NBA Free Agency 2016: Bold Predictions for Dwight Howard, DeMar DeRozan and More
It didn't need much in the way of help, but the 2016 NBA free-agency period got a little boost this week when the New York Knicks decided to trade for Derrick Rose.
The Knicks confirmed the move on Twitter, which not only builds hype for free agency to hurry up and get here but impacts where some of the top names on the market could go. Not only do point guards who are set to hit the market have one less destination to consider, but other players might look at New York in a new light.
Consider it nothing more than the opening salvo, too. Thursday night's draft is sure to reshape almost every roster in the league with some blockbuster deals brewing.
Before these changes, let's make some bold predictions for some of the biggest free agents available. And, no, Kevin Durant sticking with the Oklahoma City Thunder isn't a bold prediction—everybody knows he's not going anywhere.
Yet.
Mike Conley
Mike Conley looked like a strong fit with the Knicks before the Rose deal.
On paper, Conley would get to go to a much bigger market, become the household name he deserves to be and in a few years perhaps compete for a title, as opposed to suffering through a rebuild in Memphis.
And on paper, the Knicks would have received a 28-year-old point guard who is one of the best court generals in the league. Conley averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists per game on a 42-win team that was swept away in the first round of the playoffs.
Now it's all ruined.
Kidding aside, Conley's market just shrunk. While it seems like he would like to stick with the Memphis Grizzlies for the rest of his career, waiting on a rebuild with a 34-year-old Zach Randolph and a 31-year-old Marc Gasol doesn't make a ton of sense.
Of the few options available, Conley can either zero in on Rose's spot in Chicago or stick in the Western Conference with a team such as the Dallas Mavericks.
The latter seems to have a legit shot at him, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon:
The allure of Chicago has to be strong, but Dallas is willing to splurge and has firsthand knowledge of what Conley can do on a night-to-night basis.
If Conley's goal is to get out of a rebuild, joining Chicago—which appears to be the Jimmy Butler show and nothing more—doesn't make a ton of sense. Dallas boasts what should be a returning Dirk Nowitzki and plenty of cap space to bring other major names on board for a title push, as Mavs owner Mark Cuban looks to send Nowitzki out in style.
Prediction: Conley signs with the Mavericks.
DeMar DeRozan
DeMar DeRozan is ready to shine.
After spending seven seasons with the Toronto Raptors, one can't hate DeRozan for wanting to move on and etch out a name for himself elsewhere. The Raptors advanced further than ever in the playoffs this year, but it might be the peak for a team in a conference that is only getting stronger and now houses the champions.
DeRozan has been adamant he wants to stick with the Raptors, but the allure of more money and recognition has to be strong. It's at least partially why he went ahead and opted out of his contract, according to Cleveland.com's Chris Haynes:
Keep in mind Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri remained rather noncommittal when asked about DeRozan getting a max deal recently, according to Sportsnet's Eric Koreen:
That can change, but the market will decide DeRozan is worth every penny. Just 26 years old, the USC product hits the market after averaging 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
Pure scorers just don't come around often, which is why any team with the ability to ink a max will likely enter the fray for DeRozan.
One team has consistently come up with DeRozan this year—the Los Angeles Lakers. DeRozan calls Compton home, and it just so happens the Lakers have enough dough to sign a max deal—not to mention all the superstar endorsement deals DeRozan would get there.
The team also boasts a bright young core that is about to get a large boost via the second pick in the draft.
It's been apparent for a long time now the Lakers are the only team capable of yanking DeRozan away from the Raptors. Homecomings are the theme in the NBA right now, and when the money is the same—if not more—well, there's no place like home.
Prediction: DeRozan signs with the Lakers.
Believe it or not, free agency won't be easy on Dwight Howard.
True or not, the last few years haven't helped D12's reputation at all. He fizzled out with the Lakers after one season and lasted three disappointing years with the Houston Rockets as an odd fit on the court with James Harden.
To be fair to Howard, those are two of the more dysfunctional franchises in the league as of late. But now he heads toward an open market where he has to compete with a steady veteran in Al Horford, who will command as much attention, if not more.
Despite all his perceived faults, Howard is still 30 years old and averaged 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game last year.
He knows what he's worth, which is why he opted out of his deal, according to The Vertical's Shams Charania:
It's easy to write in Howard to the Knicks and call it a day. But that's assuming Knicks president Phil Jackson will want to look past Howard's issues.
More importantly, that's assuming Howard wants to play second fiddle not only to Rose but also Carmelo Anthony.
Howard was always at his best with Orlando, where he was the guy. And imagine that—Orlando needs a guy again, and the two sides have already been linked, per ESPN's Mark Jones back in April:
This is the year of redemption stories. LeBron James went home and got Cleveland a title.
Now it's Howard's turn to attempt the same feat. He could reunite with a Magic team that is stronger than when he departed, with young guys such as Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon willing to play around him.
It's not as sexy as Howard throwing on a Knicks uniform, but the last few years have probably shown him just how great he had it in Orlando.
Prediction: Howard signs with the Magic.
All stats and info via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
