Reaching Eastern Conference Finals Will Be Hollow Victory for Heat or Raptors
The basketball gods have turned the Miami Heat-Toronto Raptors series into a war of attrition.
Spotty offensive production has made this battle anything but easy on the eyes, and the first five games have proved even more taxing on the actual participants.
With the series shifting back to South Beach for Friday's Game 6, each club is scrambling to replace injured starters and struggling to jump-start its sputtering offensive attack.
One of these teams will emerge "victorious" eventually, but the real winner has already surfaced: the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who've been idle since securing their second consecutive playoff sweep on May 8.
Before Cleveland's 57-win season even started, 14 Bleacher Report experts predicted how this half of the bracket would play out, and 13 backed the Cavaliers. The lone dissenter, by the way, chose neither the Heat nor the Raptors but rather the Fred Hoiberg-led Chicago Bulls.
The Cavs' position atop the NBA's lesser half has only grown stronger over the past seven months. No East team could match their regular-season pace, and the gap between them and the others has widened since the 2016 playoffs tipped off.
"After two rounds, the Cavaliers couldn't have asked for a better beginning to their postseason," Bleacher Report's Greg Swartz wrote. "They've navigated their way to the conference finals in the lowest number of games necessary, the Big Three is clicking and three-point records are falling."
Cleveland's reward for such a dominant start? No less than a full week of rest before the start of the Eastern Conference Finals—perhaps even more if Miami extends its series to a seventh game.
The Raptors and Heat, on the other hand, are looking at 48 hours (at best) between the end of this round and the opening of the next. Further complicating that issue is the fact these teams desperately need time off after having played 12 grueling postseason games apiece.
The Raptors are already playing without starting center Jonas Valanciunas (sprained ankle) and could be missing starting small forward DeMarre Carroll, whom the team listed as questionable with a left wrist injury.
This series has also stripped the Heat of their interior anchor, Hassan Whiteside. According to Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press, Whiteside is listed as out for Game 6 (sprained MCL). And the Heat listed their own versatile forward, Luol Deng, as questionable with a bruised left wrist.
Miami, of course, is already playing without Chris Bosh, its regular-season scoring leader who was shelved by a second bout with blood clots.
And Toronto's top point producer, DeMar DeRozan, has posted some abysmal shooting numbers (34.6 percent from the field, 20.0 from range during the playoffs) while struggling to shake a nagging thumb ailment. The scoring guard is at least coming off his best playoff performance (34 points on 11-of-22 shooting). But he said after that outing his thumb felt "like a blowtorch on my hand," per Ethan J. Skolnick of the Miami Herald.
Injuries alone will tilt the third-round scales heavily in Cleveland's favor. But they're not the only problems plaguing the Cavs' next opponent.
The offensive spark that powered Miami to a 19-10 mark after the All-Star break flamed out early during this playoff run. The Heat opened the second season with back-to-back triple-digit-point efforts, but they have failed to clear the century mark in eight of their last 10 games—three of which featured an overtime period.
"I'm shocked at this point we haven't been able to score 100 points," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after Game 4. "That's not at all to discredit Toronto. ... We have not been able to consistently get to our game."
Outside of some Dwyane Wade heroics, the Heat haven't found many reliable scoring options. Goran Dragic, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng averaged a combined 46.2 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting after the All-Star break. During the second round, those numbers have tumbled to 38.8 and 39.9, respectively.
Toronto's offensive issues start at the top. Kyle Lowry has struggled just as much as his All-Star backcourt mate, hitting a grisly 33.5 percent from the field and only 22.5 percent outside.
Between the slumping guards and the injured bigs, Toronto has question marks surrounding its top four regular-season scorers. That it's still holding a 3-2 edge in this round shows just how much Miami is hurting.
"Both teams are probably searching to reach their true form," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said prior to Game 3.
It's impossible to imagine a playoff matchup with the habanero-hot Cavaliers would be the key to either club getting back on track.
Cleveland's 107.8 playoff scoring average sits more than 10 points above both Miami's (97.0) and Toronto's (93.3). The contributions of the Cavs' starters alone (84.1 points per game) put this club less than a stone's throw away from those total team outputs. Cleveland is averaging more three-point makes (16.8) than Miami and Toronto combined (13.5).
"The best hope of either the Heat or Raptors is that LeBron might injure himself, perhaps break a rib, belly-laughing so hard at the idea either could beat him and his Cavs right now," Greg Cote of the Miami Herald wrote.
Cleveland is playing a different caliber of basketball than the aesthetically unpleasing version put forth by Miami and Toronto. Mash these two depleted rosters into one, and the Cavs' position as heavy favorites still wouldn't change.
The Heat and Raptors still have something significant at stake. Toronto has never advanced beyond this round, and Miami is already having its best playoff run without LeBron James since 2006. The experience gleaned to this point has been invaluable, and anything further would only enhance its impact.
But that's the extent of consolation prizes still up for grabs. With injuries mounting and production sagging, the Heat and Raptors are seemingly left battling to be the Cavs' sacrificial lamb.
All quotes obtained firsthand, unless otherwise cited. Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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