NBA Draft 2016: 1st-Round Mock Draft and Predictions for Top Underrated Players
More so than in other drafts, it's hard to unearth sleepers at the NBA draft. It's pretty rare that players drafted out of the first round—or in many drafts, even the lottery—ever develop into star players.
What does happen every year, however, is that teams and pundits alike undervalue and underrate a few players. That happens for a number of reasons, though with organizations often valuing potential above all other factors, it's often the upperclassmen in a draft who fall a few slots further than they should.
That's not always the case, of course, but it has become a trend in the one-and-done era of college basketball. So below, we'll take a look at a few of this year's underrated prospects, with two of them very much fitting the "undervalued upperclassmen" trope.
Projections
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons, PF, LSU |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | Dragan Bender, PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | Jaylen Brown, SF, California |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jakob Poeltl, PF, Utah |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards) | Timothe Luwawu, SG, France |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets) | Denzel Valentine, SF, Michigan State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks) | Taurean Prince, SF, Baylor |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | Wade Baldwin IV, SG, Vanderbilt |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers) | Ante Zizic, C, Croatia |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse |
| 21 | Atlanta Hawks | DeAndre' Bembry, SF, St. Joseph's |
| 22 | Charlotte Hornets | Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame |
| 23 | Boston Celtics | Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan State |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami Heat) | Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State |
| 25 | Los Angeles Clippers | Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder) | Dejounte Murray, PG, Washington |
| 27 | Toronto Raptors | Patrick McCaw, SG, UNLV |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers) | Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | Cheick Diallo, PF, Kansas |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Thon Maker, PF, Australia |
Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
How is a player projected to be a top-five pick in the above mock draft possibly underrated?
Fair question.
The answer is this: Hield averaged 25.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.1 steals per game, while shooting 50.1 percent from the field and 45.7 percent from beyond the arc. And he did that in one of, if not the nation's toughest conference this past season—the Big 12.
If teams drafted on pure production alone, Hield would be a top-two pick, and maybe the top selection.
In the burgeoning age of perimeter shooters, Hield fits in perfectly. He has a consistent, pure stroke from range, he regularly hits contested shots, he's dangerous in transition, he can create looks for himself off the dribble and he's improved defensively, though it's not necessarily a strength.
He'll be a shooting guard at the next level, as he isn't the best playmaker, but he should be able to provide excellent scoring from day one. And he's consistently shown improvement over his college career, suggesting his work ethic is excellent and he won't rest on his laurels at the NBA level.
Hield should absolutely be a consideration for the Boston Celtics at No. 3. But given his age (22) he could easily drop out of the top eight picks. It's hard to imagine he won't be an excellent scorer and three-point threat at the next level.
Denzel Valentine, SF, Michigan State
In the age of small ball and given the success of a 'tweener like Draymond Green, there is every reason to believe that Denzel Valentine can succeed in the NBA.
He's a versatile player who can likely play both guard spots and small forward in the NBA, he's an excellent shooter—he shot 46.2 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from beyond the arc in his senior season, averaging 19.2 points per game—he facilitates for his teammates (7.8 APG), he rebounds well (7.5 RPG) and he's an incredibly intelligent and driven player whose effort will never be questioned.
So, why might he drop out of the lottery?
For starters, his age. At 22, Valentine is older than many of the prospects in this year's draft. Teams look for upside, and while Valentine will come into the NBA a polished prospect, he also has a lower ceiling than many enticing talents in this draft. It's the same dilemma teams will face when it comes to Hield.
Valentine's versatility is also a downside, since he doesn't seem to have a true position at the next level. He'll either be a somewhat unathletic guard or an undersized forward. Offensively, that won't be a huge issue. But defensively, where Valentine simply isn't very effective, it could be a major detriment.
Valentine's defense, quite frankly, isn't great. He made up for that by being an offensive force his senior season and by displaying excellent effort, but he simply isn't much of a defender, especially when called upon to play on-ball defense.
So in that regard, his potential fall out of the lottery does make sense. But Valentine also significantly improved every year at Michigan State, so his drive will never be questioned. And his versatility offensively will make him an excellent weapon on that side of the court. Any team that wants to play fast or a more fluid, floor-spacing style will be able to quickly find a place for Valentine.
Yes, his limitations will keep him out of the first seven or eight picks. But Valentine offers too many offensive pluses, and if he in fact does fall out of the lottery, a lot of teams are going to regret letting him slip past them.
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
Domantas Sabonis improved dramatically between his freshman and sophomore seasons, averaging 17.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per game while shooting 61.1 percent from the field. He can play both power forward and center, he has great touch around the rim and he has a developing post game.
He's hardly athletic for the position, however, so he'll never be much in the way of a shot-blocker or impact defender. And because he prefers to play with his back to the basket, at the moment he can't effectively play the popular stretch-4 role many teams are looking for in the modern game.
Nonetheless, Sabonis is still evolving as a player and is already a very good low-post player. While teams might see a limited upside, what Sabonis does he does very well and in a workmanlike way. He'll never be a star, but if he can extend his shooting range, he should be a very nice player for a long time in the NBA.
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