What History Says About Leicester City's Chances of More Premier League Success

Moments of triumph are often fleeting, even in the case of Leicester City. Their Premier League win will take a while to sink in, but questions are already being asked of the Foxes’ staying power.

Can they take their shock streak and turn it into something more sustained? Are they here to stay? 

Of course, much of that depends on whether Leicester can keep hold of their best players over the summer.

Rui Vieira/Associated Press

Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, N’Golo Kante and Kasper Schmeichel, to name a few, have won plenty of admirers over the past nine months or so and will have their suitors ahead of the 2016/7 campaign.

Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri believes he can keep the core of his squad together.

Per the Press Association (h/t the Daily Mail), he said:

"

I want to enjoy but I feel it is possible maybe to keep all the players.

It is important for us but it is important also for them because they don’t know the Champions League.

If they go away, it is not good for them. It is much better if they improve another year here and then go wherever they want.

But I have said so many times if one player comes to me and says ‘Gaffer, I want to go’, then I leave him to go because it is okay.

"

Indeed, the attraction of UEFA Champions League football will prove valuable in not only persuading Leicester’s best players to remain at the King Power Stadium but also in luring new talent to the club. But even if Mahrez and others stay, can the Foxes really hope to replicate their astonishing achievement?

History sets a mixed precedent. Take Montpellier’s Ligue 1 triumph, for instance. La Paillade were perhaps the last club to truly upset the established order in any of European football’s so-called big leagues, winning the 2011/12 league championship with a golden generation of players.

With Olivier Giroud as their frontman, Montpellier became top-flight champions for the first time—just like Leicester this season.

Mel Evans/Associated Press

However, after their best players were poached by more illustrious clubs, Montpellier finished the following season in a lowly ninth position, failing to even qualify for Europe. The next season, they finished 15th, only avoiding relegation to the second tier by two points.

Wolfsburg upset the odds by winning the 2008/09 Bundesliga title, with Edin Dzeko their main protagonist as the giants of German football were beaten to the country’s biggest prize.

The Wolves' collapse in the following season was rather stark as well, however, and they finished in eighth position. The season after that, they finished fourth bottom, just two points above the drop zone. 

Of course, such history hardly suggests that Leicester will suffer the same fate next season. After all, there is no correlation between the Foxes, Wolfsburg and Montpellier. But such falterings illustrate just how difficult it can be for surprise league winners to maintain their success, swimming against the current until it eventually got too tiring. 

Off the pitch, Leicester have already made progress on securing their position as one of the biggest clubs in world football, with support for the Foxes growing immeasurably in Asia since the Thai takeover six years ago.

Thousands of fans in Bangkok watched Leicester City effectively clinch the Premier League title last week, depicting just how far the club has come in bolstering their global standing over the past year.

FABIAN BIMMER/Associated Press

Ranieri’s side will also participate in the money-spinning International Champions Cup tournament this summer, coming up against Celtic, Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain at venues all over the world. The Foxes are a big attraction right now, and the club are looking to make the most of that, plundering the game for as much money as possible.

Leicester already have Champions League revenue to boost the coffers next season, with the continent’s great and good set to visit the King Power Stadium after the summer. How the Foxes reinvest that cash will go some way to deciding whether they remain at the top end of the English game. 

Ranieri's side will surely find things a little tougher next season, with English football’s biggest clubs in something of a transition this year. Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United, in particular, have performed below their usual standards this season, but they will almost certainly enjoy a resurgence after the summer, with all three likely to appoint new managers. 

Arsenal, too, will be a top-four fixture, with Arsene Wenger now the most consistent manager in the Premier League, even if the Gunners harbour ambitions of more than just Champions League qualification.

Leicester therefore have three places in the top four to play for, narrowing the target that they can hit. 

Rui Vieira/Associated Press

That must be the level the east Midlands club must aim for. A successful defence of their title might be beyond them, but the Champions League is an attainable objective.

The Foxes now await the draw for next season’s group stage in anticipation as they are confronted with the reality of their new status.

Ranieri said of his side’s European prospects:

"

I am confident because this team two years ago won the Championship and the Championship is very, very tough.  

They run all the year and then I hope we can find good players and make some replacements because next season there will be three cups and the Premier League.

It will be very important to be able to make good changes and give some rest to the players.

I believe when there will be the draw for the (Champions League) group, other teams will want to play against us because we are in Europe for the first time and they think we are underdogs.

We are underdogs but we are dangerous. Underdogs can be dangerous teams.

"

But therein lies the challenge for Ranieri—can his Leicester side shake off their underdog tag? Precedent suggests not, but precedent also suggested that they couldn’t win the Premier League title.

The Foxes aren’t really ones for taking history too seriously.