The Ideal 2016 Prospect for Each NBA Lottery Team
Every team will enter the 2016 NBA draft with a wish list of high-priority targets.
The ideal prospect for each franchise fills a specific need and offers maximum talent relative to where the pick is in the lottery.
For example, the Los Angeles Lakers need scoring and shooting from the wing and could potentially find it in a prospect whose potential justifies No. 2 overall consideration.
For teams drafting outside the top two, LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram are ineligible here, given the unlikelihood they're available at No. 3 and beyond.
Starting at No. 9, Croatia's Dragan Bender, California's Jaylen Brown, Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, Providence's Kris Dunn and Kentucky's Jamal Murray are off-limits, assuming none of these five will get past the Sacramento Kings at No. 8.
Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 13
Ben Simmons (LSU, PF, Freshman)
Duke's Brandon Ingram is the better fit based on what the Philadelphia 76ers already have. But what they already have won them 10 games. Nobody on this roster has done enough to hold the status of untouchable or franchise cornerstone.
Team needs should not factor into management's decision-making process. The only need the 76ers have is talent, and they potentially need it at every position.
Still 18 years old and 196 pounds, Ingram is the type of prospect who will have a better chance at succeeding early in a lineup with established weapons. The 76ers don't have many (or any).
Given his experience quarterbacking a team, along with his 6'10", 240-pound frame, quickness and showtime athleticism, Simmons should be a lot better suited for this type of setting. The Sixers also ranked No. 6 last year in pace, per ESPN, a big plus for Simmons' dynamite transition game.
He would give Philadelphia someone who can create high-percentage shots for others.
The 76ers should take Simmons and move Nerlens Noel to the bench, where coach Brett Brown can tap into his bounce and energy while masking his offensive limitations with fewer touches.
Los Angeles Lakers
2 of 13
Brandon Ingram (Duke, SF, Freshman)
The Lakers won't be too disappointed if the 76ers draft Simmons at No. 1—Ingram packs plenty of upside and slides more seamlessly into L.A.'s plans.
Ingram is a natural fit in L.A., where the Los Angeles Lakers needs a wing. With Jordan Clarkson and D'Angelo Russell doing most of the ball-handling and playmaking, the Lakers can ease Ingram in as a spot-up shooter and opportunistic scorer. It's a role he excelled in playing for Duke and one that allows him to slowly build confidence.
Simmons and Julius Randle would have a tough time playing together—the Lakers finished dead last in the league in three-point shooting, something neither player offers.
Among Russell, Clarkson, Randle and whomever management signs in free agency, Simmons wouldn't have the ball nearly as much as he's used to. And at this point, he hasn't shown he's comfortable or threatening playing without it.
Boston Celtics
3 of 13
Dragan Bender (Croatia, PF/C, 1997)
Assuming neither Simmons nor Ingram will be there for the Boston Celtics, they'll likely be looking at multiple players, including Croatia's Dragan Bender, Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, Kentucky's Jamal Murray, Providence's Kris Dunn and California's Jaylen Brown.
With so much uncertainty and three first-round picks, this is a draft worth gambling on (for the Celtics) when a high-upside opportunity presents itself.
Bender has the chance to be one-of-a-kind, given the shortage of 7'1" bigs who can stretch the floor, handle the ball and defend. Bender shot 39 percent from three in 27 Israeli League games this season, and the Celtics ranked No. 28 in three-point percentage. Fittingly, the Celtics need a frontcourt upgrade at both the 4 and 5.
If he pans out, he would be a textbook fit in Boston. Considering head coach Brad Stevens' track record, and the team's success and overall discipline, this is a great place for Bender to develop as well.
Phoenix Suns
4 of 13
(No. 4) Jaylen Brown (California, SF/PF, Freshman)
Bender would be intriguing at No. 4, but Jaylen Brown's fit in Phoenix is just too good, assuming the Suns continue running with Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Devin Booker.
Though he still struggles in half-court situations, Brown is a phenomenal transition athlete. The NBA's open floor, along with Phoenix's pace (No. 4 in the league, per ESPN), should suit his game better than college did.
The idea of the Suns' experimenting with Brown (or P.J. Tucker) as a small-ball 4 could also be interesting.
He measured 6'6 ¾" but with a 222.8-pound frame and 6'11 ¾" wingspan. Depending on the matchup, Brown could have the strength and length to compete physically and too much quickness for bigger power forwards.
Either way, for Phoenix he's a high-upside prospect who would fill a need and naturally fit the team's style of play.
(No. 13) Furkan Korkmaz (Turkey, SG/SF, 1997)
Next to Buddy Hield, Korkmaz may be the second-best shooter in this draft. And though he reportedly has a buyout in his contract this summer, according to his agent, he'd be an ideal draft-and-stash play for the Suns with their second lottery selection.
He's only 18 years old and plays just 12.1 minutes per game overseas. Korkmaz won't be ready next year, but by staying abroad for one more season, he should be looking at a bigger role and more experience against pros.
Though the Suns have three first-round picks, they shouldn't feel obligated to add three rookies to their 2016-17 payroll. Taking Korkmaz and saving him for later is an ideal play at No. 13, regardless of whom the Suns draft at No. 4.
Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 13
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
Now that the Minnesota Timberwolves have their two franchise cornerstones in Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, it's time to start building around them. Teenagers such as Dragan Bender and Jamal Murray may be enticing, but the team already has enough youth and upside.
Hield, 22 and physically ready to compete, would give the Wolves a sure thing and much-needed shooting, after the team finished No. 25 in three-point percentage during the 2015-16 season.
He's coming off arguably the most impressive shooting season since 1994. Except for Stephen Curry, no college player since has hit more triples in a college year, per Sports-Reference.com. He's also the only player to average at least 25 points and register a true shooting percentage above 66 percent (minimum three games) in that time.
Hield doesn't need one-on-one touches to get going. He should be capable of complementing Wiggins and Towns by stretching the floor and running off screens.
In terms of roster construction, the Wolves might be best starting Hield at the 2 and grooming Zach LaVine into the team's sixth man.
New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 13
Kris Dunn (Providence, PG, Junior)
Dunn would give the Pelicans a playmaking spark and potentially a needed setup man for Anthony Davis.
It's easy to picture them working the two-man game in ball-screen situations for years to come. Dunn's most attractive quality is his ability to create quality shots for teammates, whether they're off pick-and-rolls, penetration or transition pushes.
He would also give New Orleans the option to pressure the ball closer to half court—Dunn can be a pesky defender who forces turnovers and helps convert them into fast-break points.
Hield or Murray would work in New Orleans as well, but if the Pelicans value Dunn as the better overall prospect, questions over his fit with Jrue Holiday shouldn't be alarming enough for management to pass.
Taking Dunn would likely mean letting Eric Gordon walk and moving Holiday to either shooting guard or sixth man.
Denver Nuggets
7 of 13
Jamal Murray (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
With more bigs and small forwards than they know what to do with, the Denver Nuggets could really use some backcourt firepower and shot-making.
Given Emmanuel Mudiay's struggles as a shooter and Gary Harris' limitations as a scorer, Jamal Murray is the ideal target for the Nuggets. He averaged 20 points and hit 113 threes at a 40.8 percent clip.
In simplistic terms, his NBA value will revolve around his ability to put the ball in the hole.
It might mean having to trade up a few spots, something Denver could be able to do with three top-20 picks, but Murray should be atop the team's lottery wish list. It wouldn't be shocking if he were No. 3 on their current draft board.
Sacramento Kings
8 of 13
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
Kris Dunn will be an attractive target for the Sacramento Kings, considering Rajon Rondo is entering free agency. But if the Kings couldn't win games with Rondo leading the league in assists, Dunn won't be moving the needle for this team anytime soon.
Hield gives Sacramento the shooter it has been looking for at the 2-guard position. Ben McLemore hasn't hit the 37 percent three-point mark yet through three NBA seasons. Marco Belinelli barely shot 30 percent from deep during his first year as a King.
Coming off a season in which he sank four threes per game (on 45.7 percent shooting), averaged 25 points and led Oklahoma to the 2016 Final Four, Hield's shot-making credibility coming out of college is as good as it gets.
His well-documented work ethic and character, along with the fact he looks NBA-ready, only strengthens his case as a priority target for Sacramento.
Toronto Raptors
9 of 13
Marquese Chriss (Washington, PF, Freshman)
We're going to assume that Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield are off the board by No. 9. There won't be an obvious answer here for the Toronto Raptors in the lottery, making it the right opportunity to gamble on upside.
Marquese Chriss may need some time, but so will every other available prospect. He's arguably the bounciest big man in the draft and could potentially fill a major hole at power forward.
Utah's Jakob Poeltl is too similar to Jonas Valanciunas. Michigan State's Deyonta Davis and Kentucky's Skal Labissiere are both projects, but neither packs the versatility or athleticism that Chriss does. Michigan State's Denzel Valentine and Marquette's Henry Ellenson are safe bets, but the Raptors can go after a role player with their second first-round pick.
Among Chriss' leaping ability, tremendous coordination, promising shooting stroke and post game for a 6'10" 4 man, he offers upside worth chasing in a draft that lacks top-10 star power.
Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 13
Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
With cornerstones in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker, this is an opportunity for the Milwaukee Bucks to upgrade at point guard or center.
Jakob Poeltl would make sense if management were looking to move on from Greg Monroe. But how much more would Poeltl have to offer, given his lack of shot-blocking and shooting range?
Baldwin would be the more attractive play, thanks to superior upside at his position and questions over Michael Carter-Williams' NBA value.
Baldwin's incredible length (6'11 ¼" wingspan) and above-the-rim athleticism also fit with the team's identity. He has the potential to become a nightmare defender for opposing ball-handlers, and he has also shot at least 40 percent from deep in both seasons at Vanderbilt. Unlike Carter-Williams, Baldwin can make defenses pay around the arc.
He still has some work to do with his handle and pull-up game, but Baldwin's physical tools, burst, jumper, passing and defense fuel intriguing two-way potential.
He's atop the tier that follows Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Dunn, Hield, Murray and Brown.
Orlando Magic
11 of 13
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, PG/SG, Senior)
Finding a starter at No. 11 may be unrealistic for the Orlando Magic, but this is an opportunity to add depth and shooting to a backcourt that starts guards who both shot below 35 percent from three.
Valentine hit at least 100 triples in back-to-back seasons. He offers perimeter scoring, something the Magic don't get much of, plus high-IQ passing from the point or wing.
He also finished second in the country this year in assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
Valentine's ceiling only goes so high, given his age (will be 23 in November) and limited burst. But among his jumper, distributing and productivity, he projects as one of the safer bets in this year's field.
At No. 11, Orlando should value the surer thing, rather than the high-risk, high-reward project—especially when the Magic consider the need Valentine can fill right away.
Utah Jazz
12 of 13
Wade Baldwin IV (Vanderbilt, PG, Sophomore)
The Utah Jazz can't be sure what they have in Dante Exum, who's coming off a torn ACL. They can be with Trey Burke, who's more of a bench spark than a starting floor general.
They're set with depth on the wing and committed to Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert up front.
One couldn't argue against center Jakob Poeltl, but if Baldwin is there, Utah should use this opportunity to grab another ball-handler to compete with Exum and Shelvin Mack.
At the very least, the Jazz get a defensive-minded guard and threatening shooter. But given his mismatch physical tools and athleticism, along with promising development as a facilitator, Baldwin's long-term potential is exciting.
It might mean dealing with a logjam for a while, but it's time to move on from Burke, who doesn't hold enough value to this rotation. Utah would be better off giving his 21.3 minutes to Baldwin in a developmental year.
Chicago Bulls
13 of 13
Malik Beasley (Florida State, SG, Freshman)
With Joakim Noah reportedly having told teammates he's done in Chicago, per the Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley, Utah's Jakob Poeltl seems like an ideal lottery target. But Poeltl isn't likely to be there when the Bulls draft at No. 14.
Malik Beasley should be. He would fill a need with E'Twaun Moore entering free agency. Meanwhile, Beasley's explosiveness, shooting credibility and defensive motor have helped him build a convincing NBA case.
One of the top athletes in the draft, he also registered a terrific 58.3 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com. Beasley's quickness and effort help strengthen his three-and-D image as well.
Denzel Valentine should earn consideration if he's around, but at 19 years old with bounce and more defensive potential, Beasley's upside tips the scale in his favor.
