Canadian Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Montreal Race
The seventh round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Canadian Grand Prix, where Lewis Hamilton is set to continue his pursuit of Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg.
Rosberg established a comfortable early lead in the drivers' standings after winning each of the first four races, but after the pair collided on the opening lap of the Spanish GP, Hamilton registered his first victory in seven months in Monaco.
Forty-three points adrift of his title rival ahead of the Monte Carlo race, Hamilton is now just 24 points behind as he arrives in Montreal's Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, where he has won on four occasions in the past.
With a look at how Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo might respond to his defeat in Monaco, Toro Rosso's prospects at a power-dependent track, more misery for Renault's Jolyon Palmer and a glimmer of hope for Manor, here are five predictions for Canada.
Lewis Hamilton Will Win After Shoving Nico Rosberg Wide at Turn 1
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As the rain fell on the tight and twisty streets, stripping away circumstances and leaving the drivers to feel their way through a 78-lap race in the most challenging conditions imaginable, it felt as though normal service was finally resumed at Mercedes during the Monaco Grand Prix.
While Lewis Hamilton walked on water to secure a timely first win of 2016, Nico Rosberg was content in his comfort zone on a day the extra risk wasn't worth the reward.
Yet the championship leader's damage-limitation exercise—which even saw him gift second place to his title rival in the early stages—backfired spectacularly, with Rosberg finishing almost a lap down and losing sixth place to Force India's Nico Hulkenberg on the final lap.
Arriving in Canada—a place where Hamilton normally excels—with his points advantage sliced to just 24, the pressure is suddenly back on.
Although both Red Bull drivers will compete with Renault's updated power unit in Canada and Ferrari—as reported by Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble—are set to bring an upgrade of their own, Mercedes should remain the team to beat at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
And provided Hamilton's car remains in one piece, and Rosberg is up for the fight this time, we should be treated to a head-to-head battle between the Silver Arrows in qualifying and the race for the first time since their collision in Spain.
Given the nature of the track, it is surprising we don't see more start-line incidents in Canada, where the main straight kinks to the right before the slow, left-right sequence of Turns 1 and 2.
After Hamilton eases to a fourth pole position of the season, we reckon Rosberg will try his luck around the outside of Turn 1 only for the three-time world champion to deal with the German in the same way he swatted Fernando Alonso's attempt to pass him at the start of the 2007 race.
Wary of hitting his team-mate for a second time in three grands prix, Rosberg will pull out of the move, take to the run-off area and rejoin on the exit of Turn 2, losing a handful of positions in the process and allowing Hamilton to claim another psychological victory and a fifth win at Montreal.
Daniel Ricciardo Will Retire After Clouting the Wall of Champions
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Daniel Ricciardo's response to his defeat in the Spanish Grand Prix, where Red Bull's switch to a three-stop strategy dropped him from race-winning contention to a distant fourth-place finish, was deeply impressive.
Rather than carrying that pain into Monaco, a race the team had long identified as one they could win on merit due to the slow-speed performance of the RB12 chassis, Ricciardo channeled that frustration into controlled aggression.
He drove with more commitment than ever before. He shuffled as close to the barriers as he dared and then—as he told the post-qualifying FIA press conference—got even closer.
And, as well as securing his maiden pole position, he produced the best performance of his F1 career to date.
That was why Ricciardo—despite complaining his side of the garage "threw the win away" in Spain, per Motorsport.com's Darshan Chokhani—told the official F1 website he believed he "took Barcelona as well as [he] could."
But after missing out on another victory through no fault of his own in Monte Carlo, where a slow pit stop gifted the win to Lewis Hamilton, there is a risk that Ricciardo will try a little too hard in his desperation to make up for those missed opportunities.
Although the long straights of Canada will offer Red Bull a better indication of how Renault's upgraded power unit will affect their status in the competitive order, it is likely the team will continue to lurk some distance behind Mercedes—encouraging the drivers to make a difference on the track.
At the place where he claimed his first victory two years ago, Ricciardo will get it wrong over the kerbs of the final chicane, lose control and become the latest victim of the Wall of Champions.
Both Toro Rosso Drivers Will Be Eliminated from Q1
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Competing with year-old Ferrari engines, there was a large emphasis on Toro Rosso to score strong points in the early months of the 2016 season.
Although the Red Bull B-team have registered two top-six finishes in the opening six races and are on course for their best championship finish since 2008, there is an inescapable feeling they have, if anything, slightly underachieved thus far.
With 30 points, Toro Rosso are seven points adrift of fifth-placed Force India and just six ahead of McLaren-Honda, with the brand-new Haas team a further two points back.
While their closest rivals will all benefit from in-season engine development, Toro Rosso—whose powertrain was already identified by Mercedes' Paddy Lowe as the weakest on the grid in April, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson—are likely to slide down the pecking order as the year progresses.
And the team may get an initial glimpse of what is to come on the high-speed stretches of Canada, where most engine manufacturers will introduce significant improvements.
After Daniel Ricciardo and Kevin Magnussen raced the new Renault engine for the first time in Monaco, Max Verstappen and Jolyon Palmer will receive the unit in time for Canada, while Ferrari are, as previously mentioned, set to bring more updates to Montreal.
As reported by Autosport's Lawrence Barretto, meanwhile, Honda will "leave it as late as possible" to decide whether to fast-track an internal-combustion upgrade to the seventh round of the season.
Should all those changes prove to be immediately successful, Carlos Sainz Jr. and Daniil Kvyat may struggle to progress from the first segment of qualifying.
And the Toro Rosso management will be even more relieved to have secured a deal to revert to current-specification Renault power for 2017 and '18.
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Jolyon Palmer's Misery Will Continue with Accidents on All 3 Days
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After struggling to adjust to the demands of Monaco, where drivers must play dare with the barriers in order to find the bulk of their lap times, Jolyon Palmer will hardly relish a trip to a circuit lined with cold, hard, unforgiving concrete walls.
Twice a winner in Monte Carlo in the GP2 feeder series, the British driver crashed on all three days of on-track action at the principality, ending the most degrading weekend of his racing career with a heavy shunt on the pit straight a matter of metres into the race.
After the grand prix, Palmer—still without a point after the opening six events—insisted he doesn't "feel under pressure" at Renault amid growing speculation that he could be replaced by reserve driver Esteban Ocon in the near future, per Crash.net's Ollie Barstow.
But he admitted he has "probably been pushing a little bit too hard too soon in sessions and trying to make up through different corners where there's not enough to be gained really," suggesting it is easy to overdrive "when you know the guy in the other car has got two-tenths on you without doing anything extra."
That, of course, was a reference to the upgraded power unit team-mate Kevin Magnussen raced for the first time in Monaco, which offered the Dane an instant performance advantage.
With only one new unit made available at the last race, Palmer will finally run the engine in Canada, and it is possible a significant horsepower boost will take him closer to the points than at any stage since his 11th-placed finish on debut in Australia.
But the key to Palmer's Canadian GP will be how he recovers from the shame of Monte Carlo and handles the mounting pressure surrounding his future.
Another crash-stained weekend will push him ever closer to the exit door.
Pascal Wehrlein Will Score a Point for Manor
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Ever since the team announced their switch to Mercedes power units last October, Manor have been counting down the days until the Canadian Grand Prix.
As the first genuine low-downforce track of 2016, the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve—with its several long straights and huge emphasis on fuel consumption—should offer the team their best chance of scoring points for the first time since the late Jules Bianchi's ninth-placed finish at Monaco 2014.
Following this season's Monaco GP, racing director Dave Ryan expressed his disappointment that Manor remain without a point after their winter makeover, telling Reuters' Alan Baldwin they are still "nowhere near quick enough" to consider themselves "a really solid midfield team."
There have been glimpses of progress—think Pascal Wehrlein's rocket start in Australia and his charge to the dizzy heights of 16th place in qualifying in Bahrain—but the back row of the grid remains reserved for the German and team-mate Rio Haryanto.
With fellow strugglers Sauber also yet to get off the mark (but ahead in the constructors' standings courtesy of Marcus Ericsson's 12th-place finishes in Bahrain and Spain), it is possible that, as in 2014, the fight for 10th place will be decided by a matter of points.
And we're backing Manor to strike first this weekend, when Wehrlein—the Mercedes-affiliated driver representing the Mercedes-affiliated team—takes advantage of the usual Canadian GP chaos to steal a point or two.
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