Monaco Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Monte Carlo Race
The sixth round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Monaco Grand Prix, where Red Bull will be the favourites to win a race for the first time in almost three years.
Max Verstappen's arrival from Toro Rosso has re-energised the four-time world champions, and everyone in the paddock seemed to be touched by the 18-year-old's recent record-breaking victory in Spain.
Everyone except the boy wonder's new team-mate, Daniel Ricciardo, who almost seemed personally offended that he was denied the opportunity to take Red Bull's first win in two seasons having made a habit of taking advantage of Mercedes' mishaps throughout his breakthrough season in 2014.
But with Red Bull's RB12 chassis set to be strong on the streets of Monte Carlo, and with the promise of a new-and-improved Renault engine, Ricciardo will fancy his chances of bouncing back in style.
With a look at how Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg may respond to their Spanish GP collision, Jenson Button's prospects with an increasingly confident McLaren-Honda outfit and the potential trials and tribulations awaiting Esteban Gutierrez and Felipe Massa, here are five bold predictions for Monaco.
Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo Will Win from Pole Position
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Formula One's Mr. Nice Guy came dangerously close to turning nasty in the immediate aftermath of the Spanish Grand Prix.
Forced to settle for a fourth fourth-place finish in five races as new team-mate Max Verstappen eased to Red Bull's first victory in almost two years, Daniel Ricciardo was left appalled by the pit wall's decision to switch him to a three-stop strategy.
According to Motorsport.com's Darshan Chokhani, the Australian explained how his side of the garage "threw the win away" with a strategy that "didn't make sense."
And he was still complaining a week later, telling a Red Bull video (h/t Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble) he was struggling to come to terms with the nature of his defeat after comfortably leading the opening phase of the race.
With Verstappen making a flawless start to life at Red Bull, Ricciardo hardly appears to be in an ideal frame of mind as he enters the most challenging period of his career to date.
At a circuit where Red Bull's RB12 could be the car to beat, however, he will be in a perfect position to respond immediately and claim the victory his performances in the opening months of 2016 deserve.
At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Verstappen or Ricciardo will be granted the honour of racing Renault's upgraded power unit—worth as much as "half a second per lap," as engine technical director Remi Taffin told Noble—for the first time in Monaco.
But unless Red Bull are yet to learn their lessons from Silverstone 2010, when another popular Aussie was made to feel inferior to his younger, more fashionable team-mate, Ricciardo will surely be handed the new engine.
And with it the opportunity to secure a maiden pole position and a first win since August 2014.
Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg Will Collide Again After Spanish GP Crash
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Most people in Formula One were in agreement that the Mercedes management, led by team boss Toto Wolff, handled the Spanish Grand Prix crash between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg with impeccable professionalism.
Rather than raging at the sight of the Silver Arrows sitting in the gravel trap—as he did following their last high-profile collision at Spa 2014—Wolff, with two years of relentless success behind him, was far more circumspect.
Per Sky Sports' Pete Gill and James Galloway, he refused to blame either Hamilton or Rosberg. He understood this was a consequence of allowing his drivers to race freely. And he acknowledged the importance of allowing his drivers to continue to race freely, despite the obvious pitfalls.
He would also have reminded Rosberg and Hamilton that while he could tolerate one dose of friendly fire, a repeat incident would be unacceptable.
Following the embarrassment of Spain, perhaps the worst place for Hamilton and Rosberg—now fully aware of their responsibilities to the team—to resume their rivalry is the tight streets of Monaco, where drivers consciously trying to avoid contact can find themselves gravitating toward each other.
Should they be denied a front-row start by Red Bull or Ferrari, that pressure—those constant mental reminders to avoid their team-mate in all circumstances—could lead to outright panic as Mercedes' superiority is challenged for the second successive race.
Whether it is a slight coming together at Sainte Devote on the opening lap, the result of a lazy poke of a front wing down the inside of the Grand Hotel hairpin or a half-hearted move under braking for the Nouvelle chicane, Rosberg and Hamilton will come to blows yet again this weekend.
Wolff told the team's official website how Mercedes must "hit back hard" in Monaco, but he should be more concerned about them turning on each other.
Jenson Button Will Take McLaren-Honda to the Top 5
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After enduring their worst season in 35 years in 2015, McLaren-Honda have made a conscious effort to manage expectations in the early months of 2016.
From the moment the MP4-31 car was unveiled in late February, chairman Ron Dennis made no secret of McLaren's "purpose" to win but informed the team's official website he would "make no predictions as to when those wins will come."
Even at the close of winter testing, when they had gained plenty of data about their car and the performance levels of their rivals, racing director Eric Boullier was reluctant to "say anything," admitting he was petrified of having "any wrong expectations," per F1i.com's Chris Medland.
That caution bled into the opening five races, when steady, subtle progress was the aim of the game. But ahead of the Monaco Grand Prix, McLaren have found their voices once more.
At a track that should play to the strengths—or rather, disguise the vices—of the MP4-31, Boullier has told Autosport's Ben Anderson and Ian Parkes how McLaren, with the third-best chassis on the grid, are capable of beating Ferrari on merit.
Unless the team have suddenly reverted to their 2015-style chirpiness, we can only assume McLaren are entering the Monaco weekend with genuine confidence that Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button can score points without relying on the misfortune of others.
Button has often excelled at Monte Carlo in the second half of his F1 career, winning in 2009 and driving exceptionally to score the first points of McLaren's latest Honda-powered era a year ago.
And if McLaren can finally walk the walk as well as they talk the talk, Button will comfortably finish in the top five in what should be the alliance's most complete performance yet.
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Esteban Gutierrez Will Become the Latest Victim of the Nouvelle Chicane
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Formula One, as legendary commentator Murray Walker famously said (per the Mirror's Ben Curtis), is the sport in which anything can (and usually does) happen.
But for all its majesty, the Monaco Grand Prix has always carried a certain level of predictability.
We know the man on pole position is almost guaranteed victory in the race; we know a group of drivers will strut around awkwardly during the Amber Lounge fashion show; and we know at least one of them will lose control of their car under braking for the Nouvelle chicane at some point during the weekend.
The perils of the seafront chicane have been obvious since Jenson Button was ruled out of the 2003 race after suffering a heavy impact the previous day, and the corner has claimed a number of victims in recent years.
Kimi Raikkonen famously condemned Adrian Sutil to a career of mediocrity after costing the German a fourth-place finish in 2008, and Sergio Perez was forced to miss two races following a Button-esque shunt in 2011, just hours after Nico Rosberg narrowly avoided a head-on crash with the barrier.
Even a fresh track surface couldn't stop Roberto Merhi experiencing a more conventional Nouvelle no-no in 2015, and the run of drivers suddenly turning right into the outside wall is surely set to continue.
This year, we suspect Esteban Gutierrez—no stranger to mistakes in Monaco, having cost Sauber a valuable points finish in 2014 by spinning at La Rascasse—will be the one making the long walk back to the pit lane.
Ahead of the Spanish GP, the Mexican—according to Autosport's Ian Parkes—complained Haas' frequent technical problems are spoiling "the f--king great job" he is doing at F1's newest team and making him "look very bad to the outside as a driver."
But Gutierrez, yet to score a point in 2016, is hardly helping himself in that regard. And after locking up and sliding into retirement on the first lap in Russia, he will make another mistake under braking on the exit of the tunnel.
Felipe Massa Will Sit out Qualifying After a Crash in FP3
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By definition, free-practice sessions are relatively dull occasions as the teams work to what they refer to as pre-determined "run plans," but Saturday morning in Monaco is by far the most crucial of a given season.
After a day of rest on Friday, the drivers return to the track for 60 minutes to lay down the rubber and rediscover the rhythm they established during the first two practice sessions on Thursday.
Those who get it right enter qualifying with a boost of confidence and increased commitment, but those who get it wrong can blunt their self-belief and spoil their entire weekend before the serious business even begins.
Having been ruled out of qualifying in 2010, the year he came within four points of winning a third world title, Fernando Alonso knows just how costly a mistake in FP3 can be, with Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen also unable to recover from early morning adventures at Sainte Devote in 2013 and 2015 respectively.
Despite setting a surprise pole position in 2008, Massa has never been truly comfortable on the streets of Monte Carlo, and Williams' difficulties at low-speed circuits in recent seasons has only magnified his struggles.
Per Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble, the Brazilian was criticised by Williams technical boss Pat Symonds for his failure to progress from Q1 at the Spanish GP, and we fear Massa will suffer more qualifying misery on Saturday.
A clip of the barrier in the closing minutes of FP3 will leave the Williams mechanics with a race against time to repair his FW38 for qualifying, and Massa will face an uphill struggle to maintain the team's run of scoring points in every race in 2016.
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