2016 NBA Mock Draft: Pro Comparisons and Predictions for Elite Guard Prospects
In this year's NBA draft, the top tier of guards consists of Kentucky Wildcats combo guard Jamal Murray, Providence Friars floor general Kris Dunn and Oklahoma Sooners sniper Buddy Hield.
After that, there's a significant drop-off.
With those classifications in mind, here's a look at an updated first-round mock draft, which is followed by a brief overview of each player in that esteemed trio and how they all figure to fare upon arrival in the NBA after June 23's draft.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons, F, LSU |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram, F, Duke |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | Dragan Bender, PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Kris Dunn, G, Providence |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | Buddy Hield, G, Oklahoma |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | Jaylen Brown, F, California |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | Marquese Chriss, F, Washington |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | Deyonta Davis, F/C, Michigan State |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | Skal Labissiere, F/C, Kentucky |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Denzel Valentine, G/F, Michigan State |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards) | Wade Baldwin IV, G, Vanderbilt |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | Henry Ellenson, F, Marquette |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets) | Malik Beasley, G, Florida State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks) | Furkan Korkmaz, G, Anadolu Efes |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | Domantas Sabonis, C, Gonzaga |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers) | Timothe Luwawu, G/F, Mega Leks |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | Malachi Richardson, G/F, Syracuse |
| 21 | Atlanta Hawks | DeAndre' Bembry, F, Saint Joseph's |
| 22 | Charlotte Hornets | Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt |
| 23 | Boston Celtics | Taurean Prince, F, Baylor |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami Heat) | Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame |
| 25 | Los Angeles Clippers | Cheick Diallo, C, Kansas |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder) | Malcolm Brogdon, G, Virginia |
| 27 | Toronto Raptors | Thon Maker, F/C, Sudan |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers) | Dejounte Murray, G, Washington |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | Ante Zizic, C, Cibona Zagreb |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Ivica Zubac, C, Mega Leks |
Elite Guard Breakdowns and Player Comparisons
Jamal Murray, Kentucky
Murray was overshadowed a bit by point guard Tyler Ulis during his lone season with the Wildcats, but he was objectively one of the nation's most consistent and potent scorers.
To wit: Murray led Kentucky in scoring at an even 20 points per game, and he did so while shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from beyond the three-point line.
Compare those numbers to the ones Portland Trail Blazers combo guard C.J. McCollum posted during his freshman season with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks, and there are some striking similarities:
| Jamal Murray (2015-16) | 20.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 45.4% | 40.8% | 22.7 |
| C.J. McCollum (2009-10) | 19.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 45.9% | 42.1% | 25.8 |
What's even more impressive is Murray flashed pro-ready catch-and-shoot chops all year long. According to Hoop-Math.com, 89.4 percent of the 19-year-old's buckets from beyond the arc were set up by assists.
Plus, Murray has on-ball skills that he wasn't able to flash at Kentucky since Ulis was always orchestrating the offense, as he told ESPN.com's Chad Ford:
"I did what I had to do at Kentucky. I've played point guard my whole life. But we had Tyler [Ulis] there. I wasn't focused on scoring 20 points a game. I was just doing whatever we need to win. Sometimes that was scoring 26 points, sometimes 12 and focusing on getting people involved from the 2 spot.
"
Pro Player Comparison: C.J. McCollum
Kris Dunn, Providence
Although floor generals used to be tasked with distributing first and scoring second, today's NBA requires primary ball-handlers to split their time evenly between scoring and passing. In other words, versatile playmakers are prioritized when it comes to building a modern backcourt.
Dunn, then, is the perfect cornerstone for a team in need of a dynamic presence on the ball.
The 6'4", 205-pound wrecking ball averaged 16.4 points and 6.2 assists during his final season with the Friars and posted solid shooting splits of 44.8/37.2/69.5 in the process. Dunn also finished 62.6 percent of his shots at the rim—just 0.3 percentage points off the mark posted by 6'8" forward Ben Bentil, per Hoop-Math.
"Dunn is terrific in the open floor, where he can weave through traffic and set up teammates for easy layups or open threes," Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote. "In the half court, he's at his best working in ball-screen situations, where he freezes the defense with hesitation or change of direction."
If that sounds familiar, it's because Washington Wizards point guard John Wall has long burned opponents by embracing similar tactics.
Dunn's mid-range jumper will need some work if he's going to ever match Wall's caliber of play in the half court, but his change-of-pace and slashing capabilities should make him an instant-impact contributor from the get-go.
Pro Player Comparison: John Wall
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
The nation's reigning Wooden Award winner, Hield, will arrive in the NBA with a lethal three-point stroke that should immediately strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses.
During his ascent up the collegiate hierarchy, Hield drained an outrageous 45.7 percent of his long-range attempts—which accounted for 54 percent of his total shots, according to Hoop-Math. DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony wrote about Hield's shooting prowess:
"He's deadly in transition, is always moving to relocate into a better look after giving it up and has a super quick trigger that allows him to get his shot off in the blink of an eye. Hield knocks down shots from NBA range on a regular basis, often with a hand in his face while well-guarded by defenses that are geared to slowing him down.
"
Based on those characteristics, the natural comparison for Hield is former Duke Blue Devils and current Los Angeles Clippers sharpshooter J.J. Redick.
During his senior season at Duke, Redick also took home Wooden Award honors while shooting 47 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from three. And like Hield, a majority of Redick's attempts (330-of-643) during that span came from beyond the arc.
Hield will need to develop more refined skills off the bounce moving toward the basket, but he has the polished mechanics necessary to fly off pindowns and carve out a sizable role right away.
Pro Player Comparison: J.J. Redick
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. Height and weight measurements courtesy of DraftExpress.
