2016 NBA Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

In the age of the one-and-done superstar and the European influx into the NBA, the process of evaluating players has become more and more difficult. Every year it seems more boom-or-bust prospects hit the NBA, tantalizing with raw talent and infuriating with unpolished games and questionable skill sets.

Below, we'll analyze the biggest boom-or-bust talents in the 2016 NBA draft, along with predicting how the first round will fall on June 23 in a mock draft.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Philadelphia 76ers	Ben Simmons, PF, LSU
2	Los Angeles Lakers	Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke
3	Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)	Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky
4	Phoenix Suns	Dragan Bender, PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv
5	Minnesota Timberwolves	Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
6	New Orleans Pelicans	Jaylen Brown, SF, California
7	Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks)	Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette
8	Sacramento Kings	Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
9	Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets)	Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington
10	Milwaukee Bucks	Jakob Poeltl, PF, Utah
11	Orlando Magic	Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky
12	Utah Jazz	Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey
13	Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards)	Timothe Luwawu, SG, France
14	Chicago Bulls	Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky
15	Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets)	Denzel Valentine, SF, Michigan State
16	Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks)	Taurean Prince, SF, Baylor
17	Memphis Grizzlies	Wade Baldwin IV, SG, Vanderbilt
18	Detroit Pistons	Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
19	Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers)	Ante Zizic, C, Croatia
20	Indiana Pacers	Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse
21	Atlanta Hawks	DeAndre' Bembry, SF, St. Joseph's
22	Charlotte Hornets	Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame
23	Boston Celtics	Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan State
24	Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami Heat)	Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State
25	Los Angeles Clippers	Caris LeVert, SG, Michigan
26	Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder)	Dejounte Murray, PG, Washington
27	Toronto Raptors	Patrick McCaw, SG, UNLV
28	Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers)	Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV
29	San Antonio Spurs	Cheick Diallo, PF, Kansas
30	Golden State Warriors	Thon Maker, PF, Australia

Ben Simmons, SF, LSU

Because Ben Simmons has arguably the highest ceiling in this draft, a tantalizing and unique skill set and was productive at LSU in his one season with the Tigers, it's easy to forget he is still a boom-or-bust prospect in this year's draft.

There are three main reasons for this:

1. His jump shot (or lack thereof)
2. Mediocre defense
3. Questions about his motivation and desire to be great

Simmons' shoddy jumper has been dissected more times than Dikembe Mutombo's Twitter prescience, so we'll avoid a lengthy dissertation here. Let's just leave it at this: Simmons only took three shots from beyond the arc this year, making one, and shot a woeful 31 percent on his jump shots, according to Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post.

Simmons isn't a great defender either.

While he does anticipate well and has good enough hands to register a fair amount of steals, he doesn't always seem interested in playing fundamental defense and often sacrifices positioning for steal attempts. He'll need to prioritize improving on the defensive end in the NBA, or he'll be a liability against the league's more athletic small forwards and bigger and more physical power forwards.

That questionable effort leads to perhaps the biggest question Simmons will have to answer at the NBA level: Does he want to be great?

Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com wrote, "There are concerns about an attitude that comes across as, in the words of one GM, prima donna, but there are concerns about anyone who would take his place at the top of the list."

So there's the bust potential. What's the boom?

Well, despite all of the above, Simmons still averaged 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.0 steals per game on a poor LSU team. His athleticism, size (6'10", 225 lbs, per Sports-Reference.com) and vision make him unique at the forward position, where he shows the ability to bang on the boards like a power forward and facilitate like a point guard.

He's effective at getting to the rim and beating defenders off the dribble, and he's basically impossible to stop in transition, as he can either finish at the basket or find his teammates. His unique skill set seems like the marriage of Draymond Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

He has the potential to be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, and if he develops anything close to a consistent jump shot in the mid-range, he'll be impossible to guard. He'll need a team to put shooters around him to maximize his skill set, but if Simmons lives up to his potential, he's the rare prospect who could affect the game in every single facet.

That's why he'll likely be the top overall pick despite a few glaring concerns.

Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky

Coming into the 2015-16 college basketball season, the hype wasn't focused on Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram like it is now. It was focused on Simmons and Skal Labissiere. And then Labissiere disappeared at Kentucky, averaging just 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds in 15.8 minutes per game. 

He showed flashes of his upside, of course. There was his showing of 26 points, five rebounds and two blocks against the New Jersey Institute of Technology in Kentucky's second game of the year. Or his 18 points, nine rebounds and six blocks against LSU in early March.

He has intriguing potential too. He has the size (6'11 ¾", 216 lbs, per DraftExpress), athleticism and outside shooting to be a dangerous stretch 4 in the NBA. He's already an excellent shot-blocker, and he'll protect the rim and rebound. 

But why did that upside fail to show itself in his freshman season? He often seemed to lack toughness and strength and may simply be outmuscled at the next level if he doesn't bulk up. For all of the questions about Simmons, for example, he still produced excellent numbers while basically having no help at LSU.

Seth Davis of CBS Sports thinks that makes Labissiere an overhyped player:

He is certainly a major project. He didn't seem to have a great feel for the college game at Kentucky, looking lost at times. But in the right system and with time to develop, he could become a star. That's the gamble teams outside of the top five will be weighing as they contemplate selecting Labissiere.

Cheick Diallo, PF, Kansas and Thon Maker, PF, Australia 

Welcome to the unknown.

You don't really know what you are getting with either of these players. Cheick Diallo lost the early portion of his season over an eligibility ordeal and was ultimately buried on Kansas' bench given the team's incredible depth. Thon Maker has never played above the high school level.

However, both are intriguing athletes and highly touted prospects who have the upside to be stars. It's just that teams will have little meaningful game action to study as they decide whether to select either. That's why both players will surely fall out of the lottery, and could even fall out of the first round altogether.

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