Germany vs. Italy: Big Game Will Be Determined by Little Weaknesses

The 2016 UEFA European Championship is about to get serious.

It's time for the quarter-finals at Euro 2016, and in the bottom half of the draw—the one where Europe's "big five" countries ended up after the group stage—there is going to be yet another marquee match. In the round of 16, the clash of the titans involved Italy and Spain. The reward for the Azzurri's 2-0 win? A date with world champions Germany on Saturday.

This is truly a matchup of footballing giants. Both countries have won four FIFA World Cups. The only country to have claimed more is Brazil. They've appeared in a combined 14 World Cup finals, more than the rest of Europe put together. Germany have three European titles, joint-top with Spain. The Italians have won once and were runners-up four years ago at the tournament co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine.

These two teams have a long history with each other and arrived in France on opposite sides of public opinion. Germany were considered one of the favorites. An injury-depleted Italy were tipped to be one of the tournament's biggest disappointments before team play and tactics turned them into a force to be reckoned with.

This will be an even match between two titans of the game, and the winner will come down to which coach can take advantage of the other team's weaknesses—small as they may be.

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Including games played between Italy and West Germany, whose history was assumed by the unified Germany by FIFA when West and East reunited in 1990, the two teams have played each other 33 times. Many of those contests have been classics.

The most well-known, of course, is the 1970 World Cup semi-final, which has become known simply as the Game of the Century. Italy led for almost the entire match before conceding an equaliser at the death, leading to an extra-time period that saw five goals, the last two coming within 60 seconds of each other as Italy won 4-3.

Other notable matches include the 1982 World Cup final, which saw the Italians add the third star to their crest, and the 2006 World Cup semi-final, when the Azzurri scored two in the last two minutes of extra time to upset the hosts in Dortmund en route to their fourth crown.

If you're sensing a pattern here, you're not alone. In fact, you're seeing the statistic that has probably been mentioned more than any other coming into Saturday's game. It's a curious one indeed: Germany have never defeated Italy in a competitive match. All eight of their head-to-head wins over the Azzurri have come in friendly matches.

Italy have won four of eight competitive games, the others ending in draws. All four of those wins came in either the final or the semi-finals of a tournament. The most recent was at Euro 2012, when Mario Balotelli's first-half brace and a fantastic performance by a makeshift defensive line produced a 2-1 upset in the semi-finals.

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#GER vs. #ITA in major tournaments: W0 D4 L4

Italy complex? Don’t bring that cold coffee to Joachim Löw’s kitchen. pic.twitter.com/0twkWbKi2L

— Bleacher Report UK (@br_uk) June 28, 2016"

The previous meeting between the two teams came in March, when Germany thrashed Italy 4-1 in Munich for their first win over the Azzurri in any game since 1995. But that match shouldn't be considered a reference point. Italy were missing two-thirds of their elite back line in that friendly, and manager Antonio Conte was experimenting with a 3-4-3 shape he abandoned to go back to the 3-5-2 he has deployed so effectively so far at the Euros.

The Italians have advanced to this stage on the strength of their team play. With the exception of goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon and the back line of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, they don't boast any players who would be considered truly world class.

But what they lack in individual quality, they make up for in unity and tactics. Conte has outcoached two tournament favorites in Belgium's Marc Wilmots and Spain's Vicente del Bosque, and the team has executed his plans to perfection.

In spite of their reputation for catenaccio, Italy have done anything but park the bus. They attacked both Belgium and Spain for long stretches, creating excellent chances.

Indeed, were it not for incredible efforts by Thibaut Courtois and David De Gea, they would have beaten both Belgium and Spain by more than the 2-0 scorelines in the record books.

VI-Images/Getty Images

But the limitations of their roster can hurt them. There is a serious lack of individual creativity in this squad, especially in midfield. That deficiency will be magnified if Daniele De Rossi misses the game. The midfielder suffered a blunt-force injury to his leg against Spain, and Italy's team doctor, Enrico Castellacci, admitted to reporters on Wednesday that the AS Roma man was fighting a losing battle to be fit for Saturday's tie.

De Rossi is a key cog in Conte's system, and with Thiago Motta suspended, there isn't a natural replacement for him. This is where Germany need to focus. If they can keep Italy's midfield under wraps, they could cut off the service to forwards Graziano Pelle and Eder while heaping pressure on their defence in an attempt to break them.

And if anyone in this tournament can break the Italians down, it's Die Mannschaft. The Germans have a pair of good goalscorers in Mario Gomez and Thomas Muller, good box-to-box players in Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira and, in Mesut Ozil and Julian Draxler, midfield creativity the Italians sorely lack.

They also have quite the back line themselves. Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng are an excellent centre-back pairing, and with Manuel Neuer behind them, they haven't given up a goal yet this tournament. But they're less settled on the flanks.

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#GER have yet to concede a goal at #Euro2016—change of position for Manuel Neuer? (🎥: @DFB_Team_EN) pic.twitter.com/1KGRHRJHyR

— Bleacher Report UK (@br_uk) June 29, 2016"

Jonas Hector has made the left-back position his in the last two years, but since the international retirement of Philipp Lahm in 2014, the right-back spot has been less settled. Benedikt Howedes, who is more of a centre back, has played there twice in this tournament. As has Bayern Munich's Joshua Kimmich. The latter has taken the spot in the last two matches and figures to keep it for this one—and that's where Conte could focus his attacks.

For Kimmich, playing out of position has been the norm this season. A natural midfielder, he was drafted into the centre of defence at Bayern when Pep Guardiola experienced a selection crisis in the back.

He was inconsistent at best. He had a few good matches, but he was directly responsible for allowing Juventus back into the first leg of their UEFA Champions League round-of-16 tie and was shaky in the second leg as well.

PATRIK STOLLARZ/Getty Images

Against Slovakia on Sunday, he played well—according to WhoScored.com, he made five tackles—but his positioning in his new role was still rough, and he allowed a few dangerous runs down his side.

Expect Conte to target the 21-year-old, both with his left wing-back and by pushing Emanuele Giaccherini to the sideline as he did against Belgium, when he used both the Sunderland man and Marco Parolo to attack the Red Devils' makeshift full-backs. Kimmich may also end up the target of some long balls over the top from Bonucci, whose ball-playing ability can initiate attacks while completely bypassing the midfield.

Saturday's quarter-final could be one of the best matches of the tournament. Germany are a juggernaut. They are world champions and have reached at least the semi-finals of every major tournament they've been in since 2006.

But Joachim Low's men haven't yet looked like they're firing on all cylinders. They only scored three times against fairly light opposition in the group stage, and on Sunday, Slovakia held possession for much of the second half and had a few sights at goal. And Die Mannschaft know they've yet to play a team that will test them like the Italians.

Muller told La Gazzetta dello Sport on Thursday (h/t Football Italia) that Germany, while confident, were fully aware Italy could send them home. Gomez told reporters at a press conference that "Italy is not Slovakia. ... It will be an incredibly tough and exciting game."

Italy are similarly confident but just as conscious of the team they're dealing with. Reserve forward Ciro Immobile acknowledged to a press conference that Germany are "even stronger" than the Spain side they eliminated.

Given the way the draw has shaken out, this game will almost certainly be the biggest contest of European blue bloods Euro 2016 will offer.  

Italy and Germany are totally different in ways that almost cancel each other out.  This game is a true toss-up. It will hinge on how well Conte and Low attack each other's weaknesses—and on which team makes that one crucial mistake that will turn the game.

Both teams are fully capable of winning—and whoever is the victor, football itself will likely be the truest winner.