
Kentucky Basketball: Wildcats' Biggest Reasons for Optimism in 2016-17
The Kentucky Wildcats had a relatively disappointing 2015-16 season, but just like every other year under John Calipari, there is plenty of reason for optimism going forward.
The past seven years in Lexington have featured four Final Four berths, a national championship and at least 20 wins every season. No matter which players are on the roster, there is a high likelihood of success.
However, fans will once again have to learn a bunch of new names with a high level of roster turnover. Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray, Skal Labissiere, Alex Poythress and Charles Matthews are all gone. They're heading either to the NBA or elsewhere, leaving a lot of inexperience on the roster. The pressure is on the young players to take control and meet expectations with another big year.
Still, the uncertainty should not slow the confidence heading into the 2016-17 season. There is a ton of talent, as the Wildcats are projected to once again begin in the top five of the major polls.
In case you are still a bit down on the team's chances, here are some reasons for optimism going forward.
Another Elite Recruiting Class
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We have become used to seeing Calipari bring in top recruiting classes no matter where he is, and this year is no different. According to 247Sports, Kentucky has the No. 2 class in college basketball with five players signed. All of them are rated as 5-star talents and rank among the top 25 players in the nation.
Losing the battle for Marques Bolden allowed Duke to likely finish this cycle as No. 1 overall, but an average rating of 99.54 for the Wildcats players is easily the best in the country.
Perhaps the biggest jewel of the class is De'Aaron Fox, who is in the running as the top point guard in high school basketball. The 6'3" player has the length and athleticism to be a star on both ends of the court and is adept at leading an offense. Although Ulis is a tough player to replace, Fox will help fans forget about the departed guard.
Malik Monk will also help replace Murray as an outside scorer, while Bam Adebayo could actually be an upgrade over Labissiere.
Kentucky is used to having high-upside talent and future NBA stars, and next year's squad should be more of the same.
Young Players Have Advanced Skill Sets
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It's one thing to have talent, but it's quite another to be ready to compete at a high level right out of the gate.
Labissiere showed the difference this past season as a highly touted recruit, according to 247Sports, who struggled most of the year while averaging just 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. He's not exactly a bust quite yet, as he is still a potential lottery pick in the NBA draft, but his lack of polish hurt the Wildcats.
Not everyone can be like Murray or Anthony Davis and become an impact player from day one, but a few players in the 2016 class will be closer to this side of the spectrum.
Adebayo has the strength and physicality necessary to battle inside—something Labissiere and Marcus Lee struggled with throughout their careers. Monk has the polish of a versatile scorer who can create his shot from anywhere on the floor and is likely to become a go-to option early on next season.
Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones might need a bit more time, but they should both make an impact on the defensive end of the floor thanks to their length and shot-blocking ability.
There won't be a lot of time to wait for these men to develop, so coming to school ready to play will give the team a nice advantage.
Quality Players Should Return
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The deadline for underclassmen to remove their names from the draft is Wednesday, May 25, yet a couple of key players have yet to publicly make a decision.
Both Marcus Lee and Isaiah Briscoe have the option of returning to school after not signing an agent. Considering it might be a long shot for either to be drafted, coming back to Lexington would be the smart decision.
Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv provided a harsh reality from a reliable source, tweeting, "NBA scout on Kentucky's Isaiah Briscoe and Marcus Lee: 'Neither one of them is ready. They both need to go back to school.'"
Obviously, this takes into account what these players should do and not what they will do. Everyone's situation is different, and a lot more goes into choices than many know.
Still, the return of Briscoe and Lee would add talent and some much-needed experience to an otherwise young roster. The leadership alone would be a major boost to the program.
Offensive Balance
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Ulis and Murray represented one of the best backcourt tandems in college basketball last season, combining to average 37.3 points per game. Briscoe also had his moments offensively with 9.6 points per game, helping the Wildcats win with guard play.
Unfortunately, it was difficult to rely upon the frontcourt with only Poythress averaging double digits with 10.2 points per game. There was no balance, and opposing teams could be successful by keying on one or two players.
A triangle-and-two could have slowed this group to a halt.
The good news is this should be less of an issue in 2016-17 with a lot more depth inside. Derek Willis will enter the year with a lot more confidence, as will Isaac Humphries. The additions of Adebayo, Gabriel, Killeya-Jones and Tai Wynyard will also provide help in the post.
Even if some of these players provide little more than offensive rebounds and putbacks, it will still provide Kentucky with more weapons than it had a year ago.
Defense Will Be Back on Top
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According to KenPom.com, Kentucky's defensive efficiency ranked just 53rd in college basketball last season, second worst in seven years under Calipari. The 2013 season that featured Nerlens Noel tearing his ACL was the only one with a lower rating (129th overall).
The reason for optimism is the fact the team will add players who will better fit the defensive mindset.
Ulis was a hard worker on the defensive end, but his lack of size at 5'9" limited his ability to shut down opponents. This won't be a problem for Fox, who has a long wingspan and should be able to get his hands in passing lanes. Putting him next to Briscoe will especially make things difficult for opposing guards.
Meanwhile, Humphries and Adebayo should be able to use their strength in the post to prevent easy looks in the paint.
If this group can avoid foul trouble, it can become one of the nation's best.
Improved Athleticism
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If you like highlight-reel dunks, blocks and other big plays, you will enjoy watching Kentucky this upcoming season.
Gabriel and Killeya-Jones can both run the floor well and will likely be on the receiving end of plenty of alley-oops this upcoming season. While they each are skilled enough to create for themselves, these easy baskets could represent a lot of their scoring early in their careers.
Fox and Monk should also represent an upgrade in the backcourt when it comes to explosive plays and should have an easier time finishing around the basket than their predecessors.
The Wildcats often slow down the pace and make opponents play their games, but the athleticism and quickness on the roster could lead them to be more active in transition. Between steals and rebounds, there could always be someone breaking out to the other side of the court ready for an easy basket.
Opponents won't know what him them.
Weak SEC
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While not considered a powerhouse conference, many expected the SEC to take a big jump last season thanks to a number of veteran coaches and an infusion of young talent. Unfortunately, only three teams made the NCAA tournament, including a Vanderbilt team that lost before the round of 64.
It's a new year, but there shouldn't be too much more balance this time around.
Texas A&M lost four senior starters and have a lot of rebuilding to do despite having some young talent on the roster. LSU lost Ben Simmons, Vanderbilt lost Wade Baldwin and Damian Jones, and South Carolina lost leading scorer Michael Carrera.
While Kentucky also lost plenty of quality players, it will replace them with elite freshmen. According to 247Sports, Mississippi State is the only other SEC team with a top-15 recruiting class.
This should make it not too surprising Gary Parrish of CBS Sports listed just one SEC team, Kentucky, in his early top 25 for next season.
Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Florida and others will create some challenge, but the Wildcats are the clear favorite within the conference once again.
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