
Duke Basketball: Predicting Blue Devils' Stat Leaders for 2016-17 Season
While Duke has talent going into next season, we don't know which players will emerge over the course of the year.
In all likelihood, the Blue Devils will be the No. 1 team in the country in November thanks to an elite recruiting class joining an already-established group of returning players. After reaching the Sweet 16 this past season, the squad has its sights much higher in 2016-17.
The problem is there are only so many minutes to go around, and these young stars will likely spend a lot of time battling for playing time, as well as shot attempts, rebounds and other chances to prove themselves. Even if they buy into the team-first atmosphere, not everyone will put up similar numbers throughout the season.
So which players will end up with the best stats at year's end? There will likely be different leaders in every game, but here are predictions for the main categories over the course of the season.
Points Per Game: Grayson Allen
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Other players on the roster might be bigger recruits and have more NBA potential, but Grayson Allen will be the most established player on the roster and should once again lead the team in points next season.
The guard was one of the best scorers in college basketball this past year, averaging 21.6 points per game while excelling with his outside shot (41.7 percent from three-point range). Even when the competition rose in ACC play, Allen continued to take care of business with 21.9 points per game.
Considering he averaged more points than any other returning player from a major conference, he could even be a contender for National Player of the Year.
However, a lack of alternatives outside of Brandon Ingram helped Allen's high scoring total. Allen will have to share the ball a lot more this season, which could lead to a reduced number of shot attempts and, in turn, fewer points.
Even if he is more efficient as he continues learning how to create his own shot, Allen will probably average about 17-18 points per game.
Assists Per Game: Frank Jackson
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Allen led the team in assists last season with 3.5 per game. Once again, however, this was due to a lack of options. Derryck Thornton was not ready to lead a team full time, and there were no other true point guards on the roster.
Frank Jackson isn't exactly a true point guard as a player who generally prefers to look for his own shot, but he has the necessary tools to take on the role during his freshman season.
Jackson has the size at 6'3" with the quickness and athleticism to get into the lane almost at will. Even if he has to improve his vision and playmaking skills, he will have enough opportunities with open teammates who will find ways to score.
While Allen, Matt Jones, Luke Kennard and even Jayson Tatum could spend time on the perimeter with the ball in their hands, Jackson will likely be the go-to option for Duke and should end up leading the team in assists, even if that is only about four per game.
Rebounds Per Game: Amile Jefferson
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This will be a tough competition with Harry Giles, Marques Bolden and Amile Jefferson all possibilities to start in the low post while Javin DeLaurier, Chase Jeter, Sean Obi and others also battle for playing time.
Giles and Bolden have tons of upside, and both have a chance to be great professionals. They are also advanced for their age (both are 18) and should be able to contribute early in their careers, assuming Giles is healthy in his return from a torn ACL.
However, Jefferson is not going to go away. The fifth-year senior averaged 11.4 points and 10.3 rebounds in nine games last season before missing the rest of the year with a foot injury. Still, this production was more than just a small sample size.
He has consistently been one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. On the offensive end, he has a career 14.4 percent rate, per Sports-Reference.com. For reference, this would have been in the top 30 of the country last season, according to KenPom.com, while his 17.7 percent rate last season would have been third overall.
The 6'9" center lacks the versatility of other big men, which might end up reducing his playing time a bit, but he should still get at least 25-30 minutes per game while averaging about seven to eight rebounds. This should be enough to lead the team.
Blocks Per Game: Marques Bolden
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Even if Giles is ready to play on day one, Duke might benefit from bringing him along slowly as to not reaggravate an injury. The 6'11" player will also likely spend more time at power forward thanks to his perimeter skills, which could take him away from the basket relatively often.
On the other hand, Bolden will play full minutes early and is a true center who can stay in the middle and be a major presence on the defensive end of the court. The 6'11", 250-pound freshman might actually be one of the best defensive big men the Blue Devils have had in a long time.
Along with great length and athleticism, Bolden also has good instincts and timing to block shots or at least alter anything close to the basket. This will cause problems for opponents in the paint and help upgrade the entire defense.
With the center's talent and likely heavy playing time, he could easily average about two blocks per game during his freshman season.
Steals Per Game: Frank Jackson
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Duke doesn't always feature the most aggressive defense, but guards such as Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones and Tyler Thornton have been able to rack up steals at various points in their careers. Allen led the team with 1.3 per game last year, but Jackson could take over with about 1.5 per game this upcoming season.
Not only does he have the athleticism necessary to defend top guards at the next level, but he also has impressive length for the position. According to DraftExpress, the 6'3" freshman measured with a 6'6 ¾" wingspan at the Nike Hoop Summit.
Jackson will be able to get his hands into passing lanes, take the ball and turn it into a quick fast break on the other end.
With Jones, Allen, Tatum and others also capable of averaging at least one steal per game, this Blue Devils defense could suddenly become a strength for next season.
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