Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Can Crash the NFL Playoffs in 2016
When it comes to NFL relevance, you can bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tired of theirs only coming once the on-field action ends and the draft projections begin.
The last time the Pewter Pirates made the playoffs? 2007.
The last time they won a playoff game? When they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy to close out the 2002 season.
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Tampa Bay is on its fourth head coach and third general manager in six seasons, which tells you all you need to know. Poor drafting, a pirate ship full of free-agent busts and the absence of a true franchise quarterback have left Bucs fans pining for the days of Derrick Brooks, Warren Sapp, Mike Alstott, John Lynch and Ronde Barber.
But out of the ashes of Lovie Smith's two-year, 8-24 stint running the ship, the Bucs have emerged as a sleeping giant ready to wreak havoc in 2016 and beyond.
Why can a 6-10 team with a first-time head coach and a second-year quarterback make a playoff run?
The Jameis Factor
There are two kinds of teams in the NFL: Those that have a legitimate franchise quarterback and a fighting chance at late-season games that matter, and those that don't.
Tampa Bay thought it might have had that in Josh Freeman, but his run ended as quickly as it began. After a failed one-season rental of veteran Josh McCown and a handful of starts from Mike Glennon, the Bucs sat at 2-14 with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Jameis Winston. Quarterback. Florida State.
From the moment he set foot inside Raymond James Stadium, Winston has transformed Tampa Bay's culture into one that mirrors the success and confidence he enjoyed as a Seminole, where he won a national title and a Heisman Trophy.
Winston became just the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in his rookie season, tossing 22 touchdowns and setting a new franchise record for quarterbacks with six scores on the ground.
This rookie's success came despite injuries that took two of his top three receivers—Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins—out for significant periods of time. Both are back, as is veteran Louis Murphy and promising sophomore Kenny Bell.
There are plenty of reasons to be excited about the young talent in Tampa Bay, but the team's playoff chances begin and end with No. 3.
Koetter Keeps Consistency on Offense
By promoting Dirk Koetter from offensive coordinator to head coach, Tampa Bay is preserving the positive momentum his unit built in 2015.
In his first season with the Bucs, Koetter called the shots for the most prolific and productive offense in Bucs history. He'll get the chance to build on that success in 2016 as the head honcho.
The worst thing for a young quarterback is a lack of stability, so keeping Koetter was key. Making changes on defense was vital, but equally so was the need to keep things moving in a positive direction on the other side of the ball.
Koetter retains play-calling duties, and his rapport with Winston is crucial.
Backfield Beasts
Nothing makes a young quarterback's life easier than a consistent, effective running game. Tampa Bay has just that in Doug Martin and Charles Sims.
Martin had gone from rookie Pro Bowler to banged-up question mark heading into the 2015 season, leading the team to decline his fifth-year option for 2016. The former first-rounder out of Boise State responded by rushing for 1,402 yards—second in the NFL—earning him a new five-year deal to remain the top dog in the Tampa Bay backfield.
Sims topped 1,000 total yards in just his second season and averaged 4.9 yards per touch. He was Tampa Bay's second-leading receiver on the year and was a frustrating assignment for opposing defenses worn down by Martin's more physical running style.
Chemistry in the Trenches
Much of the credit for Tampa Bay's dominant ground game goes to its offensive line, the team's most pleasantly surprising unit in 2015.
Despite an overhaul that featured four new starters—including two rookies—this group made impressive strides throughout the season and should improve even further after another offseason and training camp together.
Donovan Smith weathered the storm as a rookie left tackle from day one and held his own, while fellow 2015 second-round pick Ali Marpet was one of the best run-blocking guards in the league.
Veteran Joe Hawley established himself as a capable anchor in the middle at center, while underrated reserve Kevin Pamphile and free-agent addition J.R. Sweezy should help ease the loss of the retired Logan Mankins.
Demar Dotson and Gosder Cherilus will battle for the right tackle spot again, and both have plenty of starting experience.
This unit came together quickly in 2015, and the valuable experience they gained together last year should help them make a leap forward this season.
New Scheme, More Talent on Defense
Gone is the Cover 2-heavy scheme of the past two seasons under one Smith. It will be replaced by a more versatile scheme under a new Smith.
Once the head coach of a division rival, Mike Smith comes to Tampa Bay to take over a defense that failed to live up to high expectations over the past two seasons. His desire to run multiple fronts and coverages will be a welcome change for Bucs fans after watching a stagnant pass rush and soft secondary give up far too much yardage.
Mainstays like Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David will still be the foundational pieces of the unit, but this offseason brought plenty of fresh faces.
Free agent Robert Ayers and second-round pick Noah Spence will bolster the pass rush. In the secondary, hometown playmaker Vernon Hargreaves III joined the squad via the 11th overall pick in this year's draft, while veteran ball hawk Brent Grimes arrived through free agency. At linebacker, the battle-tested Daryl Smith returns to play for his former defensive coordinator from his time in Jacksonville.
From top to bottom, Tampa Bay will have a new look on defense in 2016.
The list doesn't stop there. From a No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans, who has posted over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, to a pair of division opponents—the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints—who appear to be seeing their playoff window close, stars are aligning for the Bucs.
2015 was all about laying a foundation for the future. General manager Jason Licht has done a fantastic job bringing in the right pieces, both in free agency and especially via the draft. Those bricks are now firmly in place in Tampa Bay, upon which playoff hopes are already being built.
Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the NFL draft for Bleacher Report. He also covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Scout. Follow him on Twitter @LukeEasterling.
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