UNC Basketball: Tar Heels' Biggest Reasons for Optimism in 2016-17

The 2016-17 season was supposed to be a down year for North Carolina, but all of a sudden, this is a team that should once again be one of the best in college basketball.

Despite losing key players such as Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, the Tar Heels won't be rebuilding as many initially anticipated. Instead, the squad that lost the national championship on a buzzer-beater will be back in contention and a team to beat both in the ACC and nationally.

With talent, depth and a proven head coach in Roy Williams, there are plenty of reasons for fans to be excited in Chapel Hill, even if teams such as Duke and Kentucky have stolen much of the headlines this offseason.

If you are still hesitant, here are some reasons to be optimistic going forward.

Underclassmen Returning

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Heading into last season, it was almost assumed North Carolina would lose most of its key players at the end of the year. Paige and Johnson were graduating, while many expected Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks to head to the NBA. Even Theo Pinson could have left early, but opted to return.

While Jackson and Meeks flirted with the NBA draft, neither signed an agent and both ended up deciding to return to school for at least another season.

Now, a lineup that potentially had to replace four starters only has two openings. It almost feels as though the team added two impact players to the lineup, making a huge difference for the upcoming year.

Even though Meeks had a down year, injuries and role played a big part in his reduced production. He and Jackson should be back strong next season and ready to take on the rest of the ACC.

Departed Stars Are Replaceable

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North Carolina lost a lot with its recent graduating class. Johnson was an All-American forward who expanded his game to a high level this past year. Paige was the team's go-to scoring option for each of the last three years. Even Joel James had plenty of value on the defensive end.

There is no denying these are great players who will be sorely missed.

On the other hand, few teams have the ability to replace this type of talent quite like UNC. Isaiah Hicks will almost certainly step into the starting lineup at the 4 and will be ready to finally show what he can do during his senior season. After averaging 19.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per 40 minutes last season, there should be plenty of confidence in the 6'8" forward.

Meanwhile, Joel Berry mostly took on Paige's role as a lead guard and scoring option by the end of last season. To the surprise of some nationally, he ended up finishing with more points and assists per game while shooting better from three-point range.

The Tar Heels will have to find someone else to join the starting lineup, likely Pinson, but the drop-off from Johnson and Paige as team leaders will not be too devastating.

Expanded Roles for Junior Class

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The 2014 recruiting class was a big one at the time and continues to loom large for the Tar Heels' future success. The three McDonald's All-Americans—Berry, Jackson and Pinson—have had varied paths to this point but will all be key in the upcoming season.

Jackson arguably has the highest expectations as a 6'8" wing with the versatility to be a matchup nightmare at the college level. He has started each of the last two years but was often passive and willing to defer to the veteran players on the roster, something he won't be able to do next season.

Berry appears to have a lot more confidence after taking on an expanded role last season, but he will have to take an even bigger jump as one of the leaders on the 2016-17 roster.

Meanwhile, Pinson has all the physical tools to be an impact player with the athleticism to be an elite defender and the instincts to play a useful role offensively. However, he just hasn't been consistent enough to trust.

This trio have been held back a bit in their first two years but will be leaders in the upcoming season, something that could be exciting to watch.

Impact Freshmen

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Whatever you think about the potential for Luke Maye and Kenny Williams, it's clear last year's class was a bit of a disappointment when it came to impact freshmen. That won't be an issue next season.

North Carolina will bring in a three-man class currently ranked No. 10 in the country by 247Sports, all of whom are ready to make an early impact.

Tony Bradley is the highest-rated player as a 5-star recruit, with an advanced offensive skill set for his age and position. The 6'10" center can score with his back to the basket or stepping out and hitting a short jumper while also knowing how to finish by running the floor. He still has room to grow but will see the floor early in his career.

Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson should also get plenty of playing time as athletic guards who can create shots for themselves with the ball in their hands. They each need to learn how to play within an offense but will provide quick boosts off the bench as freshmen.

After Maye and Williams combined for just 63 points all season, the incoming class will have bigger roles all year.

Not Reliant on New Contributors

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This might seem contradictory after the last slide discussed the talent of the freshmen, but North Carolina is in a perfect situation. It has incoming players who can make an impact, but the team doesn't need them to do much.

No matter how highly rated a recruit, he is still a mystery until he steps on the court.

A year ago, Skal Labissiere was one of the top prospects in college basketball, and Kentucky expected him to be the program's next great center. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, he struggled transitioning to the next level and was eventually moved to the bench.

While teams such as Duke and Kentucky have loaded rosters heading into next season, they both are dependent on freshmen coming in and leading the way right out of the gate.

North Carolina won't have that problem with an experienced roster and a set lineup. The freshmen can help, but it won't be a major issue if any of them struggle early.

Elite Chemistry

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For all the talk about the one-and-done era of college basketball, the two teams left standing at the end of the year were Villanova and North Carolina, two squads with experience, balance and chemistry. Other elite teams such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Michigan State were led by upperclassmen who had played together for a few years.

The Tar Heels once again have that going in their favor.

Out of the 11 players who competed in at least 29 games last season, eight of them will return next year. This also includes six of the eight players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game. In the age of transfers and other attrition, this is a pretty impressive figure.

From Berry to Nate Britt to Jackson, these players are comfortable around each other and are very familiar with Roy Williams' system in Chapel Hill. This will give the team an edge over younger squads earlier in the season, and the advantage should carry over throughout the campaign.

Although it can't always be measured, North Carolina's chemistry should make a major difference all year.

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