2016 NBA Free Agency: Updated Rankings for Top 5 Available at Each Position
Positional designations are getting hazier these days, but organizing the top 2016 NBA free agents into five widely understood categories may still be the best way to illustrate the depth (or lack thereof) of this summer's class.
If you're in the market for a big man, congratulations: There are plenty of useful centers out there. If it's a starting point guard you're after, the news is much worse. Beyond Mike Conley, it's slim pickings.
Rankings are based on present talent with an eye on age. Free agents entering their primes get a bit of a boost over those who might be on the latter end of their career trajectories.
It would be nice to consider potential contracts (cheaper is better!), but we can't be sure what these guys will command or how long they'll sign for. Thus, it's best to leave the cost-effectiveness portion of the evaluation out of this for now.
Every team diving into free agency has its own big board. Here's ours.
Point Guard
| 1. Mike Conley | 28 | Unrestricted |
| 2. Jeremy Lin | 27 | Unrestricted |
| 3. Rajon Rondo | 30 | Unrestricted |
| 4. Deron Williams | 32 | Unrestricted |
| 5. Brandon Jennings | 26 | Unrestricted |
Mike Conley is in a class of his own.
A rugged defender despite being somewhat undersized, Conley is also a capable shooter, a deft finisher in that tricky range just outside the restricted area, a smart passer and a battle-tested leader. At just 28, he has at least another couple of years as an All-Star-caliber point guard, even if he has yet to make his first actual All-Star Game.
The Memphis Grizzlies are likely to max out their all-time franchise leader in games played on a five-year deal, though that contract could look ugly when Conley is 32 and still raking in the biggest chunks of that prospective $153 million agreement.
Still, he's easily the best option at the point.
Despite a spotty track record as a starter, Jeremy Lin comes in second here. He played well as a backup with the Charlotte Hornets and is still just 27. Though Rajon Rondo's prime was better than any level Lin is likely to hit going forward, it's silly to expect last year's assists leader to rediscover his own top form.
There's also this to consider when discussing Rondo, per Tom Ziller of SB Nation: "There are few better passers in the NBA. There are about 400 better shooters and 250 better defenders, though."
No wonder the Sacramento Kings performed better overall (particularly on defense) when Rondo sat last year, per NBA.com.
Deron Williams is a 32-year-old perennial injury risk, though his strength allows him to guard both backcourt positions, and he's still capable of takeover flashes. Brandon Jennings faces the tough task of proving he can contribute big minutes to a winner—an undertaking made more difficult by the torn Achilles he suffered two seasons ago.
Shooting Guard
| 1. Dwyane Wade | 34 | Unrestricted |
| 2. DeMar DeRozan | 26 | Unrestricted |
| 3. Bradley Beal | 23 | Restricted |
| 4. Evan Fournier | 23 | Restricted |
| 5. Eric Gordon | 27 | Unrestricted |
If all you had to go on were their performances in last year's playoffs, you'd have enough information to slot wily vet Dwyane Wade ahead of 26-year-old DeMar DeRozan. Wade carried the Miami Heat with big shots and a postseason average of 21.4 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting. He even conjured a three-point stroke out of thin air, hitting 52.2 percent of his 23 attempts from deep.
It's seemingly a foregone conclusion that Wade will stay in Miami, though there are conflicting reports, per ESPN's Brian Windhorst.
DeRozan had his lunch money ripped off by Paul George in the first round and shot just 39.4 percent from the field for the duration of the playoffs. His Toronto Raptors beat Wade's Heat, though, so at least that's something.
Even at 34, Wade looks like someone who could be the focal point of a good offense. He also managed to play 74 games last year. DeRozan, though younger, is more of a secondary option.
If Bradley Beal's injury history weren't so alarmingly long for a 23-year-old player, he might rank first on this list. However, Beal played 55 games a year ago and 63 the year before because of stress reactions in his lower legs, which has to give potential suitors pause.
Beal is a proven three-point threat and has gradually improved his effectiveness as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Those offensive skills in a still-developing package give him the most upside of anyone at this position, but there's real risk in handing a huge long-term deal to someone who hasn't consistently stayed on the floor for most of his career.
Evan Fournier is an exciting combo guard who graded out nicely in a number of offensive categories. Per SportVU data on NBA.com (via Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal), Fournier "finished in the 75.1 percentile on spot-up plays, the 57.6 percentile as a pick-and-roll handler, the 84.2 percentile in isolation and the 90th in transition."
As a restricted free agent, Fournier could find himself in a bidding war, with the Orlando Magic potentially matching a max offer to keep him, per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. If not for his defensive shortcomings, the 23-year-old Frenchman might actually be worth that kind of financial outlay.
Eric Gordon can stripe it from three (38.4 percent last year, 44.8 percent in 2014-15) and gets to the free-throw line at a high rate for someone who shoots as many jumpers as he does. At 27, that's the profile of a guard most teams would love to have. However, Gordon has missed at least 18 games in each of his five seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans, including 37 last season.
Small Forward
| 1. LeBron James | 31 | Unrestricted |
| 2. Kevin Durant | 27 | Unrestricted |
| 3. Nicolas Batum | 27 | Unrestricted |
| 4. Chandler Parsons | 27 | Unrestricted |
| 5. Luol Deng | 31 | Unrestricted |
LeBron James has four MVP awards, three championship rings, three Finals MVPs and should be indisputably considered the greatest talent of his generation. So, yeah...he's the top option here.
But he's not going anywhere, because he's essentially a deity in the Midwest now, and also because he told ESPN's Dave McMenamin as much: "I love it here in Cleveland. I have no intentions of leaving. There are some technicalities to take care of I'll leave up to my agent. That's right from the horse's mouth."
Kevin Durant isn't quite off the market to the extent James is, but his list of possible destinations is short. According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chris Broussard, KD will meet with just six teams: the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers and his incumbent Oklahoma City Thunder.
Factoring in age (Durant is 27; James is 31), you could make the case that he deserves to be ahead of LeBron. But nothing about LBJ's latest Finals appearance suggested his decline was on the horizon.
Nicolas Batum ranks third but is perhaps the best realistic wing pursuit on the market, though the Charlotte Hornets appear to be firmly in the lead, per Batum's agent. He's not a superstar (or even an All-Star) but is a long, versatile defender who clogs passing lanes, hits open shots, moves the ball well and still has enough athleticism to be valuable in transition. The 27-year-old swingman could fit virtually any team.
Chandler Parsons' knee troubles are worrisome, but he's only 27 and has the size to eventually play more minutes at power forward, where his shooting and ability to attack closeouts will be more valuable. And Luol Deng has already proved his worth as an undersized 4.
Shout out to Harrison Barnes, who was probably going to appear on this list until his disastrous Finals.
Power Forward
| 1. Dirk Nowitzki | 38 | Unrestricted |
| 2. Marvin Williams | 30 | Unrestricted |
| 3. Jared Dudley | 30 | Unrestricted |
| 4. Ryan Anderson | 28 | Unrestricted |
| 5. Jared Sullinger | 24 | Restricted |
Perhaps no position better illustrates the NBA's changing strategic norms than power forward.
Dirk Nowitzki is the top option because of his continued shooting prowess, and everyone else on the list is either an established floor-stretcher or someone (in the case of Jared Sullinger) who could someday become one. You may have also noticed that two of the top five are converted small forwards.
In fairness, we could have included Deng or even Barnes in this group, since they figure to be most useful as 4s going forward. But Marvin Williams and Jared Dudley are both former wings who've moved up a position and succeeded in today's space-obsessed NBA. Since both can guard power forwards in a pinch (largely because there are so few back-you-down players left at that position), there's no reason to consider them wings anymore...even if they still mostly play on the perimeter.
Williams and Dudley slot ahead of Ryan Anderson—the best shooter at the position not named Dirk—because of their defensive versatility. Anderson is a sieve on that end and has dealt with injuries as well. Nevertheless, he outranks Sullinger because of his proven ability to punish defenses from beyond the arc.
Sullinger rebounds like the power forwards of old. He averaged 8.3 boards per game this past season to comfortably lead the five players here, and his best attribute remains his size and strength underneath. He has also averaged nearly two three-point attempts per game in his four-year career, so it's not hard to imagine him continuing to develop his stroke.
Center
| 1. Andre Drummond | 22 | Restricted |
| 2. Al Horford | 30 | Unrestricted |
| 3. Dwight Howard | 30 | Unrestricted |
| 4. Hassan Whiteside | 27 | Unrestricted |
| 5. Joakim Noah | 31 | Unrestricted |
Forget the free throws and focus instead on Andre Drummond's age (22), size (enormous) and defensive potential (legitimate interior anchor). That's what the Detroit Pistons will do when they inevitably offer him a five-year max deal.
Drummond may not be a better player than Al Horford right now, but he should be in a year or two. And with Horford hitting the post-30 portion of his career, the advantage will certainly belong to Drummond soon.
Horford is far more reliable than Dwight Howard, who is also on the wrong side of 30 and has endured back, shoulder and knee injuries during recent seasons. If Howard is rejuvenated by a change in scenery (assuming he leaves the Houston Rockets), he could provide game-changing defense and contribute as an effective lob threat offensively. In an absolute best-case scenario, he might actually outproduce both Drummond and Horford next season.
More likely, he'll continue his gradual decline.
The next one may be controversial, but Hassan Whiteside actually ranks behind Howard. The main reason? Miami slightly defended better without its shot-blocking center on the floor last year.
That's not to say Whiteside is a poor defender; he blocks shots and rebounds extremely well. But there's more to defense than that, and Whiteside often struggles to stay engaged on that end. He gets out of position chasing blocks, doesn't always rotate as quickly as he should and can be suckered by decoy actions.
Underdiscussed in all of this is Whiteside's offensive value.
As a roller, he demands a defense's full attention, and few things are better for good spacing than a big man who sucks in the help when he dives to the bucket. Among players who rolled at least 75 times last year, only DeAndre Jordan averaged more than Whiteside's 1.34 points per possession. At 27 and still notorious for maturity issues, Whiteside remains a bit of a gamble.
So does Joakim Noah, whose production tumbled last season. A healthier Noah could help a good team with his passing, communication and professionalism, but it's hard to be confident in a full return to form after he averaged just 4.3 points per game on 38.3 percent shooting last season prior to suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-January.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com/Stats unless otherwise noted.
