Predicting Biggest Risers and Fallers of the 2016 NBA Draft Class
There could be a lot of movement on NBA draft boards during the final weeks leading up to June 23.
Teams use workouts to assess prospects hands-on. With strong showings and engaging interviews, these players have the opportunity to move the needle for themselves after the season.
Based on NBA combine performances and projected workout feedback, I predicted six guys to rise relative to where they were ranked on my board in April.
Meanwhile, there are also players doing the opposite. I pegged three who'll be vulnerable to getting leapfrogged on draft boards.
Riser: Malik Beasley (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
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Draft Ceiling: Late lottery
A scout told me in January that Malik Beasley could eventually rise into the lottery. At this point, I wouldn't bet against it.
Beasley is bound to impress during workouts with his athleticism and textbook jumper, and he'll also have the numbers and film to back those up. He's created plenty of above-the-rim highlights and registered a terrific 58.3 true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
There isn't any concern over his background or motor, both of which are selling points.
Between the value tied to shooting and bounce, along with his production and the fact he's 19, don't rule out Beasley as a top-15 option.
NBA Comparison: Wesley Matthews
Riser: Isaiah Whitehead (Seton Hall, PG, Sophomore)
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Draft Ceiling: Late first round
Isaiah Whitehead opted to stay in the draft at the deadline, which makes me think the feedback he's getting must be positive. He told me at the NBA combine it would take late first or early second-round interest for him to remain in the 2016 field.
At 6'4 ½", 210 pounds, Whitehead's physical profile will impress during workouts, when it's easier for coaches to forget or ignore his 37.9 percent field-goal clip.
He's a powerful ball-handler with an encouraging shooting stroke, having made 81 threes at a respectable 36.5 percent. Though he turned the ball over too much at Seton Hall, Whitehead's passing and vision are well-documented strengths.
He looked sharp during five-on-fives at the combine, particularly on May 12 (13 points, five assists and a team-leading plus-40 in the plus-minus category), when there were a number of scouts and executives tuned in.
He may not be for everyone, but I wouldn't be shocked if one first-round general manager bought into Whitehead's NBA potential. Midway through the season, he wouldn't have been top 60 on my board. Whitehead now looks like a candidate to get drafted anywhere in the 20-45 range.
NBA Comparison: Shelvin Mack
Faller: Diamond Stone (Maryland, C, Freshman)
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Draft Floor: Mid second round
It's not that Diamond Stone had a down year; there are just questions regarding his fit and value in today's NBA. With the league going small, Stone, who measured 6'10 ¼", 254.4 pounds with the second-highest body fat percentage at the combine, would have looked more attractive under the NBA lens five years ago.
Today's centers are also required to either stretch the floor or protect the rim, and Stone hasn't proved he does either.
He lacks defensive instincts and registered one of the worst rebounding percentages (13.6, per Sports-Reference.com) of any eligible big man. Though he has some nice touch around the key, it's tough to envision him working the pick-and-pop game anytime soon.
Once viewed as a potential lottery pick, I now anticipate Stone falling out of June's first round.
NBA Comparison: Kevin Seraphin
Riser: Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
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Draft Ceiling: Late lottery
Wade Baldwin IV will have a better chance selling himself during workouts than he did at Vanderbilt, where the Commodores played slow and methodically.
Up close, his 6'4", 201.8-pound size and 6'11 ¼" wingspan will ace the eye test. Assuming his shooting numbers (above 40 percent from three each year) weren't fluky, his jumper will serve him well in practice gyms over the next four weeks.
Articulate and well-spoken, it also wouldn't be surprising if he used team interviews to help extinguish concern over his leadership or disappointing record.
Losses and inconsistency made it tougher to fall in love with him during the season. Now that it's over, it becomes easier to admire and focus on Baldwin's strengths and potential. He could be an enticing option for a number of guard-needy teams, including the Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks, in the top 10.
NBA Comparison: George Hill
Riser: Malachi Richardson (Syracuse, SG, Freshman)
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Draft Ceiling: Mid first round
Malachi Richardson's decision to stay in the draft likely had something to do with the NBA feedback he'd been receiving. After a year outside the 2016 draft discussion, scouts have been recently telling me Richardson will now go in this year's first round.
Once more teams start viewing him as a consensus first-rounder, his stock will only rise.
Richardson has textbook 2-guard size (6'6 ¼") with adequate athleticism and a convincing shooting stroke. He's more of a project than an immediate solution, but at 20 years old, his upside and potential make him more attractive than lower-ceiling late-round question marks. Plus, every team could use an extra shooter, particularly at the off-guard position.
I'm anticipating Richardson generating interest in the teens and getting picked somewhere in the 17-30 range.
NBA Comparison: James Young
Faller: Timothe Luwawu (France, SG/SF, 1995)
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Draft Floor: Early second round
Timothe Luwawu's highlights and mixtapes are phenomenal. But when teams dig a little further, they will find reasons to hesitate.
As the year has gone on, his three-point percentage has decreased. It's now at 35.8 percent—not the most convincing number for a prospect who hangs his hat on three-and-D potential.
He's only shooting 40.2 percent from the floor and 41.9 percent inside the arc, and that's with Mega Leks playing at the fastest pace in the Adriatic League, per RealGM.com.
Luwawu's breakout production created some lottery buzz during most of the year, but I don't expect it to hold up. His season isn't over, either, meaning there won't be as much time for Luwawu to meet with teams.
NBA Comparison: Kelly Oubre
Riser: Cheick Diallo (Kansas, PF/C, Freshman)
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Draft Ceiling: Mid-to-late first round
Cheick Diallo's standout performance at the combine brought his stock back to life. He hadn't done anything during his freshman season at Kansas, having averaged three points in 7.5 minutes per game.
During five-on-fives in Chicago, Diallo's athleticism and motor were impossible to miss. It was a reminder of the impact he can make without needing plays drawn up for him.
Given his 6'9" size and 7'4 ½" wingspan, it's easy to see his physical tools, bounce and competitiveness translating into an NBA energizer role. He should even surprise coaches and executives in workouts with better-than-advertised mid-range shooting touch.
After falling outside the first-round discussion midway through the season, Diallo is back in the picture.
Pro Comparison: Kenneth Faried
Riser: Dejounte Murray (Washington, PG/SG, Freshman)
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Draft Ceiling: Late lottery
Dejounte Murray's stock will benefit from a draft that doesn't offer much flash. He's one of the few lower-profile prospects who packs an exciting punch of upside.
An athletic, 6'5" scoring playmaker, he fits the mold of a Jordan Clarkson-type combo guard, a breed that's become more accepted (and coveted) in today's NBA.
Poor shooting and a high turnover rate kept Murray's draft buzz in check for most of the year, but the upside tied to him figuring things out will be enticing. Over the next month, he'll have the chance to ease some of the concern over his 28.8 percent mark from deep. Murray's jumper isn't broken, considering he averaged one three-point make per game, but it's a work in progress.
He has one of the wider draft ranges in this year's field, but there are bound to be some teams out there that have him ranked in the early teens.
Pro Comparison: Jordan Clarkson
Faller: Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, PF/C, Freshman)
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Draft Floor: Late first round
Despite a disastrous freshman season, Skal Labissiere's long-term upside has given him extra margin for error. His potential remains intact, but can general managers in the lottery feel confident about him reaching it?
I'm not buying that his shooting touch in workouts will do enough to make scouts forget what they saw this season. He finished with five more rebounds than personal fouls.
Labissiere's lack of toughness and feel for the game are blatant concerns. Considering he hasn't gained a pound since the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit (215.8 pounds at the NBA combine), it's also reasonable to question how much bulk he'll be capable of adding.
Knowing that he's unlikely to offer anything as a rookie, and that he's a year older than most freshmen, his NBA case isn't convincing.
He isn't likely to be anyone's Plan A heading into the draft—not after averaging 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds. That makes Labissiere a candidate to slide on June 23, regardless of how many jumpers he hits one-on-none during workouts.
Pro Comparison: Channing Frye
