NBA Mock Draft 2016: Predictions for Where Coveted 1st-Round Prospects Will Land
Nothing has truly changed since the college basketball season ended two months ago, but no NBA mock draft has since stayed the same.
Top recruits don't suddenly get better at basketball during a workout. Scouts have already watched and developed opinions on all the premier prospects. Some of the high-lottery teams may have a concrete plan in place for June 23.
Public perception, however, tilts as analysts fall in and out of love with certain guys, leading to more pundits following the herd and validating those beliefs. Inside information either reveals a team's thinking or fools everyone into buying a smokescreen.
Less than three weeks until the 2016 draft, let's take a look at where some of the most exciting future pros now stand.
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | F Ben Simmons, LSU |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | SF Brandon Ingram, Duke |
| 3. | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) | PF Dragan Bender, Croatia |
| 4. | Phoenix Suns | SF Jaylen Brown, California |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | SG Jamal Murray, Kentucky |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | SG Buddy Hield, Oklahoma |
| 7. | Denver Nuggets (via New York) | F Marquese Chriss, Washington |
| 8. | Sacramento Kings | PG Kris Dunn, Providence |
| 9. | Toronto Raptors (via Denver) | PF Henry Ellenson, Marquette |
| 10. | Milwaukee Bucks | C Jakob Poeltl, Utah |
| 11. | Orlando Magic | C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky |
| 12. | Utah Jazz | SG Denzel Valentine, Michigan State |
| 13. | Phoenix Suns (via Washington) | SG Timothe Luwawu, France |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State |
| 15. | Denver Nuggets (via Houston) | SG Furkan Korkmaz, Turkey |
| 16. | Boston Celtics (via Dallas) | PG Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame |
| 17. | Memphis Grizzlies | PG Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt |
| 18. | Detroit Pistons | PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga |
| 19. | Denver Nuggets (via Portland) | F Taurean Prince, Baylor |
| 20. | Indiana Pacers | G Tyler Ulis, Kentucky |
| 21. | Atlanta Hawks | C Damian Jones, Vanderbilt |
| 22. | Charlotte Hornets | C Ivica Zubac, Bosnia |
| 23. | Boston Celtics | C Ante Zizic, Cibona Zagreb |
| 24. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami) | SG Malik Beasley, Florida State |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | SF DeAndre Bembry, Saint Joseph's |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City) | PF Brice Johnson, North Carolina |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | G Dejounte Murray, Washington |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland) | C Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | F Juan Hernangomez, Spain |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | G Caris LeVert, Michigan |
Ben Simmons, F, LSU
The Ben Simmons-Brandon Ingram debate is running out of steam. Most mock drafts have retreated to the original consensus of the LSU forward going No. 1 overall.
Even if they're already covertly printing Simmons jerseys, the Philadelphia 76ers can't and won't make their intentions known until draft night. Yet according to Philadelphia Magazine's Derek Bodner, they're leaning the expected way:
Also increasing the likelihood of Philadelphia targeting Simmons, ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chad Ford reported the team's interest in shopping Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. Pairing those big men with another forward with a limited jumper would clutter the court.
The 76ers have spent years clamoring for a future superstar, and the Australian teenager has a boundless ceiling. Despite his shooting setbacks, he's an elite athlete who can run the court and thrive as a point forward.
He's not the perfect fit for their current roster, but Simmons is precisely the type of prospect a downtrodden franchise should want to build around. This is a guy downgraded from can't-miss star because he only averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game as a freshman.
Marquese Chriss, F, Washington
"Will Marquese Chriss be a lottery pick?" has quickly turned into "Will he get snagged in the top five?"
Every class features the quintessential predraft riser who excites the masses with freakish athleticism and mouth-watering upside. This year it's the 18-year-old forward, who soared to No. 3 in DraftExpress' latest mock draft.
If the Boston Celtics don't shoot for the stars with the third selection, the Phoenix Suns might with the ensuing choice, according to Ford.
"While we have generally pegged him in the No. 7-10 range, teams as high as the Suns at No. 4 are considering him," Ford wrote. "They need a stretch floor, and the other options (Dragan Bender, Henry Ellenson) don't have the athletic upside that Chriss does."
Per Sports-Reference.com, the 6'10" forward recorded a 21.7 player efficiency rating (PER) as a freshman for Washington while shooting 56.8 percent from two-point range. He also expressed confidence to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy in his ability to develop into a versatile defender.
“If I get stronger, I feel like I can guard fours and fives, and I believe I’m quick enough to guard threes and twos,” Chriss said. “I think I have a good skill set to stretch the floor. I wouldn’t characterize myself as having one natural spot, I just feel that I can play.”
CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie, on the other hand, labeled Chriss a poor rebounder who "has no idea how to defend at this stage." He cautioned teams to not get lost in the hype:
"Typically, this would be the profile of a post-lottery home run swing. However, in the weak 2016 NBA Draft, teams are considering him as early as No. 3 and it seems unlikely at this point that he'll fall out of the top 10. The potential is there for him to reach that ceiling. If he continues to develop in terms of his feel for the game as he keeps playing hoops, he has potential to reach all-star heights. But it's one heck of a risk at this stage to take him there given where his game is, and I'm not sure I'd want to be the one paying a top 10 pick hoping that potential turns into production.
"
Not afraid of making a bold gamble, the Denver Nuggets represent a reasonable compromise at pick No. 7.
Denzel Valentine, SG, Michigan State
As top-notch athletes like Chriss catapult up draft boards, guys like Denzel Valentine often get lost in the shuffle.
During his senior year at Michigan State, the shooting guard won Associated Press Player of the Year honors by registering 19.2 points, 7.8 assists and 7.5 rebounds per contest. His court acumen is apparent during games but not as much in scouting drills.
Without noteworthy size, speed or strength, some skeptics aren't sure what role he'll play in the Association. One personnel executive shared his doubts with the Sporting News' Sean Deveny:
"He is an impressive guy when you meet him, and he has a place in the league, but it’s hard to say where. Athleticism is his question mark. Can he help and recover on defense, contest shots? Can he keep up with quicker guards? You’d like to see him be able to guard three positions, but he’s 6-5 and there are a lot of big small forwards out there.
"
Deveny drew the common parallel to Draymond Green, another undersized Michigan State alum who has matured into an NBA All-Star. While Valentine will never offer the muscle to a lethal small-ball lineup, he can create offense for himself and others with above-average rebounding abilities.
He's best served as a mid-first-round selection for a solid squad not making much of the Green comparison. Despite barely missing the postseason, the Utah Jazz have a bright young core that could truly flourish with a point guard and another shooter or two. Valentine would provide needed guard depth off the bench to help lift them over the hump.
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