2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of Indiana's Yogi Ferrell
Yogi Ferrell was a surprise snub at last month's NBA Draft Combine—one of college basketball's best players not receiving an invite.
It was a cruel omission, and don't rule out the Indiana University star as a possible second-rounder just because he didn't make the cut. Ferrell will be a better pro than a number of guys who were in attendance.
| Age | 23 (Born May 9, 1993) |
| Team | Indiana |
| Height | 6'0" |
| Weight | 180 |
The rule change that allowed underclassmen to attend the combine and then decide on whether to stay in the draft or go back to school hurts college seniors. NBA teams essentially pick the invitees, sending to the league a list of players they would like to evaluate. This suggests Ferrell is already in the top 60 on most draft boards, even if he's not listed on most mock drafts.
Last year, four college players who did not attend the combine went in the second round. The fact that scouts have had so many chances through the years to see Ferrell could be one reason he wasn't on the list.
Relevant stats
| 2015-16 | 17.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 45.8 | 42.0 | 82.9 |
| 2014-15 | 16.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 43.9 | 41.6 | 86.0 |
| 2013-14 | 17.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 41.3 | 40.0 | 82.4 |
| 2012-13 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 40.3 | 30.3 | 79.8 |
It's rare to find a playmaking point guard who offers the vision and outside shooting touch that Ferrell possesses. He and Michigan State's Denzel Valentine are by themselves in this draft when it comes to passing and shooting.
Strengths
Ferrell had the most lethal pull-up jumper in college hoops. He can be dribbling at close to full speed and stop on a dime to release his shot.
Nearly half of his threes (49.4 percent) were unassisted, according to Hoop-Math.com's data. To shoot as well as he did and have so few three-pointers come off spot-ups is a rarity. (He's the only player in the draft to shoot better than 40 percent from distance and have less than 60 percent of his threes come via the assist.)
Ferrell's height gets used against him in the evaluation process, but his low center of gravity, tight handle, balance and upper body strength mean he's usually able to get where he wants to go and always has his head up, surveying the floor for open teammates.
Indiana's space-and-pace offense suited Ferrell and resembled some of the top NBA attacks—the college version of the Golden State Warriors. He got a solid education in creating space and setting up three-point shooters.
The Hoosiers led the nation in effective field-goal percentage, and Ferrell deserves a lot of credit for the program's efficiency during his four years as the starting point guard. He went from running an offense built around talented big man Cody Zeller during his freshman year to a small-ball, three-happy unit the past two years.
| Adj. Off. Eff. | Rank | eFG% | Rank | |
| 2015-16 | 119.5 | 6 | 58.7 | 1 |
| 2014-15 | 116.7 | 9 | 54.4 | 20 |
| 2013-14 | 106.5 | 127 | 49.8 | 159 |
| 2012-13 | 117.9 | 3 | 54.8 | 9 |
Weaknesses
It's not easy to survive in the NBA at Ferrell's height. He's listed at 6'0", but that could be generous. (Unfortunately, the combine would have been a nice opportunity to see his actual measurements.)
Ferrell's height will put him at a disadvantage on the defensive side, which was a weakness for most of his college career. He hasn't always shown the focus and intensity there that you would expect from a guy who has been the leader of IU's program the past three seasons.
| 2015-16 | 58.9 |
| 2014-15 | 52.0 |
| 2013-14 | 54.2 |
| 2012-13 | 52.9 |
He did improve as a senior.
Following a poor start to the season and an embarrassing defensive performance at Duke—the Blue Devils scored 1.52 points per possession, their second-highest output of the last 15 years—IU's defense was respectable for most of the remaining schedule. IU's defense ranked third in efficiency in the Big Ten during conference play, per kenpom.com.
Ferrell led that charge, but his defense is still a question mark entering the NBA.
His lack of size also affects his ability to finish around the basket (see chart). He doesn't have the leaping ability to compensate and could use a floater game to help him score in the lane.
NBA Player Comparison
Ferrell is built like Dallas Mavericks point guard J.J. Barea (also listed at 6'0"), and their strengths are similar. Both get a lot of their buckets from the perimeter off the bounce.
Barea was undrafted out of Northeastern in 2006 and has played 10 NBA seasons already, getting better with age. He was not as accomplished a shooter out of college as Ferrell—he shot 32.1 percent from three in four years at Northeastern—but improved as both a three-point and mid-range threat throughout his career.
Best-Case Scenario
Ferrell has the jumper and confidence to have a career like Barea's. He just needs to land in the right spot. Barea has had the luxury of starting and spending most of his career in Dallas for a franchise that is willing to operate outside the box. It's proof that going undrafted can sometimes be a favorable position.
Worst-Case Scenario
The worst-case scenario for Ferrell is he ends up overseas and makes a lot of money playing basketball across the pond. He is intelligent on and off the court—he was one of the sharper interviews on the college basketball beat.
He seems like the type who is going to make the best of his situation wherever he ends up.
Prediction
Ferrell's pull-up jumper and basketball IQ makes him an intriguing bench piece. He has experienced pressure at Indiana and knows how to run an offense; he's produced and won at a high level. All of that is not easy to find in the draft.
His age, size and explosiveness are all working against him, but compared to other point guards who grade out as second-round picks in this draft, there are fewer question marks with Ferrell.
Only one team needs to like Ferrell for him to get his name called on June 23, and reports from his predraft workouts are encouraging. Also worth noting: Miami Heat guard Josh Richardson was one of the second-round picks who didn't get a combine invite last year, and he ended up as one of the top success stories of the rookie class.
It's going to take a team that sees Ferrell in a Barea type of role for him to ever crack an NBA rotation. If he lands in the right spot, he has the goods to grow into a quality backup point guard.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
