2016 NBA Mock Draft: Predictions for Where 1st-Round Prospects Will Land
Tuesday night's lottery eliminated the mystery surrounding which teams would own the most coveted picks in the 2016 NBA draft. Yet there are still more questions than answers about the order in which the top prospects will come off the board with about a month until teams make their selections.
LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram are both candidates to become the first overall pick. After that, there's a second wave of incoming rookies who don't have much separation between them, which should make for an entertaining draft night.
Let's check out an early projection for how things could play out at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on June 23. That's followed by a deeper dive into the first three players off the board.
First-Round Mock Draft
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons, PF, LSU |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke |
| 3. | Boston Celtics (from BKN) | Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma |
| 4. | Phoenix Suns | Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | Jamal Murray, PG, Kentucky |
| 7. | Denver Nuggets (from NYK) | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 8. | Sacramento Kings | Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette |
| 9. | Toronto Raptors (from DEN via NYK) | Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga |
| 10. | Milwaukee Bucks | Skal Labissiere, C, Kentucky |
| 11. | Orlando Magic | Jaylen Brown, SG, Cal |
| 12. | Utah Jazz | Denzel Valentine, SG, Michigan St. |
| 13. | Phoenix Suns (from WSH) | Taurean Prince, SF, Baylor |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan St. |
| 15. | Denver Nuggets (from HOU) | Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey |
| 16. | Boston Celtics (from DAL) | Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina |
| 17. | Memphis Grizzlies | Dejounte Murray, SG, Washington |
| 18. | Detroit Pistons | Cheick Diallo, PF, Kansas |
| 19. | Denver Nuggets (from POR) | Ante Zizic, C, Croatia |
| 20. | Indiana Pacers | Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt |
| 21. | Atlanta Hawks | Stephen Zimmerman, PF, UNLV |
| 22. | Charlotte Hornets | Malik Beasley, SG, Florida St. |
| 23. | Boston Celtics | Timothe Luwawu, SF, France |
| 24. | Philadelphia 76ers (from MIA via CLE) | Wade Baldwin IV, SG, Vanderbilt |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | Zhou Qi, C, China |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (from OKC via CLE/DEN) | Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (from CLE via BOS) | Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | Thon Maker, C, Australia |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | DeAndre' Bembry, SG, St. Joseph's |
Breaking Down Top Selections
1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, PF, LSU
Simmons seemed like a lock to go first overall when he arrived at LSU. While he's still likely to come off the board first, it's no longer a guarantee because of a season in which the Tigers failed to contend and he battled inconsistency with his jump shot.
It's an example of analysis fatigue, too. He spent every game in an immense spotlight. He carried so much hype, which made it easier to point out minor flaws in his games. That said, his overall skill set is still the most intriguing in the class.
He showcased an impressive combination of size, quickness and finishing ability while averaging 19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists during his only season at LSU. Josh Eberley of Today's Fastbreak highlighted the contrasting aspects of his draft stock:
The bottom line is it's rare to see a 6'10" player with his ability who can run the floor and distribute the basketball. Yes, his shooting needs work, and he must become more assertive at the next level. But the 76ers can't afford to pass up on a potential top-tier superstar.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke
Ingram may not possess the same level of upside as Simmons, but he's still a terrific prospect ready to step right into a rotation. In fact, given the increasing level of importance of perimeter shooting in today's NBA, it could be argued he's more prepared to make a splash as a rookie.
The biggest concern is the lack of bulk on his frame. He checked in at just 190 pounds during his time at Duke despite standing 6'9". He discussed his lack of concern about the situation with Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times back in March.
"I definitely hear that a lot," Ingram said. "I just look back and see how I put on 20 pounds when I first came here and know that I have another offseason to put on more weight. I know I'm dedicated to doing that, but what people don't see is I'm not just a twig. I'm actually pretty strong."
Surviving the grind of an 82-game NBA regular season without adding more power to his frame could be an uphill battle. That said, it's not uncommon for rookies to have that problem, and it's not something that significantly alters his long-term outlook.
The Lakers have some promising pieces in the likes of D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle. What they don't have right now is a go-to scorer. Ingram is capable of growing into the role and is a slam-dunk selection for L.A. at this spot.
3. Boston Celtics: Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
Hield is an explosive scorer with the ability to instantly improve a team's offensive arsenal. He averaged 25 points while shooting 50 percent from the field, including 46 percent from beyond the arc, during his senior campaign with the Sooners en route to the Naismith Trophy, among other individual honors.
His outside shooting appears to make him an ideal target for the Celtics. Boston finished fifth in the NBA in points per game despite ranking 28th in three-point shooting percentage. So the Oklahoma product could be the missing piece of the puzzle offensively.
It also helps that the Celtics have several other players capable of handling the ball, led by Isaiah Thomas. That means Hield wouldn't face the same heavy burden he did at Oklahoma. Still, despite the apparently seamless fit, Jeff Goodman of ESPN noted the other considerations:
Ultimately, it comes down to whether Boston wants the player who can help the most right now or one with the most long-term potential. After the Celtics finished fifth in the East this past season, it would be tough for them to pass on the instant contributions Hield can provide.
