Belgium Appear to Be Picking Up Momentum, but Questions Remain Unanswered

After the shock of the opening defeat to Italy, a sense of calm has returned to Belgium. They’ve won their last three games, scoring eight without reply, and the discontent in the squad—the vague threat of mutiny—seems to have receded. There is nothing, after all, quite so good for team spirit as winning.

As they approach Friday’s semi-final against Wales, though, certain doubts remain. 

It can never be a bad thing to be the leading scorers in the tournament, but context is required. 

Three of their eight goals came against a Republic of Ireland side producing its worst performance of the tournament, arguably its worst under Martin O’Neill—scratchy, disengaged and fearful.

A 1-0 win over Sweden is no great success; this was a stubborn side that was so limited going forward it didn’t manage its first shot on target until the fifth minute of the third game.

And while the demolition of Hungary was ostensibly impressive, it was against a team that had lost Laszlo Kleinheisler in the warm-up; this was not only a blow in itself, it disrupted the meticulous planning that had characterised Bernd Storck’s side.

But winning is good. Perhaps Belgium head coach Marc Wilmots has suddenly got the balance right and found a way of fitting his stars together.

While some of the criticism has begun to abate, none of those performances were sufficient in themselves to overturn the suspicion that first emerged at the 2014 World Cup that, under Wilmots, this side is rather less than the sum of its parts.

Eden Hazard, who has so regularly disappointed for Belgium, at least found form against Hungary, scoring a dazzling goal and laying on an assist for Michy Batshuayi. There remain questions though as to whether he and Kevin De Bruyne, who has probably been Belgium’s best creative player in the group stage, can play together.

The tendency is for one or other to take the lead, which perhaps isn’t the worst position to be in, but Belgium awaits the moment when they explode together.

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Most take-ons completed so far at #EURO2016:

Eden Hazard (22) #BEL
Gareth Bale (15) #WAL
Julian Draxler (12) #GER pic.twitter.com/0TgZ7Z1Agq

— Squawka Football (@Squawka) June 28, 2016"

Still, there were signs of a fluency against Hungary, at least in the latter stages as their opponents tired, and that perhaps is the most encouraging aspect for Wilmots.

Perhaps finally there is a balance in the team—and balance for a national-team manager is the hardest thing to achieve. But questions remain.

For all the criticism Wilmots has received, one of the biggest issues is something he can do nothing about: Belgium lack high-class full-backs.

Before the injuries to Vincent Kompany and Nicolas Lombaerts, Belgium would have lined up with Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld, the Premier League’s best central-defensive partnership last season, at full-back. As it is, Alderweireld has moved into the middle with Vertonghen at left-back and Thomas Meunier on the right.

PASCAL GUYOT/Getty Images

Meunier is in the midst of completing his move from Club Brugge to Paris Saint-Germain this week, which has been another concern for this Belgium side. Batshuayi has been given time off for his Chelsea medical, while Radja Nainggolan is asked almost every day about his future.

The dearth of full-backs, inevitably, has prompted a lack of fluency. The capacity to attack down the flank from deep is a key part of modern football. They’re needed to break up rigid lines, to ensure that defence and midfield are integrated, to offer overlaps when wide forwards, such as Hazard, cut infield.

However, that is not Vertonghen’s game. In four games, he has completed just two crosses. In three matches, Meunier has completed just one. That, in theory, gives Belgium a solid base, but it heightens the danger of their team becoming broken between the front half and the back half, which was precisely the flaw upon which Italy seized so ruthlessly.

That’s why the position at the back of midfield becomes so vital. If the full-backs cannot push on, then the holding midfielders have a crucial role in linking the two halves of the team.

The pairing of Nainggolan and Axel Witsel, unconvincing against Italy, has improved as the tournament has gone on—following a brief experiment with Mousa Dembele alongside Witsel in the Ireland game.

A more hands-on manager—somebody like Antonio Conte—would work incessantly on that, practising drills to ensure the back four was always protected. Wilmots’ way, though, is to leave the players to improvise.

There is a theory that because so many of Belgium’s players have developed under meticulous controlling coaches such as Diego Simeone, Andre Villas-Boas, Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho they are unused to Wilmots’ more laissez-faire approach.

Only De Bruyne is really used to improvising, which is why he has tended to be Belgium’s most effective player under Wilmots.

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No player has created more chances at #EURO2016 than Kevin De Bruyne (22).

Creative masterclass. pic.twitter.com/J64Q65HR6e

— Squawka Football (@Squawka) June 28, 2016"

Hazard, used to shuttling up and down the flank at Chelsea, protecting his full-back and covering for overlaps, is given almost no defensive responsibility. That may be something he relishes, but it’s almost as though he struggled to come to terms with the freedom until the Hungary game.

The other defensive issue facing Belgium against Wales is the suspension of Thomas Vermaelen, meaning they are without three front-line central defenders. Jason Denayer, who spent last season on loan at Galatasaray from Manchester City, looks likely to step in.

Perhaps Wilmots’ approach relaxes the players but the problem is that when it goes wrong, it leaves him very open to criticism.

Before the Italy game, he played a practice game between the first XI and the other players, who were arranged in a 3-5-2 to mimic Italy’s formation. The first team lost 4-0. The next day, they played another 11 vs. 11 practice. This time the reserves were given no tactical instruction.

Even allowing for the fact that it’s not especially uncommon for reserve sides to beat the putative first team in practice games, that seems mystifying, as though Wilmots decided the confidence of his players was of more value than working on tactical deficiencies.

He was heavily criticised in the Belgian press, most notably by former Sheffield Wednesday striker Marc Degryse in Het Laatste Nieuws.

Brushing aside lesser teams is all very well—and a part of the game that has eluded certain others at this tournament—but winning a tournament means beating the best.

Memories of the defeat to Italy linger. Wales too favour a back three and play counter-attacking football. Belgium’s players individually are better, but the Welsh have a clear and effective tactical structure particularly against teams who come at them.

This quarter-final will be a test of how far Belgium have progressed over the tournament but even if they get through it, it doesn’t necessarily mean the problems of the opening game have been solved.

The draw has been relatively kind to Belgium, and the signs of the past 10 days are encouraging, but there are still major questions to answer about the coherence of this side and Wilmots’ capacity to answer them. Wales will only be the start of that.

All information obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.