Why Mexico Should Be Your Dark Horse for the Copa America Centenario
On Wednesday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, Mexico and Chile met for a friendly in their final Copa America warm-up.
Mexico won 1-0, with a goal from birthday boy Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez nodded in late in the game to celebrate the date in the best way possible.
Even though it was a friendly, it demonstrated five clear reasons why El Tri are genuine contenders for the Copa Centenario.
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Firstly, the fact they won. Chile are the reigning champions, having won last year's edition on home soil.
How they play in the tournament will not be the same as in this game, particularly because the lineup was weakened, but Mexico showed their ability to ride out a storm. La Roja dominated the early stages before sucker-punching Chile late in the day with a wonderful break.
Over 68,000 fans attended the friendly, showing how well-supported Juan Carlos Osorio’s side will be in this tournament, given the millions of Mexicans living in the United States.
Unlike the Copa Centenario hosts, football is a key element of Mexican culture, and the fans will be passionate and present in droves. This is the second reason to back the North American giants.
"The Tri is probably the most important part of most men’s lives in Mexico," Osorio told the BBC World Service. That means there is pressure to succeed, but also unchecked desire.
Mexico play Uruguay in their first game in Phoenix. Celeste coach Oscar Washington Tabarez believes those fans could make a big difference, per ESPN:
"[Mexico] is always a difficult rival and in addition to that, the way I see it, it is going to be the home team, more so than the United States, and for that we are going to have a very interesting debut. Mexico is a North American power and in addition to that it has a great organization with powerful internal football process.
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The tournament looked for a long while as if it would be played in Mexico, until it was decided late on that the USA would host it. But no matter—the Mexicans will make it feel otherwise, as Tabarez pointed out.
The third reason is the goalscorer: Chicharito. The 28-year-old comes into the tournament off a wonderful season with Bayer Leverkusen, and given just 12 minutes off the bench against Chile, he found the winning goal.
He peeled away from the defence intelligently and arced his header into the top corner to send Mexico into the tournament with confidence.
The striker notched 26 goals for Leverkusen and, after years being a reserve for the likes of Manchester United and Real Madrid, is proving he has what it takes to cut it at the game’s top levels.
Fourthly, Hernandez’s presence, alongside the country’s other top stars, is a huge help. In Chile last year, they brought a reserve squad, with the star names reserved for the Gold Cup.
This time, Mexico are at virtually full strength, and several key players are in form. As well as Chicharito, Andres Guardado is enjoying a sublime moment.
He will play Mexico’s quarter-back role, fresh off a second consecutive title triumph with PSV Eindhoven in Holland. Guardado has matured from a wide player into a wonderful central midfielder, and his country may enjoy the fruits of his labour this summer.
Finally, the fifth reason Mexico enter the Copa Centenario as legitimate contenders is that their statistics under Osorio are spectacular.
They have seven wins in seven games under the new coach and have not yet shipped a single goal during his reign. It is the longest run in their history without letting in a goal, at 730 minutes unbeaten—the previous best was 722 minutes, set in 1971.
That will have to change this summer, but Mexico come into the tournament in fantastic form, with the wind filling their sails.
The last time Mexico tasted defeat was at last summer’s Copa America, a full 19 games ago, something no other side in international football can boast.
Since then, they have become Gold Cup champions and are running clear at the top of their Russia 2018 World Cup qualifying group, eight points clear of both Honduras and Canada. By contrast, the United States are second in theirs, three points behind Trinidad and Tobago.
There are further reasons to back El Tri. For one, their travel schedule is very friendly. They kick off against Uruguay on Sunday in Glendale, Arizona. Their second game sees them face Jamaica in Pasadena, Los Angeles, before heading to Houston, Texas, for the final group match, against Venezuela. A total travel distance of less than 2,000 miles.
Compare that to Uruguay, who start off facing Mexico in Arizona before being forced to fly over 2,300 miles north-east for their second game, against Venezuela. Then, in a further twist, they have to go more than 2,500 miles back west, to play against Jamaica in Santa Clara, California, close to 5,000 miles.
When games are so close together like at tournaments, these distances and the time spent travelling matters, not to mention Uruguay first losing and then gaining three hours because of their coast-to-coast trips.
Mexico are also in rude health going into the Copa America. There are no injury worries or problems. Luis Suarez, meanwhile, doesn’t seem like he will make Uruguay’s opening game after suffering a hamstring injury and has no set return date.
That’s the Celeste’s key player out for the match, which could decide which of Mexico or Uruguay tops the group and then potentially avoids Argentina in the next round.
Tata Martino’s side are still unsure if Lionel Messi will be available to play in their first match against Chile, while Brazil are in a state of disarray. Six members of Dunga’s squad have pulled out of the tournament because of injury, or in Luiz Gustavo’s case, personal reasons. And they don’t have their best player, Neymar, available either.
With none of the Copa’s traditional superpowers at their peak, Mexico will be looking to take advantage.
The clash with Uruguay at the Univeristy of Arizona stadium on Sunday is the biggest game of Osorio's tenure so far.
Most of the team is set in stone, although the goalkeeping situation is still yet to be decided. Guillermo Ochoa has been a reserve for Malaga, while Alfredo Talavera has earned far more minutes at Toluca, and also for the national side in key games under Osorio so far.
The other stopper is Cruz Azul's Jose de Jesus Corona, who is unlikely to start the tournament. The coach told ESPN:
"We selected a goalkeeper whose best skills are shown in the aerial game, another one who's great at shot-blocking, and another one who's in the middle ground.
[…]
We wanted to pick three goalkeepers with different characteristics, so we can have all the possibilities available for any given scenario.
[...]
There's no starting goalkeeper; all three of them have great possibilities of starting.
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Osorio believes his men can go all the way and lift the trophy. He spoke after the win against Chile, saying, per ESPN: "We arrive in a very good moment. With the talent and commitment of the players, combined with the strategy and the way they are carrying out the plans we have decided on, Mexico has a great chance."
The governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, and mayor of Phoenix, Greg Stanton, welcomed the Mexican national team to Arizona when they arrived on Friday at the state’s capital’s Sky Harbor Airport, smiling, posing for photos and shaking hands.
They might not be so happy when Mexico leave the States, especially if El Tri have the Copa America Centenario trophy in tow, which is a real possibility. Argentina will be the favourites, but beware the men in green.
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