England Must Be More Conservative or Face Being Picked off by Wales

Rivalries are the product of their circumstance. So while England and Wales haven’t always contested the fiercest of conflicts, the potential consequence of Thursday’s crunch clash has provided the fixture with a different dimension. Whether it lasts beyond Euro 2016 or not, this is undoubtedly a rivalry right now.

The trash talk started almost as soon as both teams had completed their opening games in France. In fact, it started before the tournament as a whole had kicked off, with Gareth Bale claiming England “big themselves up before they’ve done anything,” also adding that Wales have “a lot more passion and pride about us than them”—as per BBC Sport.

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Jack Wilshere subsequently took on the role as England’s defender earlier this week. “We know that Wales don't like us,” he admitted at the national team’s Chantilly base—as per Sky Sports. He responded “not really” when asked whether he and his England team-mates were particularly fond of Wales.

And so Lens will become a battleground for this recently sparked animosity—although hopefully not literally after the violence witnessed in Marseille over the past week. England are considered heavyweights as the two sides prepare to square up, but the dynamic of this contest has shifted in recent years. Wales might still be underdogs, but their bite may now be as bad as their bark. 

Their victory over Slovakia in their opening group game has put them in a real position of strength ahead of Thursday’s match. Taking into account the European Championships' new 24-team format, Chris Coleman’s side can take aim at England in the knowledge that their passage into the knockout rounds might already be assured. The value of a win in the group stages of a major tournament has never been greater.

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So how should Roy Hodgson set up his England team to combat the threat Wales will pose? The Three Lions started their Euro 2016 campaign with a draw, and so if they are to top Group B, giving them better chance of a favourable draw in the last 16, victory over the Dragons is imperative. How can that be achieved?

Against Russia Hodgson’s side were expansive and fluid throughout. While England might have succumbed to a stoppage-time equaliser, they turned in a generally impressive display at the Stade Velodrome. On the basis of their opening performance alone, England must be considered one of the front-runners at this summer’s European Championships.

England created chances, but they lacked cutting edge in their failure to take them. There’s little Hodgson can do to change that. He must simply place his faith in Harry Kane in the hope that he will find his goalscoring touch before the tournament is out. 

Alternatively, he could opt to field Jamie Vardy up front alongside Kane, giving the Spurs striker a partner in the final third. Wayne Rooney could also be pushed further up the pitch, although his display in central midfield against Russia suggests Hodgson will persist with his captain in that position for at least another outing. 

However, to see off Wales England must focus on being more conservative. That might seem counter-productive, considering how well their expansive approach worked against Russia, but Thursday’s match will present an entirely different proposition. Hodgson must change his team accordingly.

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It might be overly simplistic to suggest that by stopping Bale England can stop Wales, but it is true that the Real Madrid winger presents the biggest threat to Hodgson’s side in Lens. England must therefore tailor their system to ensure that Bale doesn’t destroy their Euro 2016 chances. 

Kyle Walker was given the freedom of the right wing against Russia, turning in one of his best performances in an England shirt. But Hodgson can't play him in the same way against Wales. The England boss must pin his full-backs back or run the risk of Bale exploiting the space in behind them. Walker might be tempted to attack, but against Wales his first responsibility must be to defend.

Hodgson must also consider whether Rooney provides enough defensive cover to play in the centre of midfield against Aaron Ramsey, who is certainly more mobile than the Man Utd forward. England might find themselves overrun through the middle if they opt to field Rooney there. James Milner or Wilshere might be the safer option in that role. 

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England were expected to dominate Russia, which they did. They are also expected to have the majority of possession, controlling much of the territory against Wales too. But unlike their opening Euro 2016 fixture, England will have to account for Wales’ attacking threat much more than they did against Russia. 

It’s not just Bale that England must handle with care. Ramsey, as he demonstrated for Wales’ winner against Slovakia, can providing a driving force from the middle of the pitch, with Ashley Williams a threat from set pieces and both full-backs also offering an outlet down the wings. This Welsh side is an accomplished outfit that could go deep in this competition.

But while Hodgson has plenty to work through on the tactics board, his public efforts have focused on extinguishing the fire that threatens to engulf Thursday’s fixture. "I've been in the game sufficiently long to know every opponent has got an opinion," Hodgson said, per BBC Sport ahead of Thursday’s clash with Wales. "They can have those opinions, but I don't have any doubts personally about our patriotism or desire, and that's the important thing.”

From whichever angle it is viewed, Thursday’s clash between England and Wales is an undoubtedly compelling one. Bale has taken it upon himself to be the primary antagonist in the run-up to kick-off in Lens, and he will likely be the primary antagonist on the pitch, too, at least from an English perspective.