2016 NBA Draft: Breaking Down NBA Future of North Carolina's Brice Johnson
Nothing about Brice Johnson screamed NBA through his first three years at North Carolina.
There was potential, but you never got the impression it would amount to anything, given the limited progress he made from his freshman to junior season. An enormous senior year would ultimately change that perception.
A monster in the middle for a winning Tar Heels squad that reached the national title game, Johnson improved in every major statistical category and now looks much clearer under the NBA lens.
He'll have a real shot at going in the first round of the NBA draft following a breakout final year.
Relevant Stats
| PPG | RPG | APG | BPG | FG% | FT% | ORtg | Usage |
| 17.0 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | .614 | .783 | 130.2 | 25.0 |
Both productive and efficient, Johnson averaged a double-double while shooting 61.4 percent from the floor. Among first-round candidates, his 20.4 percent rebounding mark ranks only behind Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis' 20.7 percent, per Sports-Reference.com.
Johnson even raised his free-throw mark to 78.3 percent after finishing below 68 percent in each of his previous three seasons.
The only negatives tied to his stats are a low 5.5 percent block rate (2.1 per 40 minutes) and no career three-point makes or attempts, which highlights the fact he can't stretch the floor.
Strengths
Johnson's 38-inch max vertical is big time for a 6'10 ½" power forward or center. Between his bounce and coordination, he's an easy-bucket machine around the rim, where he shot an incredible 140-of-160 (87.5 percent), per Hoop-Math.com.
He does a ton off damage as a catch-and-finisher off lobs, rolls, dives and cuts to the hoop. Johnson also picks up a large number of second-chance points on the offensive glass, having converted an impressive 35 putbacks in 40 games.
A fiery presence under the boards, Johnson's nose for the ball and quickness off the ground led to volume rebounding numbers. He grabbed 23 at Florida State and 21 at Duke with a fully charged motor in 2015-16—he just looked more active and aggressive than in the past.
And though the majority of his offense was generated by athleticism and energy, we did see flashes of mid-range shooting and scoring around the key. He can hit the foul-line or short-corner jumper and connect on basic over-the-shoulder one-handers.
Weaknesses
Johnson's scoring versatility is limited. Though capable of making fallaways, he's not a particularly adept shot-creator out of the post.
He doesn't project as a one-on-one player or a big man that coaches will isolate with his back to the basket. At power forward, Johnson won't help with spacing, considering he's not a deep spot-up threat or someone who wanders far from the hoop.
At just 209 pounds, it's fair to question how effective he'll be down low at both ends of the floor. Without great strength or length (7'0 ¼" wingspan), Johnson doesn't project as an intimidating rim-protector or post defender. And he could have trouble staying with small-ball 4s around the perimeter.
Nowadays, teams like their bigs to stretch the floor or protect the basket. It's possible Johnson does neither.
Pro Comparison
Taj Gibson
Like Gibson, Johnson is another athletic big who can move between the 4 and 5 spots (based on matchups). Just as Gibson gives the Bulls interior activity and a pick-and-pop option, Johnson will have the chance to do the same in an energizer role.
These aren't go-to guys or difference-making defenders. Instead, they're valued for their high-percentage offense, quality shot selection and ability to keep plays alive.
Best-Case Scenario
Given his lack of strength, ball skills and defensive prowess for a four-year college player, Johnson's ceiling doesn't reflect starter potential. If he maxes out his talent, we're looking at a lively sixth man.
In a best-case scenario, he adds a reliable mid-range jumper and bulk en route to becoming a high-end, hustle-and-energy role player.
Worst-Case Scenario
Johnson's ceiling seems somewhat low, but his floor is high.
His athleticism and motor are bound to translate to dunks, second-chance points, transition offense and rebounding—even if he struggles adding to or sharpening his offensive game. At the very least, Johnson should be able to carve out a career for himself as a finishing target, cleanup man and fast-break weapon.
Prediction
Johnson's lack of obvious upside won't do him any favors on draft night. Lottery teams will look to take bigger home run swings on younger prospects.
However, Johnson's floor, which sits above ground level, suggests he's one of the safer bets in the 15-30 range. That's something a general manager could value in a draft with so much uncertainty.
I expect him to go somewhere in the mid-to-late first round and establish himself as an energetic, backup big for years to come.
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