Why England Stand Their Best Chance of Major Tournament Glory in a Decade

It can be difficult to gauge just how fair a chance England stand of winning any given major tournament. Whether it be the European Championship or the World Cup, hyperbole and pessimism warps judgement in equal measure. On the basis of preemptive predictions, the Three Lions are either winners-in-waiting or group-stage flops-to-be.

This time is different, though. Nobody, not even Roy Hodgson, is certain of how England will fare at this summer's European Championship. Some think they are genuine contenders, plotting their route all the way to the final, while others believe they will fall without so much as a whimper.

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The hyperbole that once came with every Euros or World Cup is no longer so bullish. The English press even found grounds for praise in the event of England's group-stage exit two years ago in Brazil, and Hodgson held on to his job. His predecessors wouldn't have been afforded the same leniency.

But perhaps more should be expected of England at Euro 2016. They might not be able to count themselves among the front-runners, but they should be considered a rather swift dark horse in the race.

Nearly 50 years have passed since England last lifted major tournament silverware. But rather than keeping company with the bona fide elites of the international game—such as Germany, Italy and Spain—they are fallen giants of the sport—such as Uruguay and Hungary.

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In 20 years of competitive football, England have made the semi-finals of a major tournament just once. The last time the country's national team made it far enough to place one foot in the final of a competition was Euro 1996, and English footballers still suffer from penalty-shootout jitters every time they are confronted with one in the latter rounds. The Three Lions can only claim to have regressed in the two decades since.

Their performances at the 2014 and 2010 World Cups were decidedly insipid, their display at the 2012 European Championship not much better. England's recent track record makes for grim reading and supports those who predict Hodgson's team will suffer a far-from-glorious fate in France this summer.

However, this England team is very different from the one that failed in Brazil, or Poland and Ukraine, or South Africa. Hodgson's side crossed the Channel with a contrasting philosophy to the one that saw them flop so badly at major tournaments over the past decade. The England boss looks to have embraced his team's attacking identity.

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England have forged a personality for themselves as one of the most inherently potent sides in the European game. In Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy, the Three Lions have significant bite heading into Euro 2016, with the likes of Dele Alli and Wayne Rooney also following an upward trajectory into the tournament after impressive closes to the season.

It's for this reason that England stand their best chance of success at a major tournament in a decade. The 2006 World Cup marked the last time the Three Lions could claim a genuine chance of triumph; their prospects have been on the wane since then. Until now, that is.

With reigning world champions Germany and defending European champions Spain in transition, the window is open for an outsider to pass through. England could be that outsider, with Hodgson's side expected to make the knockout stages of the competition. Another group-stage exit won't be tolerated. This England side is capable of much, much more.

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Hodgson is now charged with harnessing his team's potential ahead of Saturday's opener against Russia at the Stade Velodrome.

A teamsheet "inadvertently leaked" by assistant coach Ray Lewington, as per Mark Critchley of the Independent, suggests England will opt to field Kane and Vardy as a flat-front two against Russia, with Raheem Sterling on the left wing and Rooney in a central-midfield role—like the one he performed for Manchester United in the latter part of the past season.

However, according to another report, Rooney's place in the starting lineup is under threat, with Hodgson set to scrap the diamond formation that has been maligned over the past few weeks, as per Dave Kidd of the Mirror. The England boss, it would seem, is struggling to fit all his attacking threats into the one outfit.

As James Milner told Matt Law of the Telegraph:

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What I've learned more than anything is: Do not lose your first game, whatever happens.

It's great to win it and get off to a flying start, but if you can't get that win, make sure you are solid and don't concede late on looking for the winner.

Make sure you get a solid start, at least a draw, because as soon as you lose that first game in a three-game group, you put yourselves under pressure straight away. That's the biggest thing.

We'll go out there and try to win, but if we're solid and make sure you at least get a point, that gives you a base.

We've got to be relaxed and taking one game at a time, rather than worrying about what's going on elsewhere—just concentrate on each game.

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Milner is right, to a certain extent. Defeat to Russia would cripple England's chances of success at Euro 2016. However, a victory could set them on course for a triumph unprecedented in modern times, with the prospect of momentum building from the group stage onwards. Hodgson has the players to maintain a credible charge.

England's best chances of major tournament glory appear to come in cycles of 10 years. They were contenders in 1996 and should have done better at the 2006 World Cup. Now, another decade later, Hodgson's side are ready to take up the baton. English football no longer shouts about its chances for all to hear, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't believe in them.