Cam Newton is a consistent fourth-round pick, although he's not one I'd make since I'd rather wait to take my QB. However, you can justify the pick by looking at the rest of the players who went in this round. The superstars are already starting to disappear, so instead of reaching for someone you don't believe in, Newton makes sense as long as he's at least a top-three fantasy QB again in 2016. His selection didn't start a run on signal-callers…yet.
Inside the Mind: Team 12
I wanted to show what a team could look like by opening with three wide receivers. Following the selections of Allen Robinson and Dez Bryant, this team knew it had back-to-back picks in the third and fourth round, so grabbing another WR was viable with a chance to immediately take the first RB for the roster.
As long as Dion Lewis is healthy for the start of the regular season, he's a good RB1 on a team with three WRs, especially in a PPR format. However, with so much reliance on Lewis' role in the passing game, you'll see this team follow up with Matt Jones in the fifth round since he's the main ball-carrier for the Redskins.
Round 5: Will You Join the Run?
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Round 5
1. WR John Brown, ARI
2. QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
3. QB Russell Wilson, SEA
4. RB Duke Johnson, CLE
5. QB Andrew Luck, IND
6. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
7. WR DeVante Parker, MIA
8. TE Greg Olsen, CAR
9. RB Giovani Bernard, CIN
10. WR Jordan Matthews, PHI
11. RB DeMarco Murray, TEN
12. RB Matt Jones, WAS
Quarterback Run
With Cam Newton coming off the board in the fourth round, I decided to start a small QB run soon after in the fifth round with Rodgers, Wilson and Luck. It's easy to panic when you see the first or last reliable players come off the board, specifically at QB and tight end. The key is to not follow along unless you're seriously worried about missing out on an important player.
With the top four QBs off the board halfway through the fifth round, it's easy to jump aboard that run. Instead, practicing patience with the position is much smarter, as you can focus elsewhere on your roster knowing you can deal with the QB position later and during the season via the waiver wire.
Inside the Mind: Team 6
The only team to open the draft with two running backs in Todd Gurley and Jamaal Charles ends up with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald as its top WRs. Depending on who you ask, Thomas is somewhat undervalued this season, but concerns about Denver's QB situation are warranted.
This is an experienced team, which may or may not be a bad thing, although I tend to avoid mixing major players coming off big injuries with others who've been around for a while. Thus, even though they're both highly talented, having Charles and Fitzgerald on the same team isn't ideal.
Round 6: Make the Leap
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Round 6
1. QB Drew Brees, NO
2. WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
3. TE Travis Kelce, KC
4. WR Michael Floyd, ARI
5. WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
6. RB Ryan Mathews, PHI
7. WR Marvin Jones, DET
8. WR Allen Hurns, JAC
9. WR Kevin White, CHI
10. RB Jeremy Hill, CIN
11. WR Michael Crabtree, OAK
12. WR DeSean Jackson, WAS
When It's Time to Ignore ADP
If you truly believe in a player, don't wait to select him because ADP suggests he'll be available when you pick in the next round. Lockett's ADP of 75.8 puts him into the start of the seventh round, but because I believe he can make a big jump this season, I'm not risking waiting another round to take him.
Don't fall into the trap of waiting on a high-upside player like Lockett because you think you can get them at a value. That's just an excuse to brag about hitting on a player in a later round than they should have gone in the first place. Don't get cute. Someone else may have the same idea and steal him away.
Inside the Mind: Team 9
Because this team started with such a stud running back in Ezekiel Elliott, I enacted my plan of waiting on an RB2 to build up the wide receiving corps instead. That worked out well with Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman and Donte Moncrief. Following that with Giovani Bernard gave this team a prime RB2 candidate in the fifth round, which allowed the selection of Michael Floyd as a fourth WR in the sixth round.
Round 7: Polarizing Players
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Round 7
1. RB Arian Foster, MIA
2. TE Delanie Walker, TEN
3. WR Josh Gordon, CLE
4. TE Coby Fleener, NO
5. RB Frank Gore, IND
6. RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR
7. QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
8. RB Jeremy Langford, CHI
9. RB Melvin Gordon, SD
10. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET
11. WR Sterling Shepard, NYG
12. RB Charles Sims, TB
Risk vs. Reward
You can't ignore the hype around Arian Foster in Miami, as evidenced by his fantasy value skyrocketing over the last few weeks. Foster's ADP of 68.8 makes him the RB26, which is nearly 20 picks higher than teammate Jay Ajayi, who sits at the RB33 spot.
Personally, I'm doing whatever I can to avoid Miami's backfield for fantasy, but I needed to put Foster's rise into context. His name carries a lot of weight because of past fantasy success, so I understand the excitement, yet with just 25 games played over the last three seasons, it's hard to justify such an investment in Foster.
The same applies to Josh Gordon, although his problems have been off the field and he's paying for them in the form of a four-game suspension to start this season. Gordon has been a WR1 in the past, so talent shouldn't be a concern even though he's played just five games over the last two years. I'm more worried about a terrible quarterback situation in Cleveland if the Browns stick with Robert Griffin III as their starter.
Inside the Mind: Team 5
Taking Frank Gore as an RB3 behind David Johnson and Doug Martin looks good since it pushes Gore into a flex spot on this team. I'd be slightly concerned about a wide receiver corps led by Alshon Jeffery and Kelvin Benjamin and wonder if this team would have been better off getting another wide receiver instead of Andrew Luck in the fifth round. I know I'm in the minority on Jeffery, but I'm not sold on him as a WR1.
Round 8: Coming into Focus
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Round 8
1. WR Willie Snead, NO
2. RB Theo Riddick, DET
3. WR Stefon Diggs, MIN
4. QB Carson Palmer, ARI
5. RB Rashad Jennings, NYG
6. TE Zach Ertz, PHI
7. QB Tom Brady, NE
8. WR Corey Coleman, CLE
9. RB DeAngelo Williams, PIT
10. RB Chris Ivory, JAC
11. WR Torrey Smith, SF
12. RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC
Taking Shape
With seven rounds in the books, you have a good idea of what your starting lineup should look like barring injuries and/or suspensions, so the eighth round might come down to prioritizing your needs.
Jennings fits the role of a possible RB2 who you draft as more of an RB3. He's the top back for the Giants with a clear role as their bell cow. If he gets banged up or has his role decreased, it's not like you invested much in him with an eighth-round selection. He's replaceable either via your bench or the waiver wire.
The same goes for DeAngelo Williams. He went three picks before Team 1 could grab him as the handcuff for Le'Veon Bell, meaning Team 4 gets him as a plug-and-play RB for the first month of the season with the hope he's no worse than an RB2. If he has any legit fantasy value after the first four games, it's a bonus.
With Brady's four-game suspension, his value is somewhat tough to pinpoint, although I'm considering him no worse than a top-five fantasy quarterback upon his return. We'll revisit this selection in the 10th round when there's more context.
Inside the Mind: Team 11
We check back in on the team that started with Rob Gronkowski to see a nicely balanced roster. Joining established, high-end talent such as Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins are young, high-upside wide receivers in Tyler Lockett and Sterling Shepard. Team 11 took Thomas Rawls as its RB1 in the fourth round and followed that up with DeMarco Murray in the fifth. I'm not a huge Murray fan, but expectations don't have to be too high with the rest of the team around him. I also like Theo Riddick in the eighth as a PPR hound.
Round 9: What Matters Most?
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Round 9
1. QB Eli Manning, NYG
2. RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE
3. WR Vincent Jackson, TB
4. WR Markus Wheaton, PIT
5. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL
6. TE Tyler Eifert, CIN
7. WR Travis Benjamin, SD
8. WR Tavon Austin, LA
9. TE Gary Barnidge, CLE
10. QB Blake Bortles, JAC
11. RB Jay Ajayi, MIA
12. WR Kamar Aiken, BAL
Personal Preference
Would you rather have a solid veteran for the last spot in your starting lineup or a young option with a high ceiling who may not substantially contribute at the start of the season?
That could be the difference between taking Vincent Jackson and Tevin Coleman. Jackson isn't the player he once was, but he's a reliable receiver in a promising offense who should be in line for a consistent role. Coleman is expected to have more opportunities in Atlanta, yet his fantasy impact in the same backfield as Devonta Freeman is still a bit of a mystery.
Inside the Mind: Teams 3 and 5
Let's look at where Jackson and Coleman landed and why both make sense for their respective teams.
Jackson is the fourth WR on a roster that already has Odell Beckham Jr., Jordy Nelson and Josh Gordon. With Gordon suspended for the first four games of the year, Jackson can fill the third WR spot in this lineup early on and then shift into a flex spot or provide solid bench depth if need be.
Coleman finds himself behind David Johnson, Doug Martin and Frank Gore. While Johnson and Martin should be locked into the starting lineup all season, Gore's age could catch up to him and his spot as a flex starter could go to Coleman, especially if Coleman's role in Atlanta is consistent.
Round 10: Believe in the Hype
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Round 10
1. RB Derrick Henry, TEN
2. WR Michael Thomas, NO
3. RB Bilal Powell, NYJ
4. RB Justin Forsett, BAL
5. TE Julius Thomas, JAC
6. RB Shane Vereen, NYG
7. QB Derek Carr, OAK
8. TE Antonio Gates, SD
9. RB Darren Sproles, PHI
10. WR Sammie Coates, PIT
11. RB DeAndre Washington, OAK
12. WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN
More Than Hype
Every year, players get hyped up in the preseason due to their training camp performance or how they shined in game action. Ameer Abdullah fell into that category last year, but he never lived up to those lofty expectations.
There’s no avoiding the hype surrounding Michael Thomas in New Orleans, and he followed up the chatter from training camp with an exciting performance in his first preseason game. That’s all it takes to ascend up draft boards, but you have to decide if it’s real.
Rookie running backs DeAndre Washington in Oakland and Derrick Henry in Tennessee also stood out in their first preseason games, which put both of them on a lot more fantasy radars. The 10th round is not a steep price to pay for potential, but it’s the kind of potential you have the most confidence in since you expect these types of players to move into your lineup sooner rather than later.
Inside the Mind: Team 6
It’s time to revisit the Tom Brady selection from the eighth round. Knowing Brady won’t be available for the first four games due to suspension, this team needed to find a capable replacement and did so by selecting Derek Carr in the 10th round.
In my rankings, Carr is my No. 10 QB, but his ADP of 112.3 makes him the QB12. He’s one of the most attractive QBs to pair with Brady because his first four games come against the Saints, Falcons, Titans and Ravens, which is quite favorable.
If Carr can get off to a good start, this team might have a nice trade chip once Brady is back from suspension.
Round 11: Thinning Out
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Round 11
1. TE Martellus Bennett, NE
2. WR Phillip Dorsett, IND
3. RB LeGarrette Blount, NE
4. WR Steve Smith, BAL
5. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN
6. WR Pierre Garcon, WAS
7. WR Devin Funchess, CAR
8. QB Philip Rivers, SD
9. RB Terrance West, BAL
10. RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN
11. QB Jameis Winston, TB
12. TE Dwayne Allen, IND
Zeroing In
As we move into the later rounds of the draft, bench spots start to get filled, and it comes back to the conversation of safe and predictable or risky with upside.
LeGarrette Blount falls into the former category and Phillip Dorsett falls into the latter. I typically shoot a little higher in these spots since I know they can be easily replaced on the waiver wire if they don’t work out. It’s not much of a risk, so it’s worth it if a player hits big, even if it’s not for the entire season.
Inside the Mind: Team 10
Even though an ADP of 9.0 makes him the third running back off the board, I stuck with my RB5 ranking of Adrian Peterson for this draft, although that only moved him back to the 10th overall selection. With a first-round investment in a running back, this team turned its focus to wide receiver and got Brandin Cooks in the second.
It then made Carlos Hyde the only RB selected in the final seven picks of the third round. With two potential RB1s on the roster, focus shifted away from that position and back toward the receivers. Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews joined the team in the next two rounds, followed by Travis Kelce in the sixth. In hindsight, I probably should have taken a WR in the third instead of Hyde.
This round’s selection of Jerick McKinnon is a good one because he can have value independent of being Peterson’s handcuff. McKinnon is a great athlete who should contribute as a receiver on a much more regular basis this season. That’s enough reason to plug him into the lineup if needed in any given week.
Round 12: The Waiting Game Works
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Round 12
1. WR Chris Hogan, NE
2. QB Matthew Stafford, DET
3. WR Anquan Boldin, DET
4. WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL
5. QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF
6. QB Andy Dalton, CIN
7. RB Chris Thompson, WAS
8. RB Andre Ellington, ARI
9. TE Eric Ebron, DET
10. TE Jimmy Graham, SEA
11. TE Zach Miller, CHI
12. WR Bruce Ellington, SF
Lying in Wait
I’ll always preach waiting to get your quarterback, and last year was a great example why that philosophy works. Waiting for players like Eli Manning and Carson Palmer paid off, but so did hitting the waiver wire for Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins.
Nothing about that philosophy changes in 2016. Dalton has an ADP of 140.3 (QB15), Stafford has an ADP of 142.5 (QB17) and Taylor has an ADP of 144.8 (QB18). I like Stafford the most out of that group after the way he finished last year, but I would be fine with any of them as my starter. If they don’t work out, just hit the waiver wire.
Round 13: Play the Lottery
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Round 13
1. TE Clive Walford, OAK
2. RB Tim Hightower, NO
3. RB Devontae Booker, DEN
4. RB Javorius Allen, BAL
5. TE Charles Clay, BUF
6. TE Jason Witten, DAL
7. RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI
8. WR Tyler Boyd, CIN
9. QB Joe Flacco, BAL
10. RB Shaun Draughn, SF
11. WR Breshad Perriman, BAL
12. RB James White, NE
Shoot Your Shot
When you get this late in the draft, forget about ADP. Focus on players you like and go get them. If they don't work out, cutting them loose isn't a big deal with such a small investment. Hitting on a possible breakout player like Clive Walford can be huge, especially at a position that doesn't have many reliable fantasy options.
There are some stash-and-hope players in this group such as Breshad Perriman. After missing his entire rookie season, Perriman has a chance to make an impact in a jumbled Ravens receiving corps. He's working his way back from a knee injury, so it could take some time for him to get going. Because of his talent, you'd like to hang on to him for a little while to see if he hits, although that could be tough to do if you have to fill that spot to satisfy immediate needs.
Round 14-15: Backup Plans
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Round 14
1. TE Benjamin Watson, BAL
2. RB Christine Michael, SEA
3. WR Brandon LaFell, CIN
4. RB Alfred Morris, DAL
5. WR Rishard Matthews, TEN
6. RB Jordan Howard, CHI
7. RB Spencer Ware, KC
8. WR Josh Doctson, WAS
9. RB Mike Gillislee, BUF
10. WR Terrance Williams, DAL
11. WR Robert Woods, BUF
12. QB Matt Ryan, ATL
Round 15
1. RB James Starks, GB
2. WR Mike Wallace, BAL
3. RB Ronnie Hillman, DEN
4. WR Will Fuller, HOU
5. RB Chris Johnson, ARI
6. RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
7. WR Cole Beasley, DAL
8. RB Tyler Ervin, HOU
9. TE Vance McDonald, SF
10. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB
11. RB C.J. Prosise, SEA
12. QB Kirk Cousins, WAS
Give Yourself Options
I'd like to highlight Team 3 and Team 11 for examples of getting the most out of your final picks.
Team 3's top running back is C.J. Anderson. Both Ronnie Hillman and rookie Devontae Booker are behind Anderson on Denver's depth chart, and there's a chance Hillman doesn't make the final roster. Booker has more upside as the younger player, so it made sense to take him before Hillman. However, grabbing Hillman allows you to sit on both players until the backup situation is a little clearer by the end of the preseason. If it doesn't clear up, you can always cut one or both without a problem.
Team 11's situation is similar. Thomas Rawls is the top RB on that team, but he's coming back from an ankle injury and Seattle isn't rushing him back. In the meantime, Christine Michael is the top healthy back for the Seahawks and looks like he has a fairly strong hold as the backup to Rawls. C.J. Prosise is raw but talented rookie for the Seahawks, so many have grabbed him as a late-round flier. He may not have any role when the season begins, in which case this team can keep Michael as insurance for Rawls and cut Prosise.
Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for providing stats.
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