European Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Baku Race
The European Grand Prix has returned to the Formula One calendar after a four-year break.
But while the event itself is familiar, having first joined the schedule as a standalone race in 1983, the venue and the track is unlike anything the sport has seen before.
Almost two years after announcing an agreement to stage a grand prix, the Azerbaijani capital of Baku will welcome Lewis Hamilton and Co. for the first time this weekend.
With a large straight, a surprising number of high-speed corners and some of the tightest turns in motor racing, the track is expected to be one of the fastest and challenging street circuits on the planet, producing exciting and, at times, chaotic racing.
With looks at how the track layout could make or break the race, a potential winner, how Baku ambassador Fernando Alonso will fare and more, here are five bold predictions for the European GP.
At Least 2 Red-Flag Stoppages During the Race
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By now, you'll have seen the artists' impressions. You'll have seen the photographs of the cobbled streets, coated in asphalt for the race weekend. You'll have watched the onboard video proving it really is as precarious as it looks.
And each time, you probably wondered how 22 Formula One cars will make it through Turns 8, 9, 10 and 11 of the Baku City Circuit.
The truth is that they almost certainly won't, and the race organisers will succeed in engineering organised chaos at a part of the track that probably shouldn't exist but, paradoxically, could very quickly become one of the most revered pieces of F1 road.
No matter what happens in qualifying and the race, the first European Grand Prix to be held in Azerbaijan is likely to be remembered as one giant red flag as the drivers experiment with different approaches at a part of the track just 7.6 metres wide, per the circuit's official website.
Although measures will surely be put in place to recover cars swiftly, suspended sessions are inevitable, and the interruptions will probably be most frequent during the grand prix itself, when the drivers will be dodging each other as well as the walls of some old castle.
A (non-serious) accident on the opening lap will create a roadblock, leading to the first red-flag stoppage of the afternoon and ensuring the race will restart behind the safety car, encouraging the drivers to follow each other in single-file.
If we're fortunate, that may be the last of the red flags until the closing stages, when one driver will make a mistake under braking for Turn 8 and clout the outside wall, potentially bringing a slightly premature end to the 51-lap race if there are only a handful of laps remaining.
Sebastian Vettel Will Win from 2nd on the Grid
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As Max Verstappen ended their 31-race winless streak in Spain and Daniel Ricciardo secured their first pole position since 2013 in Monaco, it felt like Red Bull had displaced Ferrari as Mercedes' closest challengers in recent weeks.
Having entered the season intending to claim his fifth world championship, Sebastian Vettel's new team had seemingly fallen behind the team he left behind at the end of 2014.
But while Prancing Horse threw away another potential victory last weekend, the Canadian Grand Prix offered evidence that Ferrari and Vettel are just beginning to rediscover the momentum—and charm—they carried through 2015.
After Vettel—aided by the team's new turbocharger and revised rear suspension—qualified within 0.2 seconds of Lewis Hamilton's pole time at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff explained that Ferrari are now close enough to keep the Silver Arrows "on [their] toes," per F1i.com's Chris Medland.
Likewise, Hamilton admitted Ferrari looked "very quick" in Canada, adding that the team had "picked up their pace in a straight line," per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson.
And that increase in straight-line pace is likely to come in handy in Azerbaijan, where the cars will reach eye-watering speeds on the long, kinked straight between the final heavy-braking zone of Turn 16 and Turn 1.
We reckon Vettel will beat a flustered Nico Rosberg to a place on the front row and take advantage of another slow start for Hamilton to claim the lead during the first series of 90-degree turns.
And provided Ferrari don't make another questionable strategy call, trying to be a little too clever for their own good, Vettel's season will really begin in Baku.
Nico Hulkenberg Will Finally Return to the Top 5
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Given a free choice, Nico Hulkenberg probably wouldn't bother travelling to Azerbaijan this weekend.
When, toward the end of last year, it became clear that the returning European GP would clash with the Le Mans 24 Hours in 2016, Hulkenberg admitted he was disappointed to be denied the opportunity to defend the trophy he won alongside Nick Tandy and Earl Bamber in 2015, per Sky Sports' Mike Wise.
Porsche's decision to enter just two cars in this season's event meant the German would have been prevented a return to the Circuit de la Sarthe regardless, but Hulkenberg can still summon the spirit of Le Mans 2015 on the streets of Baku.
After an underwhelming start to the year—one points finish in the opening five races—the Force India driver has performed like his old self in recent weeks, running solidly in the top 10 in Monaco and Canada.
Deputy team principal Bob Fernley told Autosport (h/t Eurosport) how sixth-placed Hulkenberg could have joined team-mate Sergio Perez on the podium in Monte Carlo had the pit wall timed his first stop slightly better.
And although eighth was arguably the best possible result in Montreal, where Williams' Valtteri Bottas joined the usual three-way fight between Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull, it was heartening that Hulkenberg later told the team's official website he "was hoping for a bit more from the race."
With the track featuring long, high-speed stretches as well as technical sections typical of a street circuit, the VJM09—a strong, all-round car following Force India's major upgrade in Spain—should operate well in Baku.
And Hulkenberg will finally secure the big result he has been searching for, finishing in the top five for the first time in two years.
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Baku Ambassador Fernando Alonso Will Retire with a Honda-Related Problem
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It was, in truth, one of the more unexpected press statements of 2016.
"Baku City Circuit (BCC) is today delighted to announce two-time Formula 1 World Champion and current McLaren Honda driver, Fernando Alonso, as the official ambassador for the 2016 FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX OF EUROPE," shouted the track's official website at the beginning of March.
Alonso, for his part, was honoured and "thrilled to be chosen as an ambassador" for the European GP, and his status as the face of the race should generate interest in a region with very little motorsport heritage.
His role saw the Spaniard make a two-day trip to Azerbaijan shortly before the beginning of the season, becoming the first active F1 driver to visit Baku.
And who knows? That pre-visit might give Alonso, who won the last European GP at Valencia in 2012, a slight advantage over his competitors during the grand prix weekend itself.
Yet on a weekend on which the Le Mans 24 Hours—an event he has been desperate to participate in for some time—takes place, we fear Alonso will endure his most challenging race of the season, with reliability problems plaguing him in the same way they haunted McLaren team-mate Jenson Button in Canada.
A smoky engine blowout in the opening minutes of qualifying will leave Alonso stranded at the rear of the grid before he retires with another Honda-related issue less than 10 laps into the race.
Esteban Gutierrez Will End Haas' Point-Less Streak
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After charging into the sport with top-six finishes in each of the opening two races, there is an acceptance that Haas have now found their level in Formula One.
Since Romain Grosjean's fifth-place in Bahrain, the American outfit have been restricted to just one top-10 result in the last five races and have become familiar with running just outside the points, usually somewhere in the region of 11th and 14th place.
While Grosjean has taken the team's sudden fall from grace rather badly, team-mate Esteban Gutierrez—now back up to speed in F1 after an unfortunate, error-ridden start to his comeback season—appears to be thriving in the more challenging circumstances.
Having finished 11th in Spain and Monaco, where he outqualified Grosjean for the first time in 2016, he was again the faster Haas driver over one lap in Canada, beating the Frenchman by more than 0.2 seconds in difficult conditions on Saturday.
Only another front-wing failure prevented Grosjean from reasserting his superiority over Gutierrez in the race, yet finishing ahead of his team-mate for a third race in succession should provide the Mexican with more confidence ahead of F1's step into the unknown.
With the current performance of the VF-16 car leaving Haas directly in the middle of the grid, there is a danger that both Grosjean and Gutierrez—both of whom are prone to silly mistakes and occasional lapses in concentration—will be at the centre of any chaos during the race.
But we're backing Gutierrez to stay out of trouble and secure only his second F1 points finish.
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