Imagining Manchester United Next Season If Louis van Gaal Stays
Louis van Gaal's Manchester United future has been the subject of a great deal of speculation over the past few months. Leaving the rumours to one side, though, what might next season be like if he stays?
Would the manager be able to build on the few green shoots of progress that have been visible during the second half of the season, or would the regression that took place between the end of last season and the beginning of this repeat itself?
Would a few key signings transform United's attack, or would the conservatism that has defined this season continue to dominate?
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Let's take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios, presenting an argument for each.
The Best-Case Scenario
This argument relies on one key hypothesis: the notion that United have demonstrated considerable improvement since injuries to Anthony Martial, Will Keane, Wayne Rooney and Marouane Fellaini gave Marcus Rashford a route into the starting XI.
From that point forward, United have played 16 games, won 10, drawn three and lost three. With a little help from the incompetence of local rivals Manchester City, they have dragged themselves back into contention for a fourth-place finish in the Premier League. They have also booked themselves a place in the FA Cup final.
Those three losses came against Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League and Tottenham Hotspur and West Bromwich Albion in the league. Of those, only one could be considered dramatically below par. Wins have come at home to Arsenal and away to Manchester City and West Ham United. On balance, there are plenty of positives.
After the Liverpool in March defeat—arguably the emotional low point in United's recent run—Mark Thompson of football analytics website Every Team Needs A Ron wrote a detailed analysis of United's positional play.
His thesis was that while United's execution was flawed, there was significant evidence United's players were starting to get Van Gaal's system.
He wrote: "The main thing to take away is that a team of mostly young, often quite new, players managed to (largely) implement a quite sophisticated system that Van Gaal has been trying for months. All of that work in training in tactical sessions is starting to pay off in their understanding. "
This seemed counterintuitive at the time, but the results that have followed—Spurs aside—generally back up this opinion. So if the players are starting to understand Van Gaal's system a little more deeply, the best-case scenario could have a route to unfolding.
The first key issue to be addressed will be the transfer market. United would have to get a lot more right this summer than they have over the past couple. Of the six senior players added to the squad in summer 2015, only one has been an unqualified success.
Of the players signed in summer 2014, only Daley Blind has been a guaranteed starter this season—though Luke Shaw would likely have been had he not suffered a broken leg in September.
It is a poor hit rate. Fortunately, Van Gaal has been prepared to gamble on players emerging from the academy to cover some of the gaps. In doing so, he has happened upon three players who look like they could be a natural part of the first-team squad next season.
Rashford, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson and Timothy Fosu-Mensah are the standout players of the class of '16. The emergence of the two defenders, combined with Blind's unexpected success at centre-back, means the priorities in the transfer market are further upfield.
Assuming Van Gaal does not feel he can rely on Ander Herrera or Morgan Schneiderlin in midfield, a new option is needed there. Jesse Lingard cannot be the fulcrum of United's attacking midfield in any best-cast scenario—he simply does not have the chops for the role. Elsewhere, a right-winger to match Martial's impact on the left would be a big asset.
The best-case scenario would see players continuing to buy into Van Gaal's approach, becoming emotionally invested in his final season being a success. It would see Van Gaal with a midfield and defence he can trust, meaning an end to his insistence on playing two holding midfielders, even against sides committed to defending in deep narrow lines.
That decision, made over and over again, is arguably the one that has cost United the most this season. Its results can be seen in the the six 0-0 draws at Old Trafford and the inability to beat any of the teams ranked between 18th and 14th in the league on the road.
There would have to be a more attacking setup on a more regular basis. This would allow the young players who have emerged to express their abilities, as well as their gratitude to the manager who gave them their chances on the pitch. More senior players would provide a steady hand when the youngsters hit inevitable dips of form.
It would see the improvements that have emerged in United's positional play as the season has progressed result in more fluid attacking football. There could be a momentum to that, and Van Gaal could point to his successes and galvanise those players in the squad who believe in him.
It is not impossible. However, let's take a look at an alternative outcome.
The Worst-Case Scenario
Central to the thesis that Van Gaal may have earned himself another season in charge at Old Trafford is the notion that United finish fourth or better in the league, ensuring another season in the UEFA Champions League. If they do, however, it will be in significant measure down to the collapse in form of Manchester City.
That collapse should be a warning to United's board of the detrimental impact a lame-duck manager can have.
Manuel Pellegrini is a likable figure. Back in February, Joe Hart said, per the Press Association (h/t the Guardian): "We are a professional group. We really enjoy playing under Manuel. He has been a top manager for us. His man-management has been something that I personally have really enjoyed, so we are going to look to give him the best send-off, what he deserves."
What has come to pass has been very different. Since Hart made those comments, City's league form would have them 10th in the division, per Statto.com. They made it to the semi-final of the Champions League, but their displays against Real Madrid were atrocious.
Knowing a new manager is on his way, City's players have, it would seem, at least partially downed tools.
Pellegrini appears well-liked. Van Gaal, on the other hand, has a history of spectacularly falling out with those charges he does not perceive to be following his orders.
Imagine the kind of chaos that could follow if his status as a lame duck moves from assumed—as it has been for much of the second half of this season—to guaranteed?
Of course, given the past couple of seasons, there is plenty of evidence to suggest the transfer window will not provide a cure for all United's ills. There is at least as much chance the club would get the majority of their business wrong as they would right.
Should that come to pass, another season of ridiculously conservative football could follow. Another season of bemoaning the state of fans' expectations, as he did at the recent end-of-season awards, per BBC Sport. Another season of United creating few chances and offering little to nothing in the way of entertainment value.
An unsuccessful start would see immense pressure put on Van Gaal. He is deeply unpopular with United's fans—witness the replies to anything tweeted from the club's official account or endless conversations between people gathering before and after games.
Full-scale mutiny has only ever peeked through the cracks at Old Trafford. It was heard when Martial was taken off the pitch against CSKA Moscow in November and when Memphis Depay's shot against Sheffield United in January was greeted with a sarcastic standing ovation given how little attacking impetus the Red Devils had shown up to that point.
However, if next season starts poorly, even Old Trafford might turn. The frustration is just under the surface. Rebellion would not come as a shock. A toxic, Arsenal-like atmosphere could emerge, leading to a downward spiral in performances.
Ultimately, neither the best- nor worst-case scenario is likely to play out in full—there is plenty of middle ground between them.
However, of the two, based on the evidence of what has happened so far, the worst-case scenario looks much more likely to come to pass.
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