2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of Cal's Tyrone Wallace
Tyrone Wallace is a jump shot away from getting selected early in the second round or maybe sneaking into the first round of the NBA draft.
| Age | 21 (Born June 10, 1994) |
| College | Cal |
| Height | 6'5" |
| Weight | 205 |
Wallace has tools that entice NBA teams—size for his position, length and scoring instincts—but the unfortunate truth is that he's a poor shooter. That could keep him from getting picked.
That's a tough reality for a player who was the most productive scorer on California's roster and could watch two of his teammates eventually go in the lottery—Jaylen Brown is a projected lottery pick this year and Ivan Rabb is expected to go in that range in 2017.
Relevant Stats
| 2015-16 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 44.0 | 29.8 | 64.9 | 104.0 |
| 2014-15 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 42.5 | 31.8 | 60.6 | 95.1 |
| 2013-14 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 43.0 | 32.1 | 62.5 | 103.9 |
| 2012-13 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 34.2 | 22.4 | 53.4 | 86.9 |
Wallace's shooting regression is troubling: He made a career-high 1.2 threes per game as a sophomore, and that number fell to 0.9 threes per game as a senior.
His free-throw numbers also suggest he's just not much of a shooter. To his credit, he did make a tick higher this past season, but 64.9 percent is low for a player who gets to the line often (5.5 attempts per game in 2015-16).
NBA teams who value advanced statistics could be scared away by Wallace's offensive rating, which is a measure of a player's efficiency. This past season, he had one of the lowest offensive ratings among college guards getting draft consideration.
| Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall | 102.2 |
| Daniel Hamilton, UConn | 102.5 |
| Kris Dunn, Providence | 103.6 |
| Tyrone Wallace, Cal | 104.0 |
Strengths
Wallace may lack a jumper, but he was still able to consistently score the ball at Cal. That's because the man knew how to get his feet wet in the paint.
Few players in the country were better at finding a way into the lane to either create for themselves or others. Wallace is slithery with the ball in his hands. He's not super-quick, but he changes speed and direction well, and his ability to attack with either hand allows him to keep the defense guessing.
Wallace's game gets unconventional once he's in the paint.
He's a lefty who typically shoots his floaters with his right hand. He can also shoot runners and layups with either hand comfortably. His size helps him get those shots off and also helps him see over the defense to find an open teammate when help comes. He's not an elite passer, but he's capable of distributing when the defense cuts off his scoring chances.
Defensively, Wallace's size and length come in handy. His wingspan measured in at 6'9 ½" at the Nike Skills Academy (via DraftExpress) last summer, and he's effective at using his long reach to contest shots and recover when he's a step behind on defense.
Playing under Cuonzo Martin, a defense-first coach, has helped. He has been well schooled with his footwork and awareness away from the ball.
Weaknesses
Shooting, shooting, shooting...
Any debate about Wallace's chances in the NBA will continue to come back to that (lack of a) jumper.
Wallace looks capable at times from the perimeter. He had five regular-season games over the last two years when he made three treys.
There's a smoothness to the way he moves, and sometimes that creeps into his jumper. When he's confident, on balance and his mechanics are right, he's a capable shooter. But his mechanics are inconsistent, and that tends to happen when you've had career-long struggles.
Athleticism concerns also temper Wallace's draft stock. He's not explosive like his teammate, Brown, who has similar question marks with his jumper but is a next-level athlete. That often convinces NBA teams to bet on a guy's potential.
Brown also has age on his side. Since he's a one-and-done prospect, there's hope he can develop a jumper. While it's not fair to say Wallace has no chance, there are four years of data working against him.
NBA Player Comparison
Delon Wright and Michael Carter-Williams are two other current, tall NBA point guards who struggle to shoot from the perimeter. You could also throw Shaun Livingston, a career 19 percent three-point shooter, into that group, although he has evolved into an excellent mid-range shooter.
All three of those guards were considered much better passers and distributors when they were prospects. That part of the game is something that is typically innate. Wallace is a capable passer, but he's more of a natural scorer.
He has the size to play shooting guard or even small forward, but it's hard to see him making it as a wing in the league because of his shooting woes.
Best-Case Scenario
There are some similarities between Wallace's game and former Kansas wing Keith Langford, who has played only two career NBA games but has had a very successful run overseas.
Like Wallace, the lefty slashes and scores a lot. He has attracted NBA interest because he's a professional scorer. According to basketball reporter David Pick, Langford has had at least one chance to get an NBA contract, but he chose to stay overseas.
Wallace's best shot at making it is getting picked up by a team that similarly appreciates his ability to score and believes he's worth a bench spot. The fact he has potential as a defender in addition to his scoring should work in his favor.
Worst-Case scenario
The Langford example is one that shows how difficult it is to get a shot in the NBA. His numbers at Kansas were similar to the production Wallace had at Cal, and Langford played on a more successful team.
Working in Langford's favor, he improved his jumper to go along with his slashing ability as his professional career progressed. He was a better shooter at Kansas than Wallace was at Cal, but that was never his strength. The most threes he ever made in college was 38 as a junior, which is lower than Wallace's best season total (43).
So, Wallace is in a similar boat—he's likely going to have to prove himself elsewhere before he gets a real chance in the NBA.
Prediction
Wallace is going to be battling for one of the final spots in the draft and then one of the last bench spots on whatever team drafts him or picks him up in the NBA Summer League. His fate next season, whether he's drafted or not, could be determined by how well he plays and shoots it this summer.
But like Langford, do not write off Wallace if he's not playing in the league next year. He's got some craftiness that is not easy to find. He may not be an NBA player today, but that could change in a few years.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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