UNC Basketball: Bold Predictions for the Tar Heels' 2016-17 Season

After losing some key players from its Final Four run, there is a bit of mystery surrounding North Carolina heading into next season.

The Tar Heels are obviously in good shape after returning three starters and six of their top eight scorers, but you never know what will happen when players attempt to step into bigger roles. Even as a projected top contender both in the ACC and nationally, the upcoming season should be full of surprises in both good and bad ways.

Of course, the season cannot be judged only by the end result. The number of wins and the round reached in the NCAA tournament will go down in the record books, but other factors of both the individual and team level will tell us a lot.

Even though we are a long way from the start of the regular season, here is a look at some specific bold predictions for the 2016-17 campaign.

The Team Will Be Humbled Early

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North Carolina is no stranger to difficult nonconference matchups, and that is the case once again next season. While the official schedule has yet to be released, we already know a handful of games that will cause problems early on.

The Tar Heels will take on Kentucky in December in the CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas. While the Wildcats are once again inexperienced, they are extremely talented and won't have fear over a month into the season. Another difficult battle will come on the road against Indiana in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Even after losing Yogi Ferrell and Troy Williams, the Hoosiers should be one of the best teams in the Big Ten next year, and winning in Assembly Hall is never easy.

Meanwhile, the Maui Invitational features some much-improved squads like Wisconsin, Oregon and UConn, all of which have the talent to knock off North Carolina.

UNC had two nonconference losses last season, and both were relatively surprising upsets. Even with high hopes again this year, fans should expect quite a few more and to go into the ACC schedule with four or five defeats.

The Defense Surpasses the Offense

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The 2015-16 North Carolina offense was almost unstoppable. The fast-paced attack helped the squad average 82.8 points per game while also ranking No. 1 overall in efficiency on KenPom.com.

This style of play has been a hallmark of Roy Williams' coaching style, beating teams in a high-powered offense with a defense that is just good enough to win games. Since he took over the Tar Heels in 2003-04, the defense has only been ranked higher than the offense in efficiency once (2010-11), per KenPom.com.

However, this could happen once again in 2016-17 based on the changes in personnel.

Losing Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige will take away a lot of ability on the offensive end of the court. While Paige did struggle as a shooter this past season, he still represented an additional threat offensively while opening things up for everyone else on the team.

If the team does replace Paige with Theo Pinson in the starting lineup, however, there would be a clear upgrade defensively. The 6'6" guard is better suited to defend the perimeter as well as stopping the penetration that devastated the team a year ago. Meanwhile, Isaiah Hicks could actually represent an upgrade on defense as well due to his lateral quickness and ability to defend a pick-and-roll.

Neither of these players will be able to replicate the offensive numbers Johnson and Paige produced over their careers, but they can make a more consistent and highly efficient defense that ends up leading North Carolina to victory.

10 Different Players Score 150 Points

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North Carolina had some impressive balance last year with its offensive rotation, flirting with six players averaging double figures before ending with four players averaging at least 12 points per game.

Next season might not feature as much balance at the top, but there will be even more contributors than there were a year ago.

Eight players scored over 150 total points last season, which equals a little more than four points per game for 35 contests. While this doesn't sound like a big number, it's not easy getting everyone their shot attempts. Michigan State—which was one of the top contenders heading into the NCAA tournament—had only five players reach this mark.

With that said, the Tar Heels should have a lot of balance in the back of the rotation next year. Nate Britt should remain a constant force off the bench, but he won't be alone with all three freshmen—Tony Bradley, Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson—likely to make an impact. Luke Maye should also get more playing time due to a lack of options down low, and he is a bigger scoring threat than Joel James was.

It should be a deep rotation of players, with as many as 10 or 11 seeing the floor each game. All of them should contribute in some way and give the squad plenty of scoring options throughout the year.

Brandon Robinson Leads Freshmen in Scoring

Brandon Robinson is the least hyped of the three incoming freshmen, rated just 60th overall by 247Sports' composite rankings. Considering Bradley's standing as a McDonald's All-American and the excitement over Woods' mixtapes, it's understandable for the Georgia native to become an afterthought.

However, Robinson might be the most advanced player of the group, especially on the offensive end. The guard is a great shooter from the outside, and unlike Kenny Williams, he can also make opponents pay by slashing to the basket and finishing inside or with a mid-range pull-up.

While he definitely needs to add strength to his frame, Robinson has the length and athleticism scouts love from a shooting guard. With enough playing time, he could develop into an elite scorer at this level and possibly the NBA.

Considering how desperately the Tar Heels will need shooting next season, Robinson could end up getting plenty of playing time early on, and he should make it count.

With Bradley and Woods likely developing more well-rounded skills, the undervalued guard could become the best of the bunch.

Joel Berry Is First-Team All-ACC

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The ACC is losing a lot of its top players from last season. Leading scorer Cat Barber is gone, as is Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and a whole bunch of other high-profile stars. In fact, only Grayson Allen, Jaron Blossomgame and Michael Young remain from any of the three All-ACC teams from last year.

Meanwhile, UNC also lost some of its key players like Johnson and Paige, which means someone will have to step up and become a go-to option. That somebody is likely Joel Berry.

While Justin Jackson might have more pure talent and Kennedy Meeks has more experience, Berry has the type of aggressiveness needed to be a leader. He led the team last year in both assists and steals per game while ranking second behind only Johnson in points per game. With two key scorers out of the picture, it shouldn't be surprising to see the point guard take the reins for this team.

Berry averaged 12.8 points and 3.8 assists per game last season, but he has the capability of improving these stats to about 16-18 points and six to seven assists per game. These numbers on a contending team would be more than enough to land him on the All-Conference team as well as a threat for the league's Player of the Year award. 

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