Analysing the Impact of Ilkay Gundogan's Knee Injury on Borussia Dortmund

When Borussia Dortmund announced on Friday that midfielder Ilkay Gundogan had dislocated his kneecap in team training, it was a shock on a number of levels.

First and foremost, it's a personal tragedy.

Having overcome a career-threatening back injury that had kept him off the field for 14 months between August 2013 and October 2014, the Germany international returned to his world-class form with an impressive campaign pulling the strings in Dortmund's midfield. The 25-year-old, who already missed the 2014 FIFA World Cup, was set to be a big part of the Germany squad at UEFA Euro 2016 in France.

Dortmund will miss their No. 8 in the DFB-Pokal final against Bayern Munich on May 21, and it's possible he's played his last game for them.

VI-Images/Getty Images

As Gundogan announced on his Facebook page, there's no telling how long he'll be out with his knee injury: "To feel sorry for oneself has never been the best solution. After the first shock about the diagnosis it only helps to look forward in a positive way to get fit as soon as possible again."

A report from Dirk Krampe of local paper Ruhr Nachrichten (link in German) suggests the midfielder will have to undergo surgery and a lengthy period of rehabilitation that could last up to five months, meaning Gundogan would be lucky to return to the pitch in October.

Dortmund have done OK without Gundogan this season, winning seven of eight Bundesliga matches, with the lone defeat coming at the weekend against Eintracht Frankfurt. They did, however, miss his calming influence in the highly emotional tie with Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League. Gundogan was on the field for only eight minutes in the second leg.

It goes without saying that the midfield maestro is a big loss for the cup final against Bayern, but the long-term implications of his knee injury could be even more severe.

Gundogan's lengthy absence casts a large shadow over his expected move to Manchester City.

According to a report in Monday's edition of German sport magazine Kicker, the Citizens' last offer for Gundogan stood at €25 million. Seeing as his contract at the Westfalenstadion is set to expire in 2017 and he will miss a good chunk of next season, it seems unlikely that City would still be willing to splash that kind of cash on the midfielder.

PATRIK STOLLARZ/Getty Images

Gundogan himself is in an awkward position: It appears he doesn't want to leave the club on a free transfer—otherwise he wouldn't have extended his contract for one year in 2015—but he might also not want to join another club while he's injured. He would have to make up a lot of ground at a new club with a new coach.

However, Dortmund have already indicated they want a long-term solution to the Gundogan saga that has gone on for the better part of two years now. Head coach Thomas Tuchel told German broadcaster Sky before the Frankfurt match that the 25-year-old will only stay at Dortmund if he commits to the club.

Another one-year extension seems out of the question. Since the club can't force the player to leave, though, it could get ugly. Dortmund's options are limited: They either have to agree to sell a world-class midfielder at a giveaway price, or they have to let him go on a free transfer next year.

It's possible, of course, that Gundogan could leave in the January transfer window, especially if Dortmund leave him off the squad list for the UEFA Champions League group stage—thus making him eligible to play for his new club in the knockout stages—but they wouldn't get much money for him six months before his contract runs out.

The newest chapter in the Gundogan saga is a sad one. Both the player and his club, it seems, can only lose.

Lars Pollmann is a featured columnist writing on Borussia Dortmund. He also writes for YellowWallPod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.