Man City's Champions League Hopes Under Severe Threat Ahead of Guardiola Arrival

Manchester City’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal in Manuel Pellegrini’s final home match in charge proved to be a microcosm of their season—momentary reminders of what they’re capable of at their best, punctuated by some deep, underlying issues that continue to hold them back.

They started aggressively, taking the game to the Gunners, pressing high and hard and producing some quick, inventive passing.

Sergio Aguero scored a superb left-foot volley, his 29th of the season in all competitions, and Arsenal were on the back foot, unable to cope with the pressure. If only they could have played like this all season; Leicester City wouldn't have been allowed to wrap up the title with two games to spare.

But as has been the case so often this season, they couldn't maintain their best. Minutes later, they had been pegged back, Olivier Giroud scoring too easily with a header from a corner. Eliaquim Mangala, whose place in the squad is surely up for debate going into next season, came to win the header and was nowhere near it—yet another poor piece of defensive play from this soft-centred City side.

The brilliance of Kevin De Bruyne saw them go back ahead, but again they were opened up too easily as Alexis Sanchez equalised having played a one-two with Giroud.

City's moments of fine attacking football were undone by a lack of solidity—their season defined by one match. 

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The boss watching his best moments in charge of #mcfc...  https://t.co/2hVReYBRyf

— Manchester City FC (@MCFC) May 8, 2016"

They failed to get the result they wanted; UEFA Champions League qualification is no longer in their hands.

There’s now a real chance their awful Premier League campaign could finish in ultimate failure, with Pellegrini's tenure ending in the most disappointing way imaginable. For this side to fail to mount a title challenge is bad enough. No top four? That's unforgivable.

If Manchester United win their final two matches, at West Ham United and then at home to Bournemouth on the final day of the season, it is they, not City, who will compete in Europe’s elite competition next season.

Given the holes in the United squad and the mismanagement at Old Trafford, it’s remarkable they are in the driving seat, well-placed to force this City side out of the top four for the first time this season right at the death.

PAUL ELLIS/Getty Images

“We deserve to be in the Champions League next year,” Pellegrini said afterwards. “We have (been) 37 (league) games in the spot of Champions League and we don’t want to lose that spot. I trust we are going to have our achievement on Sunday.”

A UEFA Europa League campaign in Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge is not what the club wanted or expected at the start of the season. They must surely now be planning for every eventuality, though, with United capable of taking six points from six, despite their clear limitations.

Pellegrini’s after-match farewell was muted. The vast majority of the fans had left the Etihad Stadium before he returned to the field to say goodbye.

Given he’s won three trophies in his three years in the job, it says a lot about just how bad his side have been for much of this season that his send-off was so low key—a far cry from two years ago when he was being thrown up and down by his triumphant players in City’s final home game having delivered the club’s first league-and-cup double.

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Manuel Pellegrini: “It's been three wonderful years - unforgettable. Thank you to the fans, I'll never forget you." pic.twitter.com/8SOAQkn6zH

— Premier League (@premierleague) May 8, 2016"

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Watch Manuel Pellegrini address the press following #cityvafc. #mcfc  https://t.co/LNxLcu7atA

— Manchester City FC (@MCFC) May 8, 2016"

However, since then, they’ve been in decline. The wonderful, free-flowing football that defined his first year in charge is now only achieved in fits and starts.

Their Capital One Cup win this season was welcome, and their progression to the semi-final of the Champions League deserves great credit, but the City side we’ve seen for much of the last 18 months has been nowhere near good enough given the quality at Pellegrini's disposal.

Of course, it isn't all his fault. The players must take a share of the blame, as do members of City's leadership team who have underperformed. Recruitment since their first title win 2012 hasn't been good enough and it caught it up with them a while ago.

City's first team have been drifting for a while now, even if every other aspect of the club is developing superbly.

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"We love you guys!"

Joe Hart thanks the #mcfc fans for their continued support. https://t.co/LyQx4jXLr0

— Manchester City FC (@MCFC) May 8, 2016"

That will surely change this summer, with Guardiola's arrival likely to galvanise the players already there and initiate a recruitment drive designed to make up for lost time.

City will spend big, with a manager known for getting the best out of the players handed to him ready to reshape a squad that has lost its way rather badly.

The first chapter of the Sheikh Mansour era is now over. Roberto Mancini and then Pellegrini have delivered domestic success. Both had their faults, but the progress City have made since 2010 has been remarkable.

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An emotional Manuel Pellegrini addresses the fans following his final home game in charge of #mcfc. https://t.co/szlyN1AKVQ

— Manchester City FC (@MCFC) May 8, 2016"

It's now time for a new phase, led by a manager every club in the world wanted to entice. The big problem for Guardiola, though, is his first year may be spent playing Europa League football, something he would surely not have expected when his appointment was announced in February.

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2015/16 season. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @RobPollard.