Mexico Must Win Midfield Battle If They Are to End Chile's Copa America Reign

With all due respect to the nations in the other three quarter-finals at the Copa America Centenario, Mexico against Chile is the tie of the round.

Saturday’s game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, is a clash worthy of being the final.

In one corner stands Mexico, a nation on a 22-match unbeaten run who, while not quite playing on home soil, will have the majority of support inside the venue (which is sold out, according to Jon Arnold of Goal).

In the other corner is Chile, the 2015 Copa champions who, after scoring a combined tally of six goals in their last two outings, could be coming back into form at just the right time.

The countries met in a pre-tournament friendly on June 2. Mexico came out on top—Javier Hernandez, on as a late substitute, scored the only goal of the game with four minutes remaining.

VICTOR STRAFFON/Getty Images

This time, however, there is nothing friendly about their meeting.

Their previous competitive fixture was just over a year ago. On June 15, at the 2015 Copa America, host nation Chile and Mexico fought out a 3-3 draw in Group A.

Four days later, El Tri were beaten 2-1 by Ecuador and missed out on qualifying for the knockout stages. They haven’t lost since, despite a change of permanent coach during the streak.

Current boss Juan Carlos Osorio had won nine on the spin before Monday’s 1-1 draw with Venezuela. Now, the Colombian faces the biggest test of his short but successful reign.

When it comes to picking a team, Osorio has been chopping and changing ever since taking charge. Now he needs to decide whether to stick or twist.

El Tri have never won the Copa America, but they have all the tools needed to make history in 2016. There's strength in depth in their squad, speed on the flanks with their plethora of wingers and, in Hernandez, a supreme poacher up top to take the chances they create.

As Duncan Tucker pointed out in the Guardian, it is hard not to carried away with the idea this could be their year to finally lift the trophy:

"

Mexico have not made it past the quarter-finals in a World Cup and they have never won the Copa America, with defeats to Argentina and Colombia in the 1993 and 2001 finals respectively representing the closest they have come to lifting the trophy.

Expectant fans are beginning to dream that this could be their year, but as Mexico’s momentum builds, so too does the pressure on Osorio to deliver. His side may never get a better shot.

"

To keep the dream alive, El Tri have to work their way past Chile.

Per Transfermarkt.co.uk, both countries started with a 4-3-3 formation in their friendly meeting earlier in the month.

Osorio is known to adapt his team’s system to how the opposition play. With La Roja likely to field three central midfielders again, El Tri's coach will not want to be caught short of numbers in the engine room.

ESPN FC journalist Tom Marshall—who specialises in covering Mexican football—tweeted a suggested starting XI on Thursday:

There is plenty to excite Mexican fans in that side, particularly up front. FC Porto’s Jesus "Tecatito" Corona scored a stunning goal to draw his side level against Venezuela, while Hirving Lozano is one of the brightest prospects in the domestic game.

Hernandez, meanwhile, was rested from the starting XI for the final group fixture, but he will no doubt return to his rightful spot in the centre of the forward line. He needs just one more goal to equal Jared Borgetti’s Mexican record of 46.

For all the talent up top, El Tri cannot prosper if they do not have possession. With that in mind, the key battle in California will be in the middle of the field.

Trying to guess an Osorio lineup is never easy, but you can be certain he will find places for Andres Guardado and Hector Herrera in the team.

The two midfielders are pivotal. Good in possession, they also have great awareness. With striker Hernandez alone in the middle, one of Guardado or, more likely, Herrera will look to get into the area to provide support.

Herrera has already scored in the competition, netting Mexico’s final goal in the 3-1 triumph over Uruguay. He can also create, too. Per Zachary Singer of ESPN Stats & Info, the 26-year-old has laid on 11 chances in the three Group C games, more than any other player in the tournament.

His form for club and country could earn him a lucrative summer switch. According to Mimmo Malfitano of La Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t Gazzetta World), Napoli and Liverpool are both interested in signing the player.

Before he works out where his future lies, Herrera will hope to extend his time away on international duty. For that to happen, he must help Mexico overcome a Chile midfield containing Bayern Munich's Arturo Vidal. 

However, Guardado and Herrera are capable of competing with any of their big-name rivals at the Copa.

Guardado's importance to Mexico was made clear by his absence in the group game against Jamaica. Sent off against Uruguay, he watched on as his team-mates turned in a rather sloppy performance in a 2-0 win.

Guilty of giving the ball away inside their own half, they were fortunate the Jamaicans didn't punish them. Rest assured, a Chile attack featuring Alexis Sanchez will not be so forgiving.

But, if Mexico are able to seize control in midfield thanks to the efforts of Guardado and Herrera, there is every chance they can sink La Roja and reach the last four.