NBA Draft 2016: Round 1 Predictions, Updated Order and Projections for Top Stars
The first pick in the 2016 NBA draft hasn't been officially spoiled, but it's easy to narrow down the suspects. Everyone knows that either LSU's Ben Simmons or Duke's Brandon Ingram will come off the board first on Thursday, June 23, to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Which isn't a bad thing—a boring start doesn't equate to a boring event. The draft features elite guards such as Jamal Murray and tantalizing projects such as Dragan Bender, so the first two players taken are more like an appetizer than the main course this year.
With such a theme in mind, let's take a look at an updated order and mock before breaking down the fate of some top stars.
2016 NBA Draft Round 1 Predictions
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | F Ben Simmons, LSU |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | SF Brandon Ingram, Duke |
| 3. | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) | PF Dragan Bender, Croatia |
| 4. | Phoenix Suns | SG Jamal Murray, Kentucky |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | SF Jaylen Brown, California |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | SG Buddy Hield, Oklahoma |
| 7. | Denver Nuggets (via New York) | F Marquese Chriss, Washington |
| 8. | Sacramento Kings | PG Kris Dunn, Providence |
| 9. | Toronto Raptors (via Denver) | C Jakob Poeltl, Utah |
| 10. | Milwaukee Bucks | C Thon Maker, Orangeville Prep |
| 11. | Orlando Magic | PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State |
| 12. | Utah Jazz | F Henry Ellenson, Marquette |
| 13. | Phoenix Suns (via Washington) | C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | G Tyler Ulis, Kentucky |
| 15. | Denver Nuggets (via Houston) | SG Furkan Korkmaz, Turkey |
| 16. | Boston Celtics (via Dallas) | SG Timothe Luwawu, France |
| 17. | Memphis Grizzlies | PG Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame |
| 18. | Detroit Pistons | SG Denzel Valentine, Michigan State |
| 19. | Denver Nuggets (via Portland) | G Caris LeVert, Michigan |
| 20. | Indiana Pacers | PF Brice Johnson, North Carolina |
| 21. | Atlanta Hawks | C Diamond Stone, Maryland |
| 22. | Charlotte Hornets | PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga |
| 23. | Boston Celtics | F Paul Zipser, Germany |
| 24. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami) | G Malik Beasley, Florida State |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | C Cheick Diallo, Kansas |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City) | F Dorian Finney-Smith, Florida |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | F Taurean Prince, Baylor |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland) | C Damian Jones, Vanderbilt |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | PG Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | C Zhou Qi, China |
1. Philadelphia 76ers: F Ben Simmons, LSU
There's no reason to think anyone but Simmons comes off the board first.
Some will point out Ingram is a better prospect right now because of his deep shot, which he converted on a 41 percent clip last year compared to Simmons' 33.3 percent.
But a prospect can always work on his shot, especially a 19-year-old with perhaps more upside than any player in a long time.
An anonymous NBA general manager spoke on such an issue in a recent ESPN.com scouting report: "The one thing that almost always gets better from college to the pros is a guy's jumper. It's a fixable problem, and frankly, I'm not sure how much of a problem it really is. LeBron [James] couldn't shoot when he came out. Lots of guys couldn't. They get better."
Everything else about Simmons screams No. 1 pick. He's 6'10" and 240 pounds already. He's versatile—with an ability to slash to the rim and create for himself and others—so much so that he can play the coveted but rare point forward role.
Philadelphia doesn't have a reason to pass, especially with the roster already loaded with under-the-basket talent such as Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. Addressing the backcourt can come later; the 76ers won't reach past a prospect who most would tank for in the hopes of building around him for years.
3. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn): PF Dragan Bender, Croatia
Bender got an earlier mention because he's almost just as rare a prospect as either of the top two picks in the mock above.
He's a 7'1", 216-pounder who can stretch the floor with his shooting. While his frame implies a lack of strength, getting a prospect in the weight room is even easier than working with him on improving his shot.
According to reporter David Pick, Bender has drawn some notable interest:
It's impossible not to mention the Boston Celtics alongside Bender.
The fit makes too much sense: Boston has one of the most intriguing backcourts in the Association and one that led the team to the postseason, so taking another guard such as the aforementioned Murray would seem like overkill.
Bender, though, would provide depth behind the shaky starting duo of Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger. Granted, he won't be much help during his rookie season or perhaps for a few years while he adapts to the pro game and adds strength, but Boston sits on plenty of draft picks this year and doesn't need each one to contribute right out of the gates.
There's plenty of risk with Bender, but Boston is one of those rare teams capable of affording a bit of a luxury-upside pick in the top five. Provided Boston doesn't move around in the draft, Bender's fate seems tied to the organization.
7. Denver Nuggets (via New York): F Marquese Chriss, Washington
A prospect can fall into the "late riser" category and still classify as a top star in a draft class.
The prospect has to be worth the label, though, as it often seems guys who shoot up draft boards late wind up busting, perhaps because of smoke screens.
It's different with Washington's Marquese Chriss, who never received proper attention until late in the process. He's a 6'10", 233-pound forward who averaged 13.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game last year, and NBA teams like Chriss for his versatility, given his 35 percent clip from deep as a freshman.
Chriss is raw but arguably the most explosive athlete in the draft. He's a project in terms of his overall feel for the game, but he hasn't been shy in addressing his negative talking points so far. He spoke with Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders about what he's working on the most.
"Shooting, absolutely,” Chriss said. “I’m trying to stretch the floor a lot, and I feel that shooting is a strong suit of mine and [something] that I’ve gotten a lot better at—from NBA range, shots off the dribble and stuff like that. I’m trying to keep getting better at all of that."
A surefire top-10 pick, Chriss looks like a strong fit for the Denver Nuggets. In theory, Denver has a one-two punch underneath the basket with Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic and can count on Emmanuel Mudiay directing the offense.
Add in an explosive, athletic scorer such as Chriss, and Denver not only gets a new leader, but perhaps begins to compete once again.
All stats and info via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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