Game 5 Loss Doesn't Change Fact That Penguins Are Still Dominating Sharks

On Thursday, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a chance to eliminate the San Jose Sharks and win a Stanley Cup on home ice in front of the partisans who have cheered them on over the course of the 2016 playoffs.

They failed.

That, though, is the nice thing about having previously earned a 3-1 lead in the series. The Penguins have another kick at the can on Sunday. If they can’t get the job done then, they get yet another shot next Wednesday. They only need to win one of those games.

Given how thoroughly the Pens have dominated the Sharks in the Final, there’s no question that the smart money is on Pittsburgh to hoist the Cup.

Indeed, in a lot of ways, even the Game 5 loss favoured Pittsburgh. The shot clock was 46-22 in favour of the home side, while the ratio of shot attempts for and against was almost identical (76-36). In every period of the game, the Penguins outshot the Sharks 2-1. San Jose goaltender Martin Jones was spectacular, outplaying counterpart Matt Murray, but otherwise there was little in the Sharks' performance that was remarkable.

Curtis Pashelka’s article for the Waterloo Region Record captures that reality nicely from the Sharks’ side of things. He quotes head coach Peter DeBoer criticizing the penalty kill and defenceman Justin Braun praising his goalie and citing the need for better neutral zone management. There is also a telling statement from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who was so effective at shutting down St. Louis' Vladimir Tarasenko in the Western Conference Final.

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press/Associated Press

“We'll be better because we know they'll be better,” Vlasic said after Game 5. “We have to bring a better effort than we did tonight.”

None of the comments would have been out of place following a loss. Given the kind of win it was for San Jose, it was appropriate for the team’s coach and skaters to be looking for an area to improve.

The problem is, it wasn’t a one-off. The defining characteristic of the Final has been Pittsburgh’s ability to dominate play. At even strength alone, Jones has faced 60 more shots than Murray. That’s over just five games—and five games in which the Pens have spent a lot of time playing with the lead. (NHL teams generally see their shot totals drop off after they take the lead as they adopt a more defensive posture.) For a series between two teams of such obvious quality, that’s close to a rout.

The only reason the series is close is because of the aforementioned goaltenders. Jones has averaged 42 saves and a 0.955 save percentage in San Jose’s two wins. Murray has made 41 saves total in the two losses and sports a 0.872 save percentage over those contests.

Still, Pens coach Mike Sullivan expressed confidence in his rookie goaltender, per the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran:

"

I’m sure Matt will respond fine. He’s done it all year long. He’s a real good goalie. One of the things we love about him is his demeanour. He really has a calming influence on the group. He’s done a terrific job in such a high-stakes environment all season for us. I think that’s the experience that’s going to serve him well. So we have a lot of trust he’ll respond the right way.

"

Murray has done a nice job of rebounding from defeat in these playoffs, going 5-0 with a 0.935 save percentage following a loss. Whether that’s predictive of what will happen in Game 6 is an open question, particularly since Murray’s post-loss numbers in the AHL this year were not nearly so rosy (5-5-0, 0.908 save percentage), but it does at least display a capacity for bouncing back from an undesired outcome.

It’s probably more relevant to point out Murray has been strong since taking over the starting job in Pittsburgh late in the regular season. His track record includes three impressive performances—all victories—in this series.

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press/Associated Press

At this point in a series, where a team with a formidable lead has failed to eliminate its vulnerable opponent, it’s traditional to push the comeback story—to highlight Jones’ heroism and the many strong points on the underdog’s roster. It’s only natural; underdogs and comeback tales are a lot more fun than ruthless efficiency from a dominant team.  

The reason those stories are more fun is because of the surprise factor. According to WhoWins.com, teams with a 3-2 series lead in the NHL win 78 percent of the time, and 79 percent of the time in the final round, which is a little better than what we would expect from two evenly matched teams (75 percent). Intuitively, we know that a team down 3-2 in a series is going to lose more often than not; we also know that as a general rule those teams deserve it.

There’s a lot of appeal in the idea of these plucky Sharks fighting back from a 3-1 deficit, slaying the yellow-clad Goliath and winning the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. However, as someone who watched Pittsburgh earn a big lead over those same Sharks through superior play, I know it’s still very much the Penguins’ championship to lose.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.