Why €25 Million Is a Realistic Figure for Bayern Munich to Sell Mario Gotze

As the summer transfer window winds on, Mario Gotze's career at Bayern Munich remains unsettled.

The player revealed to Bild (h/t Coral Barry of Sky Sports) in May that he intends to stay at the Allianz Arena, stating: "I look forward to the new season in Munich and will do everything possible to be in top shape for my first training session under Carlo Ancelotti."

Yet exactly how genuine that commitment is remains highly debatable. The Germany international played just 1,219 minutes in all competitions last season, per Transfermarkt, and hardly featured in any of Bayern's most important matches especially towards the end of the 2015-16 campaign. He's 24 years old, and things just haven't worked out for him in three seasons at Bayern. And so, reporters have dug to find out exactly what has been going on behind the scenes.

Prior to Gotze's pledge, Christof Kneer and Birgit Schonau of Suddeutsche Zeitung (in German) reported Ancelotti had advised Gotze to find a new club to play for, given that the incoming trainer had no plans to give him an increased role next season.

It appears Gotze's pledge was simply a means of turning down Liverpool, with SportBild (h/t Jonathan Green of the Daily Star) later reporting the player considered a reunion with Jurgen Klopp to be a "step backward" in his career. The same report claimed Arsenal would be a possibility for the player, and Suddeutsche Zeitung (via the Daily Star's Rhys Turrell) reported in May that Gotze would be available for £16 million (then approximately €20 million).

Yet well-informed Robert Peters of Rheinische Post (in German) reported two days later that Liverpool were willing to pay €25 million to sign Gotze. And even though the move appears to have ultimately collapsed in the weeks since (Kicker, h/t ESPN FC's Stephan Uersfeld, reported Gotze's decision to fire his agent, Sports Total, was due to the failed transfer to the Anfield side), the quoted €25 million is a reasonable figure for Bayern to hold out for.

In previous years, a Bundesliga player with one year left on his contract would typically sell at a heavy discount. Arturo Vidal fetched just €12.5 million, per Transfermarkt, from Juventus when Leverkusen sold him in 2011, and in that same summer, player-of-the-season Nuri Sahin cost Real Madrid just €10 million. But that was five years ago; the market has changed dramatically since.

Bayern themselves paid €38 million for Mats Hummels earlier this summer, with the Germany international having had just one year left on his contract at Borussia Dortmund. And Manchester United offered the same amount, per well-informed transfer guru Gianluca Di Marzio, for Henrikh Mkhitaryan last week, with the player's agent, Mino Raiola (via Alex Bywater of the MailOnline), insisting he wants to end his working agreement with the Ruhr side 12 months ahead of schedule.

Gotze could not fetch a fee pushing close to €40 million, and even three-quarters of that figure would be a stretch. Hummels and Mkhitaryan were excellent last season: It was the best year of the Armenian's career to date, and the German was at least near his best while also being a more mature, dependable player with the leadership qualities that had led to his being given the captain's armband. They are specific players in their prime, who can be considered much less risky than the average transfer.

Mkhitaryan and Hummels would be considered less risky than Gotze, whose career could go in one of two directions at this point. True, he has elite, world-class talent. The potential is there. But he's 24 years of age now and has done next to nothing in the last three years considering the talent he had shown as a Dortmund player. He's occasionally had spells of around a month in which he looked to be on the right track, but they invariably fizzled out.

Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Many will point out Pep Guardiola having given Gotze few chances, especially later in the coach's tenure at Bayern. And the player himself can feel hard done by. Yet at this moment, Guardiola's stock is high, whereas Gotze's is low. The fact the coach decided to bench the player speaks more to Gotze's deficiency than of unfair treatment on Guardiola's part. That's the way potential buyers will see it, at least.

Another factor that will drive down Gotze's fee is his wage, which is €12 million annually, per TZ (in German). A high wage means fewer clubs will be willing to offer terms equal to or better than those of his current deal. And in rejecting Liverpool, Gotze has shown he is willing to be patient until his demands are met; in the worst-case scenario, he can just stay at Bayern and earn €12 million regardless of whether—and how well—he plays. He'll prefer to play, but he is either being patient or bluffing.

Yet Liverpool's €25 million offer is entirely reasonable for a player who as a teenager looked to be a superstar-in-the-making. His next club could sign him through the theoretical peak of his career, as a six-year contract would see him stay until the age of 30. That time frame should be long enough for Gotze to develop into the player he was meant to be or at least something closer than he is now.

But there is quite a bit of risk in signing a player who, despite his talent, is in the nadir of his career. With all things considered, €25 million is all Bayern can expect and would be an acceptable loss as they look to put the past behind and look to the future.

@Mr_Bundesliga