2016 NBA Mock Draft: Predictions and High-Risk Prospects Who Will Be Taken Early
The NBA Draft Combine has begun, causing some basketball fans to shift their attention from the postseason toward the upcoming draft.
The combine will teach scouts a few things about the players who participate in it, but most of what they need to know has revealed itself in the game action we've already seen. It's never a good idea to set aside a player's basketball talents in favor of his physical attributes or interview skills.
Let's come up with a first-round mock draft and predict a few high-risk prospects that teams will scoop up early on draft night based on their potential.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons, F, LSU |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram, F, Duke |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | Dragan Bender, F, Croatia |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | Jaylen Brown, F, California |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Buddy Hield, G, Oklahoma |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | Kris Dunn, G, Providence |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | Furkan Korkmaz, G/F, Turkey |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | Skal Labissiere, F/C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | Timothe Luwawu, G/F, France |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Malik Beasley, G, Florida State |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards) | Henry Ellenson, F, Marquette |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | Marquese Chriss, F, Washington |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets) | Deyonta Davis, F/C, Michigan State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks) | Denzel Valentine, G/F, Michigan State |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | Demetrius Jackson, G, Notre Dame |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | Domantas Sabonis, F, Gonzaga |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers) | Tyler Ulis, G, Kentucky |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | Thon Maker, F/C, Australia |
| 21 | Atlanta Hawks | Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV |
| 22 | Charlotte Hornets | Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt |
| 23 | Boston Celtics | Caris LeVert, G, Michigan |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami Heat) | Wade Baldwin IV, G, Vanderbilt |
| 25 | Los Angeles Clippers | Brice Johnson, F, North Carolina |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder) | Malachi Richardson, G, Syracuse |
| 27 | Toronto Raptors | Taurean Prince, F, St. Joseph's |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers) | Dejounte Murray, G, Washington |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | Juan Hernangomez, F, Spain |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Malcolm Brogdon, G, Virginia |
Gambles Who Will Go Early
No. 9, Toronto Raptors: Skal Labissiere, F/C, Kentucky
Few prospects have seen their stock fall as far as Skal Labissiere's in the past six months. Heading into the 2015-16 season, he was billed as one of the best freshmen in the nation and someone who would contend for the No. 1 pick in June.
Fast-forward to May, and Labissiere isn't even close to being in the discussion for the top pick. He averaged 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds per game for Kentucky last season, numbers most people expected him to double.
So why is he still going to be drafted in the mid-lottery? One word: Potential.
There's going to be at least one front office that remembers what it thought of Labissiere at this point last year and will let that influence its decision on draft night. And it's not like he lost all of his skill; the 7'0" big man is still a fluid athlete with soft touch on his jump shot. When it came to a game setting against college players, though, he didn't look ready physically or mentally.
The Raptors have a solid team, but they should be looking to swing for the fences with this pick to close the gap between them and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. If Labissiere pans out in Toronto and can play next to Jonas Valanciunas in the frontcourt, he would make a good team great.
No. 13, Phoenix Suns: Henry Ellenson, F, Marquette
NBADraft.net compared Henry Ellenson to Brian Scalabrine and Brian Cardinal, yet most outlets project him as a lottery pick. Something doesn't add up there, since neither of the Brians ever averaged even 10 points or five rebounds per game in an NBA season.
It seems like most scouts who are high on Ellenson assume his strong shooting mechanics will help him develop into a three-point assassin, but he hasn't proved that yet. The Marquette forward made 0.9 triples per game from the college arc on a poor 28.8 percent success rate last season.
If Ellenson can't significantly improve on that mark, he still has some nice skills, but not nearly enough to warrant a lottery pick. He had the ball-handling chops to take rebounds coast to coast in college, but his mediocre athleticism ensures that won't be as easy in the NBA, though he is a strong post scorer.
Phoenix, lacking a starting-level power forward and without a notable up-and-comer at the position, could take a flier on Ellenson and his unique skill set. He and Alex Len could be a nice offense-defense combination in the frontcourt for the rebuilding Suns.
No. 14, Chicago Bulls: Marquese Chriss, F, Washington
Marquese Chriss has two skills that make him tantalizing to NBA scouts: jaw-dropping athleticism and a nice jump shot. That's it.
The 6'10" forward is about as raw a prospect as you can get. He's not a good rebounder, defender or passer yet, and he's more turnover-prone than you'd like for someone who isn't a primary ball-handler. He led the NCAA with 138 fouls last season, despite playing just 24.9 minutes per game.
But did I mention how high he jumps? Check out this amazing block, courtesy of Rivals.com's Eric Bossi:
The team that picks Chriss should have plans to utilize an uptempo offensive game plan, which seems to be what head coach Fred Hoiberg eventually wants to do with the Bulls. If the 18-year-old can assert himself as a power forward who stretches the floor effectively and consistently takes advantage of transition opportunities, all while learning better defensive fundamentals, he can become a valuable NBA player.
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