Guards are perhaps the most crucial position for fantasy basketball, regardless of which type of league you prefer (rotisserie, point system, keeper, etc.)
Great guards excel in five (Points, Assists, Threes, Steals, FT%) of the eight typical fantasy stat categories (points, assists, three-pointers, steals and free-throw percentage).
Key:
D: Declining Player. Either due to age or lack of minutes, this player should see a significant reduction in his numbers.
B: Breakout Candidate. This player is poised for a breakout season and an increasing stat line.
R: Risk. Either due to injuries, trade demands or uncertainty of a new role, this player should be drafted with extreme caution.
S: Sleeper. This player could be undervalued and may be available several rounds later than previously anticipated. He, too, could have a very nice stat line due to increased minutes and/or a new situation.
O: Overrated. This player may have a nice season, but other people in your league may overvalue him due to his recent playoff performance or simply hype.
1. Dwayne Wade
Wade had a career year last season, reaching career highs in almost every statistical category: 30.2 PPG, 49.1 FG%, 88 three-pointers made (3PTM), 7.5 APG and 173 steals.
There is no reason to believe Wade will not continue these phenomenal numbers going into next season. The Heat still don’t have an adept starting-caliber point guard, meaning the ball will be constantly going through Wade’s hands.
2. Chris Paul
Chris Paul has been dubbed the top point guard in the game of basketball.
The same can be said for his fantasy status.
Paul enjoyed a stellar season in which he averaged 22.8 PPG on 50.3 percent shooting from the field and 86.8 percent from the line.
He can win you two categories: steals and assists. He dished out 11 dimes per game last season and accumulated 216 steals.
3. Kobe Bryant (O, D)
There’s not much that can go wrong with the reigning MVP.
Kobe did enjoy a nice stat line last season: 26.8 PPG, 85.6 FT%, 118 3PTM. But there should be some slight caution here by fantasy owners.
Kobe has suffered a steady dip in his scoring and rebounding numbers. This is likely due to the addition of Pau Gasol and less minutes played, but expect the same type of decline considering the team added another major contributor in Ron Artest.
4. Deron Williams
Williams did miss some time last season, but don’t let the 68 games fool you.
Deron is usually healthy, having played at least 80 games in the three previous seasons prior to last.
When healthy, Williams averaged 19.4 PPG and 10.7 APG. Those two categories have been increasing steadily ever since the Illinois product entered the league in 2005.
Expect that trend to continue in 2009-2010.
5. Derrick Rose (B, O)
Rose enjoyed a nice coming out party, literally and statistically.
He averaged 16.8 PPG and 6.3 APG while shooting a modest 47.5 percent from the field and 79 percent from the line.
Derrick’s hype grew large with a terrific opening-round playoff series against Boston. He averaged nearly 20 points and more than six rebounds and assists per game.
Rose has already been handed the keys to the Bulls franchise and his play on the court will further indicate that next season.
Rose may be able to keep up numbers that mirror his playoff stat line, but do not get sucked into the hype that says he will overtake Chris Paul as the league’s top point guard.
6. Brandon Roy
Roy enjoyed another exceptional season in which he averaged a career-high 22.6 PPG and made 83 three-pointers.
Finding a high-percentage shooting guard is not easy in this league.
Roy may be the exception.
He shot a solid 48 percent from the field and 82 percent from the line. With Andre Miller alongside him, Roy may experience a decrease from his 5.1 APG.
But look for him to increase his shooting percentages and at least stay steady with his scoring output.
7. Andre Iguodala (B)
The absence of Andre Miller will undoubtedly hurt the Sixers organization, but will help Iguodala’s offensive production across the board.
The Philadelphia guard is what we call in fantasy a stat-sheet filler.
He gives you scoring (18.8 PPG), modest shooting percentages (47 FG%), rebounds (5.7 RPG), assists (5.3 APG) and steals (131).
Without Miller in Philly, Andre should see a steady climb in scoring, three-pointers and assists.
He may, however, shoot worse from the field and increase his turnovers without a legitimate point guard by his side.
8. Devin Harris (B)
One can say Harris already experienced a breakout season last year in which he made the All-Star team and had career-highs with 21.3 PPG, 6.9 APG and 114 steals.
Still, with Vince Carter out of the swamplands, Harris should see a large increase in his offensive production and is now considered the Nets’ consummate franchise player.
But do not get too giddy on Harris just yet. He shot a paltry 43.8 percent from the field, a number that will likely dip further considering the abundance of shots he will likely take next season.
9. Tony Parker (O)
The French sensation topped career averages last season in points (22 PPG) and assists (6.9 APG). Parker also shot over 50 percent from the field and 78 percent from the line.
With more of the offense going through Parker, it is safe to assume another steady statistical incline is in order.
Many fantasy owners may see Parker’s name and immediately think All-Star, Finals MVP and Eva Longoria. But he still remains a Top 10 fantasy guard, as well.
10. Steve Nash (D)
Steve Nash will turn 35 next season. I repeat: 35.
The two-time MVP did average 9.7 APG, shot over 50 percent from the field and 93 percent from the line.
Considering his age and already-steady signs of declining, however, expect Nash’s offensive production to take another dip next season.
11. Joe Johnson (D)
Typically, a 27-year-old franchise player entering his prime should mean he doesn’t go past the second round, right?
This used to be the case for Johnson, but perhaps not entering next season.
Johnson saw his steady statistical climb plateau last year. And with the addition of Jamaal Crawford, Atlanta seems set on reducing the 3,123 minutes Johnson played last season.
With reduced minutes and a sixth-man capable of taking away some of the scoring load, expect Johnson’s numbers to decrease ever so slightly.
12. Gilbert Arenas (R, S)
Gilbert has not played a full season since the 2006-2007 campaign. He has been hobbled by injuries and likely has lost some of his athletic abilities.
This is the same Arenas, though, that two seasons ago averaged over 28 PPG, 6 APG and connected on over 200 threes.
Many may have forgotten precisely how lethal Arenas was. If "Agent Zero" is available in the third or fourth round he may be worth taking a flier on.
The coaching staff and his PR crew are raving about how great he looks. If he is even 75 percent of what he used to be, he’s a nice option on your fantasy squad.
13. Monta Ellis (B, S)
Monta only appeared in 25 games last season, mainly due to a suspension.
Over the least two seasons Ellis scored around 20 PPG, shot around 50 percent from the field, 80 percent from the line and had 1.5 steals per game.
The Warriors will shift their focus to Ellis even more next season.
Expect more shot opportunities and an increase from his 12 3PTM two seasons ago. Ellis should hover around 23 PPG, still shoot over 50% from the field all while increasing his assist totals in the process.
An up-tempo Nellie offense doesn’t hurt either.
14. Kevin Martin (R)
The other K-Mart has only played in a combined 112 games over the past two seasons.
The Kings front office did indicate that his previous injury concerns were more or less flukes. But one should still proceed with caution.
Kevin has increased his scoring average consistently every season since he entered the league and is amongst the top three-point marksmen.
He also is amongst the top free-throw shooters in the league, so that 87 percent will help your overall percentages.
15. Rajon Rondo (O, B)
Rondo’s market value nationwide drastically increased after the former Kentucky standout averaged a triple-double in a seven-game first round series against Chicago last season.
Don’t allow the hype to misconstrue.
Rondo did reach highs last season in assists (8.2 per), steals (149), field goal percentage (50.5 percent) and scoring (11.9 PPG).
He is in a contract year and should see even more minutes at the point guard position.
Expect Rondo’s production to see a nice increase this season, but do not expect anywhere near the Oscar Robertson-like performance he displayed during last season’s playoffs.
16. Baron Davis (R)
Davis has played 70 only games once in the last nine NBA seasons.
Last season, he essentially gave up on the Clippers, apparent in his style of play.
Averages of 14.9 PPG and 37 FG% are atypical of the UCLA product.
Now, however, with Blake Griffin in the picture and a more positive attitude surrounding Clipper land, expect Davis’ numbers to be closer to his '07-'08 season with the Warriors (21.8 PPG, 7.6 APG, 191 steals, 173 3PTM).
17. Chauncey Billups (O, D)
Billups was a fantastic fit for Denver last season.
His leadership catapulted the Nuggets through the Western Conference playoffs and he is coming off a solid season of 17.9 PPG, 6.4 APG and over 91 FT%.
But Billups is starting to age quite a bit. The Nuggets front office realized this and acquired Ty Lawson from Minnesota on draft night.
Billups should see reduced minutes and will thus have a decreasing stat line.
18. Tracy McGrady (R, B)
Breakout?
McGrady already had his breakout seasons a half-decade ago when he was one of the premier scorers in the league on the Orlando Magic.
Two words: Contract Year.
Tracy is clearly heavily focused on his prospects come 2010. He intentionally sat out last year when word came out he was on the verge of being traded to New Jersey.
Now with his contract expiring, McGrady has vowed full health again. What a miracle.
Regardless of his strange indecisively injured statuses, McGrady will need to produce far greater numbers that at least mimic his early years in Houston (around 25 PPG, 6.3 APG and 5 RPG) if he wants an extension.
No Yao Ming in the picture should also mean a far heavier reliance on Coach Adelman to play the offense through T-Mac.
Despite all of this, be wary.
Tracy McGrady has played in fewer than 70 games in three of the last four seasons.
19. Vince Carter (D, R)
Carter's scoring averages have shown a steady decline over the last six seasons.
His 20.8 PPG and 5.1 RPG were his lowest since the 2004-2005 season.
Carter does have a propensity to be one of the few guards capable of averaging over 20 PPG, 5 RPG and 4 APG. In Orlando, though, his role is still uncertain.
Shots will be taken away from Carter to enable Jameer Nelson to develop and to create more post plays for Dwight Howard.
With stars already in place in Orlando, expect an even greater decline next season from Carter.
20. Andre Miller
Miller played well last season in Philly, averaging over 16 PPG, dishing out 6.5 APG, grabbing 4.5 RPG, taking away 173 total steals and shooting over 47 percent from the field and 82 percent from the line.
Miller is a steady, solid, consistent contributor. No surprises with this point guard.
Now with a new Portland team, his scoring totals may go down a bit considering he could be as low as the fourth offensive option on the squad behind Roy, Aldridge and possibly Oden.
His assists-per-game average could go up a tad, but expect a similar season to last year's with the Sixers.
21. OJ Mayo (B, R)
OJ Mayo should be poised for a breakout season in 2010-2011.
Last season he posted stellar numbers for a rookie: 18.5 PPG, 88% FT, 145 3PTM, 91 steals, nearly 4 RPG and over 3 APG.
The reason I use the word "should" is because one needs to be wary of the two offensive newcomers to the roster, Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson.
Both AI and Z-Bo need the ball to be effective and may need to use next season to catapult their individual careers.
As a rebuilding team, the Grizzlies M.O. should be to play the offense through Mayo. If they do this, OJ should have a season in which his numbers across the board increase by 20 percent.
It is still worth the risk snagging if he’s available him in the fourth, fifth or sixth rounds.
22. Jason Kidd (D)
Kidd is no longer the fantasy stud worthy of first or second round selections.
Kidd put together a nice season across the board in 2008-2009: 8.7 APG, 6.2 RPG and 160 steals.
Do not expect any offensive production from this guard. In fact, sometimes his paltry 41 percent field goal shooting can really damage a squad.
With Dallas aiming for a more up-tempo attack, Kidd’s assist totals may slightly increase, but coach Rick Carlisle will be hesitant to give Kidd excessive minutes at the ripe age of 36.
23. Ray Allen (D)
Allen had a solid bounce back season in 2008-2009, when he averaged over 18 PPG, shot 48 percent from the floor, over 95 percent from the line, and connected on 199 threes.
Ray’s offensive production is nice for any league containing FG% or FT% as a category.
His 3PTM can catapult your squad.
With the addition of Marquis Daniels, Ray’s minutes may start to decline, but do remember that this is a contract year for Allen.
24. Jose Calderon
If you’re looking for percentages and assists, Jose is your man.
Calderon last season dished out nearly 9 dimes per contest and shot roughly 50 percent from the field and an astonishing 98 percent from the line.
Jose’s assist totals have shown a steady increase ever since he entered the league in 2005.
The addition of Jarrett Jack may truncate his statistics slightly, but new wing offensive options such as Hedo Turkoglu and DeMar DeRozen could translate into an assist average that flirts with double digits.
25. Jameer Nelson (B, R, O)
Nelson deserves three letters.
He has breakout potential considering his play before the break last season and the notion of him entering his prime.
He’s also a risk due to the addition of Vince Carter. With VC now in Orlando, Nelson seems positioned to be the fourth option in the offense behind Carter, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis.
Finally, Jameer is also fairly overrated. He made the All-Star team last season mainly because David Stern felt the Magic deserved three representatives.
Nelson’s numbers may be quite different from the 16.7 PPG and 5.4 APG he posted last season. Those numbers could be slightly less considering Vinsanity’s presence at the two-guard.
Let someone else overrate him and draft him in one of the first four rounds of the fantasy draft.
26. Mo Williams
Williams had a so-so first season with Cleveland.
He averaged nearly 18 points per contest, hit an impressive 183 threes, shot over 91 percent from the free-throw line, but only delivered a mediocre 4.1 assists per game.
With Shaq now in the picture, common knowledge would assume Mo’s assists totals to increase and perhaps his scoring totals to decrease ever so slightly.
If Mo can find an assist average somewhere in between his Milwaukee days (over 6) and what he dished out last season, he’d be a solid pick in the fifth round of any fantasy draft.
27. Ben Gordon (B)
Joe Dumars spent way too much money this past off-season (five years, $58 million) on Ben Gordon not to use him appropriately.
Gordon is a pure scorer, averaging 20.7 PPG last season with 173 three pointers.
Now in Detroit, more offensive plays will be run through Gordon, so expect a 15 percent increase across the board from this Connecticut product.
28. John Salmons
Losing Ben Gordon may hurt Chicago down the stretch, but it certainly helps John Salmons’ numbers next season.
In 26 games as a Bull last season (after being traded from Sacramento mid-season) Salmons averaged 18.3 PPG, shot nearly 48 percent from the field, 82 percent from the line, connected on 126 three-pointers and grabbed a modest 4.2 rebounds per contest.
Salmons clearly fills a stat sheet quite nicely. His scoring numbers have also seen a nice climb every season since he entered the league in 2004 with Philly.
Luol Deng is supposedly healthy to start for the Bulls next season. Deng’s production at small forward may counter Salmons’ a bit, but the departure of Ben Gordon should counterbalance Salmon’s production to a hefty degree.
Expect John’s scoring average to flirt with 20 PPG and his rebounding totals to increase ever so slightly as well.
29. Mike Bibby (D)
Bibby’s numbers last season were respectable. He averaged 15 PPG, 5 APG and hit 167 threes.
The Hawks have acquired combo guard Jamaal Crawford this off-season, which should result in fewer minutes and a decreasing stat line for Mike.
Bibby should still see a hefty dosage of minutes at the point-guard slot, warranting a relatively similar output than that which he produced last season.
30. Jason Terry (O)
"The Jet" played perhaps his best NBA season in 2008-2009, averaging 19.6 PPG and being amongst the league leaders in threes made with 198.
Terry’s wonderful season could be attributed to Jason Kidd, but does seem somewhat atypical for him, having never been known as a fantasy stat stuffer.
A solid scoring average and hefty amount of 3PTM should be in order, but do not expect a duplicate performance of last season.
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