An Argument for Why Arsenal Must Not Sell Theo Walcott

Towards the end of last season, it looked as if Theo Walcott’s days with Arsenal might well be numbered. The former Southampton man did not start a single league game after the 3-2 defeat to Manchester United on February 28. He was woefully out of form and seemingly out of favour with manager Arsene Wenger.

However, circumstances can change quickly in football, and there’s now a strong case for retaining the speedy forward.

It’s easy to see why some felt it might be time for Walcott to change clubs. After a decade in north London, he appears to have gone somewhat stale at Arsenal. Last season started promisingly: He had a lucrative new contract and an exciting new role as a centre-forward. Initially, his performances promised much—he was outstanding in big wins over Leicester City and Manchester United.

However, he began to fade as winter encroached. His run as a central striker was eventually written off as a failed experiment. Asked to assess how Walcott was developing through the middle, a disappointed Wenger told ESPN’s Mattias Karen:

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Not as well as you could have expected. He had good periods in the season. I think recently he has gone through a much more difficult period. But he will come back.

[...]

The problem with Theo is he wants to play on the right and through the middle. You have to fix yourself somewhere. When he does go through the middle he thinks maybe it's better for me on the right.

"

There has been genuine uncertainty over where Walcott’s future lies—and not just in terms of his position. Back in May, Sami Mokbel of the Daily Mail linked West Ham with a £25 million bid for his services. He wrote:

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Walcott's future will be up for discussion this summer following a frustrating season that could result in the speedster missing out on England's Euro 2016 squad, which is named on Thursday.

The 27-year-old has struggled for regular football this season and [West Ham manager Slaven] Bilic is prepared to offer the former Southampton man a prominent role in his plans next season in order to secure his services.

Sources insist the Hammers are yet to make a formal offer for the player, but Arsenal are bracing themselves for a bid.

"

A sum like that would be tempting for Arsenal. It’s an enormous amount for a player who is not a guaranteed starter, so it’s easy to see why the Gunners might consider a sale.

However, the tide may be turning. Talk about a potential transfer has since quietened down substantially. Perhaps Wenger and Arsenal have decided they would be better served by keeping Walcott on their books.

Ian Walton/Getty Images

The first argument is that the Gunners might benefit from some stability. Wenger is an advocate of avoiding too much turnover in his squad whenever possible. Last summer, he made just one major signing—a goalkeeper: Petr Cech. Although he concedes he will need to do more business this summer, he’s loath to add more than a few new faces. In an interview with DeSports (h/t ESPN), Wenger said:

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We've already bought one player—[Granit] Xhaka—from Monchengladbach. So we've bought one midfielder and we're still on the market to buy one or two more players. But it is not easy.

It is not just buying. We also have to keep a good balance. If you buy too many players you destabilise your team. So three is the maximum.

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With Xhaka already secured, that means Wenger’s preference would be to bring in just two more players. Selling Walcott would create a need for a replacement and potentially threaten the delicate balance of his squad.

That balance has already been damaged by the injury to Danny Welbeck. When he returned in February from a 10-month lay-off, Welbeck’s impact was immediate.

He scored the winning goal in a Valentine’s Day victory over Leicester that briefly breathed life into Arsenal’s ailing title challenge. He quickly leapfrogged Walcott in Wenger’s pecking order and seemed to be shaping up as a potential first-choice forward at the Emirates Stadium. With Olivier Giroud and Walcott both enduring difficult 2016’s, Welbeck was the most convincing striker on Arsenal’s books.

Then disaster struck. Welbeck suffered another cartilage injury to his knee, ruling him out for at least another nine months. The news was a hammer blow to the player and Arsenal’s plans.

Losing Welbeck makes selling Walcott more problematic. Both players offer options through the middle and out wide. Both have the electric pace required to offer a threat on the counter-attack. If Welbeck was fit, Walcott would not be missed quite so much. Having lost the former Manchester United man for the majority of next season, it might be unwise to allow another speedy striker to depart.

Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Another factor in Wenger’s decision might be the failure to land Jamie Vardy. Arsenal had trigged Vardy’s release clause prior to Euro 2016, but the Leicester man has subsequently chosen to stay at the King Power Stadium.

Former Arsenal and Leicester forward Alan Smith told Sky Sports he believed Arsenal were attracted by Vardy’s pace and movement off the ball:

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They do need somebody else and in going for someone like Vardy, Arsene Wenger was obviously after a different type of player to Giroud, which makes sense. Someone quicker, who looks to get behind rather than coming towards the ball, so will be interesting to see who if anyone he does go for because as we know the good strikers out there, all the top clubs are after them.

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Having missed out on Vardy, Walcott may become all the more important to Wenger. It’s difficult to find a forward with Vardy’s explosive pace, but Walcott could match him stride for stride.

In many respects, Vardy is the kind of striker Wenger hoped Walcott might become. Although he hasn’t yet fulfilled that potential, the raw attributes are there. Arsenal will doubtless be linked with a number of alternative strikers now, but they may not be of the same fleet-footed ilk. As Smith suggests, such players are a scarcity. 

A matter of weeks ago, it looked as if Walcott’s Arsenal career was destined to come to a close this summer. However, Welbeck’s injury and Vardy’s U-turn may give him yet another chance to prove himself. It will surely be the last—the patience of the fans and the manager is thinner than ever.

If Walcott stays at the Emirates Stadium, he must produce significantly better displays to prevent the reprieve being merely temporary.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and is following the club from a London base throughout 2015/16. Follow him on Twitter here.