NASCAR at New Hampshire 2016: Preview, Prediction for the New Hampshire 301
Kyle Busch held up the King of All Lobsters, the only living trophy (that we know of) in the Sprint Cup Series, in the New Hampshire 301 in 2015.
Busch gunned his car to get on the lead lap late in the race and hauled his car through traffic in the final 50 to earn the top spot.
He said in Reid Spencer’s NASCAR.com story:
"We shot to pit road and got it changed there, and evidently it was oil on the race track that just made the car slip so bad from out from under me. We got a lucky break and I hauled butt, man, those five laps I ran were five qualifying laps through traffic trying to get back up to the front and pass [Kevin] Harvick to stay on the lead lap. That was our saving bucket right there. That was what we needed to do.
"
And you know whom he held off to win the race? Brad Keselowski, this summer’s driver of the moment.
The last race at Kentucky Speedway devoured much of the field and ramped up the intensity on the Chase bubble. It came down to fuel strategy, a gamble won by Keselowski and lost by several others.
Now at this year's New Hampshire 301, the field heads to its northernmost locale for a short-track experience it hasn’t felt since Dover in May.
By the Numbers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
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New Hampshire 301
Place: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, July 17, 1:30 p.m.
TV Coverage: NBC Sports, 1 p.m.
Distance: 318 miles, 301 laps
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 599
2. Brad Keselowski, 595
3. Kurt Busch, 583
4. Carl Edwards, 566
5. Joey Logano, 533
6. Kyle Busch, 521
7. Martin Truex Jr., 514
8. Chase Elliott, 492
9. Jimmie Johnson, 484
10. Matt Kenseth, 477
11. Denny Hamlin, 472
12. Ryan Newman, 463
13. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 461
14. Austin Dillon, 460
15. Jamie McMurray, 439
16. Trevor Bayne, 429
30. Tony Stewart, 248
Bold denotes race winner and italics denote multiple-race winner.
The Chase Bubble Watch
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Because Tony Stewart is in the top 30 and has a win, he has a spot in the Chase. That bumps all other non-winners inside the top 16 down a slot.
Above the Line
Austin Dillon and Jamie McMurray are the two on the hottest bubble seats right now. They sit 14th and 15th in the standings, respectively, but 15th and 16th on the Grid.
McMurray is the line with 439 points. Dillon is 21 points to the good right now but desperately needs a win, because he’s cutting it close.
The same goes for McMurray. But he has won at the Brickyard, a race coming up in two weeks, so he can shoot for strong efforts at Loudon and Indy to keep his Chase bid alive.
Below the Line
Trevor Bayne is 16th in the standings (17th and off the Grid), only 10 points behind McMurray. Kasey Kahne, 17th in points (18th off the Grid), made big strides at Kentucky and is only 16 points back of McMurray.
Ryan Blaney suffered the biggest fall of them all after Kentucky, falling three spots in the driver standings. He’s 24 points back of McMurray.
An early wreck by any of these drivers followed by a top 10 from another will shake up their order considerably and make for the most interesting storylines to follow over the next eight races.
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Biggest Storyline: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Scratches from the Race
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A major storyline heading into the race was Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s search for speed. After his NASCAR-shattering announcement that he'll skip the New Hampshire 301 with concussion-like symptoms, per NASCAR.com, his search for speed became a moot point.
Earnhardt visited a doctor for what he thought was a strong case of bad allergies or a sinus infection. When the medications failed, he figured it could be something more severe.
He said in the release, "I decided to dig a little deeper. Because of my symptoms and my history with concussions, and after my recent wrecks at Michigan and Daytona, I reached out and met with a neurological specialist. After further evaluation, they felt it was best for me to sit out."
Such a high-profile athlete like Junior making this kind of a statement could ripple out to other sports. NBC NASCAR analyst Jeff Burton said in a release received firsthand:
"Dale Jr. being secure enough in his position to make a decision like this is big for the sport, because I can promise you—it didn’t used to happen like that. This is not how it worked in the past. The understanding of the long-term ramifications of concussions has opened a lot of people’s eyes. For a guy like Dale Jr. to step up and do this is a big deal. It shows kids that are playing soccer and kids that are playing football, or whatever they may be playing, that it’s okay to step up and say, "Hey, I’m hurt.”
"
Burton also said head-injury protocols are well and good, but ultimately it comes down to the driver saying he doesn't feel right.
Burton added, "It takes a lot of bravery for Dale Jr. to step up and say, ‘Hey, I’m not feeling right,’ and then going to get checked. We can talk about baseline tests and the ways that we can evaluate concussions, but unless the patient wants to be evaluated, all of that stuff doesn’t work.”
Earnhardt hasn't had the best of seasons and his Chase hopes are in serious jeopardy, but everyone would agree that a healthy non-Chase-bound Earnhardt is better than a damaged Earnhardt long term.
Biggest Storyline: Is the Sprint Cup Brad Keselowski's to Lose?
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This is a humorous question. We can ask it every week or every month. When Kyle Busch won three races early, we were already sending him to Homestead. When Jimmie Johnson won his two races early, we were saying maybe he’d tie Dale Earnhardt Sr. with seven Cup titles.
All of these things can still happen, but with a season so long (unbearably so, at times), the flame that burns brightest gets the most attention.
And right now that’s Keselowski.
"Presuming that the favorite to win the championship is the driver who seems to drive the fastest car at the Chase's beginning is a dubious hypothesis. Its convoluted progression—three elimination rounds, different kinds of tracks, arbitrary timing—requires speed, efficiency, teamwork and luck.
Keselowski has demonstrated three of the four and excels in the only variable at the moment. He had just enough fuel to win at Kentucky. His timing was only minutely superior to Edwards.
"
You better believe the No. 2 team isn’t counting its Homestead eggs before they hatch, but the way that team has avoided sharp spikes (until now) or dips (never) in performance this season speaks to his capacity to reach Homestead and win the race.
Biggest Storyline: Chase Hopes Dashed After Kentucky?
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Blaney took a hit falling three spots in the standings and 24 points behind McMurray. So too did A.J. Allmendinger.
The No. 47 car, which looked so good at Sonoma before a pit-road tire fumble ruined his chances at a top five (and maybe the win), has fallen hard in the standings.
Dinger is 41 points back of McMurray, and it will take a win to reach the Chase. Fortunately for him, his lone career win came at Watkins Glen, the final road course of the year.
August 7 will be his season. He drove a winning car at Sonoma, and by and large a winning race too. He’ll need that kind of performance in a few weeks.
Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson
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We’re back on the Kyle Larson wagon after a hot week riding shotgun with Newman.
In Larson’s rookie year, he finished third and fourth in the two Loudon races. In 2015, during that hideous sophomore slump season, he drove home 31st and 17th.
Which Larson will we see?
For my money, I think we’ll see that 2014 Larson. Seven of his last races have seen Larson side the top 15, three of those inside the top 10.
And as I’ve said for a few months, it’s these possible wins from drivers outside the top 16 in points that make the Chase picture incredibly fascinating to follow.
Should Larson win, it’ll bump off his Chip Ganassi teammate, as McMurray sits on the bubble’s most tenuous spot.
And the Winner Is...Brad Keselowski
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There are hot hands that may cool off, and there are hot hands you simply have to ride until fate intervenes.
Right now, Keselowski is that hot hand, and there’s no reason to think he won’t win a third race in a row.
A year ago in this race he nearly won it, finishing second to then-hot hand Kyle Busch. Kez led 100 laps in last year’s race and will likely want to get to the winner’s circle in at a track he felt he should have won at in 2015.
"We had a really fast car and led a lot of laps (a race-high 100)," Keselowski said in Spencer’s NASCAR.com recap. "I'm really proud of the team for bringing me two fast cars these past two weekends. ... I'm ready to go home."
Kez will cool down. In fact, it’s best to simmer down a little bit before the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 (!) at Chicagoland, but that won’t be this week.
This season is all about streaks and momentum, and the No. 2 team is loaded on both.
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