Lock 'Em Up: Top 2016 NBA Free Agents Teams Can't Afford to Lose
Some NBA free agents actually are irreplaceable.
We talk about the top available talents a lot, mostly assuming incumbent teams are better off retaining each potential flight risk. That's a fair presumption, but certain squads can survive or rationalize the departures of select household names.
For example, the Atlanta Hawks can justify not handing Al Horford a max deal at his age (30), with Tiago Splitter already on the roster and a rebuild perhaps on the horizon. The Dallas Mavericks don't need to give Chandler Parsons max money just to say they're trying to make the most of Dirk Nowitzki's twilight.
Other teams don't have the luxury of gray areas. They need their top guns back in the fold next season. There is no recovering from their exits anytime soon.
Yes, there will be some "duh" moments involved. But our aim is to narrow down the most desperate situations even further. We sift through every player in the max-contract discussion and then single out the few names who cannot be even slightly replaced by their present squad. Some players are too important to immediate or long-term success. Others have their teams in a uniquely irreparable situation.
Can't Lose and Won't Lose
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Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons (restricted)
Is there a more pointless exercise in restricted free agency than Andre Drummond?
The Detroit Pistons won't re-sign him right away, only because they're taking advantage of his curtailed cap hold to spend the balance on other free agents.
But inevitably, they're going to hand him a max deal. What say you, Pistons owner Tom Gores?
"No hesitation," he told reporters after Detroit's first-round exit, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell. "Come on, look at all the big guys in the league. Come on."
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs (player option)
Basketball public at large: "The San Antonio Spurs still cannot afford to lose Tim Duncan."
Basketball public at large after being force-fed potent truth serum: "OK, technically San Antonio can do without Duncan. But if he doesn't retire and wears anything other than a Spurs jersey, there's a chance reality as we know it will cease to exist."
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs (player option)
See: Tim Duncan.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (player option)
Nowitzki doesn't sound like a basketball grandpa who wants to play one more season with the Mavericks. He sounds like someone who wants to stay put for the next few years, per the Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko:
"Haven't decided 100 percent, but I've met with Donnie (Nelson) and I just met with Mark (Cuban) once I came back from vacation just seeing what the next few years could bring for this franchise, who's available, what's best for both sides. Since I felt great and played sort of decent, I might opt out and maybe sign a two- or three-year deal. We'll see how it goes, but that's probably the plan for now.
"
Houston general manager Daryl Morey is going to be so upset.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Guys, come on. This isn't 2010. Dwyane Wade won't be parading his talents around the NBA, flirting with rival teams.
In fact, when it comes to matters of free agency, Wade is starting to give off a cranky "get off my (million-dollar beachfront professionally landscaped) lawn!" vibe, per Dave George of the Palm Beach Post.
"I don't want to be on the market at all," Wade said. "I'm not curious at all. I want to get to it [with the Heat]. I want to be able to sign my deal and move on and not have to deal with any rumors, any free agency, any this, any that. This is where I want to end my career. So we'll figure it out."
Some assume Wade will take a drastic pay cut to remain with the Miami Heat and afford team president Pat Riley additional flexibility. Others, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, think he'll sign another pricey one-year deal, only to go through the pay-cut motions next summer.
Either way you slice it, Wade is both irreplaceable and off the market.
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
2 of 6
Age at Start of 2016-17: 27
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, 42.6 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $13,125,306
There is no way for the Charlotte Hornets to paint the 2016 offseason as a success without re-signing Nicolas Batum.
Max offers are coming his way, which can, and should, be unsettling for his incumbent franchise. He has never been named to an All-Star roster or All-NBA team, but he is nevertheless a max player in this summer's cap climate.
Charlotte knew this when trading for him last July ahead of his contract year, and it still forfeited a top-10 prospect in Noah Vonleh to get him. You don't place a $1,000 bet at the roulette table and then walk away before the wheel stops spinning; the Hornets cannot justify bidding farewell to Batum without ample compensation.
The evidence is in France's hope that Batum can still participate in FIBA's Olympic Qualifying Tournament, per FIBA.com:
"Batum's agent had previously indicated that his client, a free agent who just had a terrific first season with the Charlotte Hornets, would be in the United States resolving his NBA future and that the paperwork would not be finalized in time for him to play.
However, it is understood that the French player and the Hornets will quickly agree terms on a new deal and that could give France enough time to obtain insurance for Batum and allow him to take part in some of the OQT games.
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The Hornets don't have another player on the roster with Batum's two-way tools. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can replace everything Batum does on defense, but head coach Steve Clifford's new space-driven offensive model will crumble without his lone point forward.
Only one other player this past season matched or surpassed Batum's rebound (9.6), assist (26.9), steal (1.3), block (1.4) and three-point (34.8) percentages: Draymond Green. The Golden State Warriors didn't dare lose him last summer, just as the Hornets have no business entertaining Batum's departure now.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
3 of 6
Age at Start of 2016-17: 23
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 44.9 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $5,694,674
Bradley Beal isn't shy about his market value, per the Washington Post's Jorge Castillo:
"I want to be valued the right way. I feel like I'm a max player and that's what I'm looking for. If Washington can't meet that requirement then I may be thinking elsewhere. I'm pretty sure that they probably won't [let me go]. At the end of the day, that's where I want to be. I think a deal will probably get done but you just never know.
"
Beal isn't worth a max contract. Yet.
Almost 28 percent of his looks in 2015-16 came from that no-no area of mid-range jumpers, where he shot just 36.3 percent. Both numbers are an improvement from 2014-15, but the volume borders on unacceptable. He has also never posted an above-average defensive box plus-minus (DBPM), which shows how much better per 100 possessions the average defensive team is with a given player on the floor.
In the end, though, none of this matters. The Washington Wizards cannot play hardball. They cannot try to broker a hometown discount.
According to Spotrac, Beal's cap hit is $14.2 million until he signs his next deal—well below his first-year salary under a max contract. If the Wizards want him to sit tight, refusing all outside offer sheets, until they unsuccessfully pitch Kevin Durant chase other free agents, they must promise him that max deal.
Except for the mostly extinct sign-and-trade route, letting him walk for nothing is the only alternative. The Wizards won't find someone to supplant him with the resulting cap space. Second-option scorers with Beal's three-point touch aren't available in excess—or likely at all.
Just three other players are averaging at least 16 points per game while shooting better than 39 percent from the outside since Beal entered the league in 2012-13: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.
Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
4 of 6
Age at Start of 2016-17: 29
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 42.2 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $9,388,426
How utterly irreplaceable is Mike Conley to the Memphis Grizzlies? He's so invaluable that new head coach David Fizdale has decided the last thing his free-agent-to-be needs is breathing room, per the Commercial Appeal's Tom Schad:
"I've spoken to Mike Conley. We had a fantastic conversation, a very energized, open conversation and an honest conversation. He's going to get sick of me, because I'm going to follow him. I'm going to just follow him everywhere he goes. I'm going to hound him and teach him and collaborate with him and make him feel a part of this thing in a way that only a guy like D-Wade can feel, in Miami. That's my approach with him. I see him being a big part of this thing for a long time.
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Fizdale gets it. Losing Conley, who won't lack max-contract overtures, is a disaster scenario for the Grizzlies. Fizdale will get creative with Memphis' offense regardless, and the Grizzlies can run things through Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. But no one will save a Conley-less offense from collapse.
Just look at what's happened to the Grizzlies' points-piling machine over the last five seasons when he's off the hardwood. When Conley is in the game, the Grizzlies play like a top-10 offense, spacing warts and all. When he sits, they're a bottom-five garbage heap:
It doesn't matter that he's never been an All-Star. Or that he's working his way back from an Achilles injury. Or that he will (most likely) cost more than Gasol. The Grizzlies must do everything necessary to ensure Conley never thinks about signing anywhere other than Memphis.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
5 of 6
Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.2 blocks, 50.5 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $20,158,622
This is one of those "duh" moments we talked about. Kevin Durant remains a top-five player. Of course the Oklahoma City Thunder cannot lose him.
Fortunately for them, many expect Durant to sign a one-plus-one deal with a player option for 2017 that allows him to re-explore free agency with Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately for them, that theory isn't airtight, as The Ringer's Bill Simmons so eloquently explained:
"Everyone believes that Durant will sign a two-year extension with an opt-out clause that will kick in next summer; that's when the NBA’s salary cap climbs to Star Wars–budget levels. But Durant also broke his foot two seasons ago, returned too quickly and underwent two more surgeries on that same foot. He looked healthy last season, but given the NBA's history of stars and feet, you have to admit, signing a short-term deal feels risky even if he has a completed max contract and a mammoth Nike deal to cushion him.
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Durant's possible desire for an immediate long-term pact may favor the Thunder. But it also increases the likelihood he leaves, since he'll be making the big-picture decision this summer rather than in 2017. Hence the urgency.
The 2013-14 MVP is unfathomably efficient. He just wrapped up his sixth season of averaging at least 25 points per game with a true shooting percentage—the combined measurement of two-point, three-point and free-throw efficiency—of 60. No other player in NBA history has as many such seasons to his name. Adrian Dantley did the same five times; Charles Barkley, Michael Jordan and LeBron James have four of those efforts on their resumes.
But Westbrook obliterated Durant in MVP voting this year. That doesn't imply the Thunder can survive with just Westbrook, but it does suggest the point guard has become more valuable than his running mate...when he hasn't.
Take a gander at how Oklahoma City performed this season with just one of its two superhumans on the court, courtesy of NBAWowy.com (note the points per possession have been multiplied by 100 to reflect offensive and defensive ratings):
| Thunder in 2015-16 | ||||
| Durant, no Westbrook | 488 | 115.7 | 107.0 | 8.7 |
| Westbrook, no Durant | 662 | 112.0 | 106.6 | 5.4 |
Even if you account for Westbrook's additional 174 minutes of solo time, this is no contest. Durant is the Thunder's MVP, and they can only hope to lock him up, lest their title window shut swiftly and indefinitely.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 6
Age at Start of 2016-17: 31
Free-Agency Type: Player option
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, 52 percent shooting
2015-16 Salary: $22,970,500
Welcome to "Duh Moment, Part II: Return of the Duh."
LeBron James could be stashed with the "can't lose, won't lose" crowd. But while his return seems like a formality, he has structured his deals with the Cleveland Cavaliers so that he has a perpetual out.
"These were the terms LeBron wanted: a two-year deal with a player option on the second year to maintain maximum flexibility and leverage," ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne recently wrote of James' return to Cleveland. "If he kept signing one-and-ones, becoming a free agent each summer in the process, the Cavs' feet would always be at the fire. The balance of power would be in LeBron's favor."
James still holds all the power, but he is also 31 years old. If the Cavaliers, as expected, don't upset the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, he may demand wholesale changes—specifically the dissolution of Cleveland's current Big Three.
If you're the Cavaliers and this request comes from anyone other than James, do you really consider dealing one or both of Kyrie Irving, 24, and Kevin Love, 27, to maximize the ebbing title window of an aging star? Absolutely not. But this hypothetical solicitation is coming from James. Above all else, he remains more valuable to Cleveland than Irving and Love put together.
Consider the Cavaliers' performance with just James since his return versus their results when Irving and Love play without him, according to NBAWowy.com:
| James, no Irving or Love | 1265 | 110.5 | 101.1 | 9.4 |
| Irving and Love, no James | 790 | 107.7 | 109.3 | -1.6 |
That. Is. Absurd.
Maybe the Cavaliers have awarded James too much power. But that's because they need him now just as much, if not more, than they did in 2010, when he first left Cleveland. If his first exit taught them anything, it's that, no matter what, they better not give him any reason to leave again.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
