NBA Draft Lottery 2016: 1st-Round Odds and Mock Draft During the Combine
Not every NBA draft lottery is a make-or-break endeavor featuring one or two grand prizes. This year, however, falling down the order will particularly sting for downtrodden franchises needing a substantial boost.
Organizations who spent the season losing or laughing at an incompetent New York franchise will cross their fingers for the chance to snag LSU's Ben Simmons or Duke's Brandon Ingram. After that, the 2016 draft class offers more puzzle pieces than cornerstones.
As surmised by ESPN Insider Chad Ford, this will make the upcoming weeks of mocking even more cumbersome after projecting the top slots.
"By the time you get out of the top 10, you're mostly looking at potential rotation players," Ford wrote. "That means that we could see a very fluid Big Board after the top 10 leading up to draft day. Different teams have different players ranked in wildly different places. It's hard to find a consensus outside the top 10."
Without an established draft order, the top 10 also holds no certainty. Since chance is impossible to predict, let's take an early swing at the first round based on reverse standings. First, here's a look at the lottery odds courtesy of CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | 25% | 64.3% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | 19.9% | 55.8% |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | 15.6% | 46.9% |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | 11.9% | 37.8% |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.8% | 29.1% |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.3% | 21.5% |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | 4.3% | 15% |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | 1.9% | 6.8% |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | 1.9% | 6.8% |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1.8% | 6.5% |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards) | 0.6% | 2.2% |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| Pick | Team | Player |
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | F Ben Simmons, LSU |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | SF Brandon Ingram, Duke |
| 3. | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) | PF Dragan Bender, Croatia |
| 4. | Phoenix Suns | SF Jaylen Brown, California |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | SG Jamal Murray, Kentucky |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | SG Buddy Hield, Oklahoma |
| 7. | Denver Nuggets (via New York) | PF Henry Ellenson, Marquette |
| 8. | Sacramento Kings | PG Kris Dunn, Providence |
| 9. | Toronto Raptors (via Denver) | C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky |
| 10. | Milwaukee Bucks | C Jakob Poeltl, Utah |
| 11. | Orlando Magic | PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State |
| 12. | Utah Jazz | PG Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame |
| 13. | Phoenix Suns (via Washington) | SG Timothe Luwawu, France |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | F Marquese Chriss, Washington |
| 15. | Denver Nuggets (via Houston) | SG Furkan Korkmaz, Turkey |
| 16. | Boston Celtics (via Dallas) | SG Denzel Valentine, Michigan State |
| 17. | Memphis Grizzlies | PG Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt |
| 18. | Detroit Pistons | G Tyler Ulis, Kentucky |
| 19. | Denver Nuggets (via Portland) | F Taurean Prince, Baylor |
| 20. | Indiana Pacers | PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga |
| 21. | Atlanta Hawks | C Diamond Stone, Maryland |
| 22. | Charlotte Hornets | C Damian Jones, Vanderbilt |
| 23. | Boston Celtics | C Ante Zizic, Cibona Zagreb |
| 24. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami) | SG Malik Beasley, Florida State |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | PF Brice Johnson, North Carolina |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City) | G Caris LeVert, Michigan |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | PG Melo Trimble, Maryland |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland) | SG Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | F Juan Hernangomez, Spain |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | C Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV |
Analyzing Top Big Men
Gone are the days where the 7-foot behemoth towers over smaller prospects as the can't-miss pick. As the league continues to place more value on speed, athleticism and wingspan over height, big men have to earn their lottery-pick billing on more than physical stature.
NBA franchises now expect more from their giants than bulldozing post-up offense and rebounding. Can he shoot? Pass? Run the court? Provide all the desired offensive flexibility without sacrificing his defensive presence down low?
Contrary to the old guard's fears, big men are not going extinct. They're simply evolving. Giant dudes are still popular commodities if they possess the right skills, so these guys remain top-10 candidates.
Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia
This year's top international man of mystery, Dragan Bender, will draw easy comparisons to Kristaps Porzingis. After all, he's 7-foot, from a foreign country and has tantalizing upside as an outside scorer and interior defender. He's also gaining steam as a top-five selection who could go No. 3 depending on how the lottery unfolds.
The Croatian prospect isn't as crisp a shooter, but he has made progress with Maccabi Tel Aviv. In limited professional playing time, the 18-year-old flashed a well-rounded skill set uncommon for his size. The Vertical's Jonathan Givony highlighted Bender's flexibility and tenacity:
"Versatility has always been the key to Bender’s game. He was considered a non-shooter early in his career, yet continuously found ways to be productive with his passing, ball-handling and high basketball IQ. He plays with great confidence and does not hesitate to assert himself in games. Even when most young players would be comfortable parking in the corner and staying out of older teammates’ lanes, Bender comes into Euroleague games looking to make his presence felt.
Bender’s most underrated quality is his toughness. Some may look at his lanky frame and assume he’s just another soft European 7-footer who only wants to hide on the perimeter and jack up 3-pointers, but in reality that couldn’t be further from the truth.
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Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman pegged him as "a high-end role player" whose multitude of skills could vault him to an All-Star peak without excelling in one particular area. Although that doesn't exactly sound like a top-five profile, a weak batch of United States peers makes him a worthy high-end investment.
He won't be the savior New York Knicks fans hope they found in Porzingis, so Bender is best served by the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers avoiding a dip. He'd fit much better with the Boston Celtics or Minnesota Timberwolves, where he could accompany other talented young players rather than have to lift up a sullied franchise.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
A traditional center who might have gone higher years ago, Jakob Poeltl still shouldn't last beyond the top-10 picks.
Instead of leaving after serving his minimum college eligibility, he stayed in Utah and dominated as a sophomore. He quickly became the Utes' main attraction, registering 17.2 points per game on a 64.6 field-goal percentage. Per Sports-Reference.com, he posted a 31.1 player efficiency rating (PER) and 30.3 net rating.
While his 69.3 free-throw percentage seems insignificant, it represents a drastic improvement from his 44.4 clip garnered as a freshman. Barring a rule change, a liability from the charity stripe will get branded with a scarlet letter as more teams strategically foul poor shooters.
The 20-year-old is poised to become the first Austrian-born person to get drafted for and play in the NBA. Now it remains to be seen how his skills translate to the pro level. For all of his efficient scoring at Utah, Poeltl didn't exude much comfort away from the rim.
He could discover his best path to success by imitating Andrew Bogut, the last Utah prospect taken inside the top 10. Wasserman made the comparison, noting that "Poeltl should be capable of making his mark as a defender, passer and opportunistic, secondary scoring option."
He's not an elite athlete or someone who will dominate NBA centers with his back to the basket, but Poeltl will still find his niche and make an impact.
Skal Labissiere, C, Kentucky
Despite averaging 6.6 points per game off Kentucky's bench, Skal Labissiere bolted for the pros after his quiet freshman campaign. It looks like the gamble will pay off.
The 20-year-old center has made an indelible mark in the NBA Draft Combine, an event some top-tier prospects skip entirely. Having received little in-game time to display his skills, he has proven the perfect beneficiary for the showcase.
Scout.com's Evan Daniels passed along a gushing review from an evaluator in attendance on Thursday:
For a sense of what they saw, Ford shared a brief video of his deep-shooting prowess:
Described by Givony as wielding "one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in this class," Labissiere's jumper is something NBA teams dream about from a power forward or center. According to the Lexington Herald Ledger's John Clay, Kentucky head coach John Calipari expressed confidence in a lottery team realizing the potential gains from snagging the raw prospect:
"When he’s physically able to play in that league, he’s going to be one of those guys. And what I would tell any team, if he had stayed in school another year or two, he would have been the No. 1 pick. Because he’d have figured it out, he’d have blocked more shots, he’d have run better, he’d been more physical. So here’s what I tell you, in 2016, whatever pick you get becomes in 2019 or 2018, you get the No. 1 pick. Should you take him? That’s why he’s going to go in the lottery. Because they’re saying, you know what, if we waited a year or two and got him, he would be the No. 1 pick.
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One team is bound to swing for the fences rather than settle for a less exciting contributor. Owning a lottery pick because of the Knicks, the Toronto Raptors have the roster and organizational temperament to make the bold call.
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