Predicting the Biggest 1st-Round Steals of the 2016 NBA Draft
Every year, we see mid-to-late first-round picks emerge as valuable NBA players.
The Indiana Pacers and Phoenix Suns may have landed long-term starters and potential stars last year—without top-10 selections.
Who will be the Myles Turners and Devin Bookers of 2016?
Whether it's due to physical questions, production concerns, age or skill development, the following prospects won't draw top-10 interest. Instead, they'll make a few general managers with picks in the teens and 20s look brilliant.
Team fit will play a big role in each prospect's transition to the NBA, but if the following players land in suitable spots, expect their careers to take off.
Cheick Diallo (Kansas, PF/C, Freshman)
Projected Draft Range: Mid-to-late first round
Reasonable Potential Suitors: Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Clippers
Having averaged three points in 7.5 minutes per game, Diallo won't generate much interest from lottery teams. He barely played and didn't look too polished when he did.
But Diallo got off to a late start after the NCAA ruled him ineligible for the first five games. He then had some trouble catching on to coach Bill Self's high-low offense, and with a veteran team winning games, Self had no reason to force the freshman's playing time.
Diallo's performance at the NBA Scouting Combine was ultimately a reminder of what he's capable of adding in a more free-flowing setting.
Exciting athleticism and a ridiculous 7'4 ½" wingspan are perfect for Diallo's particular game, which revolves around off-ball activity at the rim. Regardless of how little his skills develop, that mix of length, bounce, motor and a nose for the ball will lead to out-of-area rebounds, easy buckets and blocked shots. Fearless around the basket, he plays with tremendous effort, passion and confidence.
At the very least, a team lands an energizer capable of making plays without needing them to be run for him. But in time, Diallo should be capable of adding more to his game at both ends; He has a smooth enough mid-range stroke and fantastic defensive tools, specifically long arms and mobile feet.
Watch him get picked between 15th and 30th overall and emerge as an impact player by the end of his rookie deal.
DeAndre' Bembry (Saint Joseph's, SG/SF, Junior)
Projected Draft Range: Mid-to-late first round
Reasonable Potential Suitors: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns
Poor college shooting percentages will be the cause of draft-night robbery.
Lottery teams aren't likely to consider Bembry after seeing his three-point clip fall to 26.6 percent from 32.7 percent. There just aren't many cases of successful NBA guards or wings who aren't threatening shooters. On the other hand, if there is one thing we know about player development, it's that shooting can improve.
In the meantime, Bembry does enough of everything else to stay afloat early in his career.
The NBA's up-and-down game should suit him well. An explosive athlete and easy-bucket weapon in transition, Bembry also adds half-court value, even if his jumper isn't working. He's a strong passer and ball-screen facilitator whose feel for the game translates to high-IQ assists (4.5 per game last season).
As a scorer, Bembry's athleticism ignites drives and slashes through open lanes. He's also a mid-range shot-maker off screens and post-ups. For what it's worth, he seems to have the right approach heading into his rookie season.
"I don't have a problem with being a role player," Bembry told Bleacher Report in May. "A lot of guys feel like they're not role players, and they have to get shots up all the time. I'm more of a team guy. I feel like I can get my teammates better around me."
Bembry has too many good things going for him to let one correctable weakness hold him down. He hit 120 three-pointers during his three years at Saint Joseph's. Since he's clearly capable from outside, there's a chance his shooting consistency improves and his versatility sparks NBA success.
Furkan Korkmaz (Turkey, SG/SF, 1997)
Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to mid-first round
Reasonable Potential Suitors: Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies
Teams will only reach so high for Korkmaz, who's just 18 years old and averaging a whopping 4.4 points between Euroleague and the Turkish League, per RealGM. It makes more sense to draft-and-stash him with his Turkish club Anadolu Efes.
Korkmaz has a bright NBA future either way, and a mid-first-round team will eventually be rewarded for its patience. He possesses an NBA-friendly blend of bouncy athleticism and lethal shooting, creating highlights in transition with the ability to sky above the rim.
His jumper also has an impressive three-point resume, having connected on at least 40 percent of his triples during three of four FIBA championship tournaments dating back to 2013. He's also shot at least 40 percent on three-pointers during each of his last two seasons with Anadolu Efes.
More than just a spot-up threat and fast-break weapon, Korkmaz has flashed pull-up and step-back scoring potential as well as a high basketball IQ (1.5 turnovers per 40 minutes in 2015-16). He's a future NBA player with a valuable signature skill, and he'll only cost a pick in the teens or 20s of a weak draft.
It will take a few years to confirm, but Korkmaz will eventually be viewed as a steal from 2016.
Malik Beasley (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
Projected Draft Range: Mid-to-late first round
Reasonable Potential Suitors: Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets
Lack of traditional size (6'4 ½") and meaningful games played work against Beasley's NBA draft stock. He also isn't a big playmaker or shot-creator, which may suggest to some that his upside isn't great. I project he'll go somewhere in the 15-30 range, where he'll offer terrific value at the shallow 2-guard position.
Beasley compensates for the inch or two he lacks in height and length with showtime explosiveness, effort and a sweet shooting stroke for a 19-year-old freshman.
His jumper (38.7 percent from three, 58.3 percent true shooting percentage) and high-flying athleticism form a convincing one-two punch. But he also has a strong feel for scoring within his team's offense, a strength that will expedite his transition to the pros.
Beasley picks his spots well, having averaged 15.6 points on just 11.6 shots with a modest 24.3 percent usage rate. While most of his offense early on will likely come on spot-ups, fast breaks and line drives, he's flashed the potential to improvise and convert short pull-ups and floaters before traffic at the rim.
Though he still lacks discipline, there's potential here for Beasley to be a future defensive asset. With quick feet and a live motor, the tools and drive are there. He has a high basement floor and plenty of room for growth. A low-risk, high-reward draft option, he'll provide a team in the 20s with late-lottery value.
Honorable Mention 2nd-Round Steal: Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia, SG, Senior)
Projected Draft Range: Early second round
Reasonable Potential Suitors: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks
The ACC Player of the Year, Brogdon was one of college basketball's most well-regarded stars in 2016. He won't go high in the draft, though.
Brogdon fails the NBA guard eye test without great speed, explosiveness or bounce. At 23 years old, he lacks visible room for growth and the upside teams traditionally covet in the draft. This is all great news for one lucky general manager selecting in the 30-45 range—especially if he's already built a roster with established talent for Brogdon to support.
He compensates for limited bounce with maximum IQ and toughness; Though talent gets prospects bigger rookie contracts, it's Brogdon's intangibles that should help him carve out a long-term NBA career. He's a highly advanced defender strong enough to lock up 2s.
Brogdon also finished with the fastest NBA combine shuttle run time, a drill that tests reaction and change of direction. His versatility and ability to read offenses could help him earn early rookie minutes.
Brogdon doesn't project as a volume stat guy, but his passing, shot-making and decision-making scream NBA role player. This past year, he turned the ball over just 1.6 times per 40 minutes despite sporting a relatively heavy 28.4 percent usage rate. He shot 39.1 percent from three and at least 87 percent from the line for the third straight season.
He's the ideal target for a veteran team with scorers and playmakers who can allow him to play within himself.
General managers aren't looking for stars in the second round. Landing a rotation player after No. 30 is considered a success. Look for a playoff squad to scoop Brogdon in Round 2 and wind up with an efficient, dependable role player.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
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