The Complete Guide to UFC 198: Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic
On Saturday night, May 14, at UFC 198, the promotion makes its first trip to Curitiba, Brazil, the eighth-largest city, with a stacked card featuring the cream of its Brazilian stars.
From top to bottom, UFC pay-per-view events don't get any better than this.
In the main event, heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum makes the first defense of the title he won against Cain Velasquez last June. He faces American wrestler Stipe Miocic in one of the best matchups in the division.
For Werdum, a win here would cement his legacy as an all-time great heavyweight and, with wins over Fedor Emelianenko, Velasquez and a defense of the UFC title, perhaps even the greatest of them all.
The co-main event features a middleweight clash between Brazilian veterans Vitor Belfort and Jacare Souza. Both are nearing the end of their long careers and desperately need wins to stick around the elite of the division. With a rematch between Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman set for UFC 199 next month, the winner will likely stake his claim as the next contender.
The card remains compelling even after the co-main. Cris Cyborg, the best female fighter on the planet, makes her UFC debut against Leslie Smith at a 140-pound catchweight. A light heavyweight scrap between the rising Corey Anderson and former champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua opens the main card.
Anderson Silva's gallbladder issue scrapped a scheduled fight between him and Uriah Hall at the last minute, which would have made this card even more outstanding. A barnburner of a prospect matchup takes its place as Warlley Alves meets Bryan Barberena.
The prelims are stacked as well. Demian Maia makes his case for a title shot against Matt Brown in the Fox Sports 1 headliner, while Antonio Rogerio Nogueira meets Patrick Cummins in the Fight Pass main event. John Lineker takes on Rob Font in a bantamweight barnburner that has to be the favorite for Fight of the Night.
Every fight on this card is worth the viewer's time. Let's take a look at each of them.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Featherweights
Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3; 3-0 UFC) vs. Renato Moicano (9-0-1; 1-0 UFC)
A strong matchup of talented featherweights opens the Fight Pass portion of the card as Chechnya's Zubaira Tukhugov takes on Brazil's Renato Moicano. Tukhugov took a decision from Phillipe Nover last December to run his winning streak to three, while Moicano defeated Tom Niinimaki in December 2014 in his only UFC appearance.
Tukhugov is well-rounded and highly athletic. He has a kick-heavy game at range that he pairs with strong counterpunching combinations, strong defensive wrestling and the occasional takedown, but he doesn't produce much volume.
Moicano is long for the division at 5'11", and he uses it well with straight punches and cracking kicks on the feet. Like Tukhugov, counters are a specialty. He's most dangerous as a grappler though, and he has a knack for getting the back.
Prediction: While Moicano hasn't fought in some time, he works at a much quicker pace and is substantially more dangerous on the mat. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Sergio Moraes (10-2; 4-1 UFC) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1; 0-0 UFC)
Brazil's Luan Chagas steps up on short notice to replace The Ultimate Fighter 21 winner Kamaru Usman against Sergio Moraes—a contestant on the first season of TUF Brazil. Chagas has compiled a strong record against good regional competition in Brazil in just shy of four years as a professional, while Moraes has now won four in a row since losing to Cezar Ferreira in June 2012.
The 22-year-old Chagas is a talented youngster. He packs real power on the feet and moves smoothly between kicks and punches, but does his best work on the mat, particularly with getting to the back in scrambles. Moraes is a legitimately world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and backs that up with an awkward but surprisingly dangerous striking game.
Prediction: If Chagas had more than two weeks to prepare, he might have had a good shot at pulling off the upset. As it stands though, Moraes should be able to get this to the mat and finish. He submits Chagas in the second round.
Light Heavyweights
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7; 4-4 UFC) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-3; 4-3 UFC)
The less celebrated of the Nogueira brothers headlines the Fight Pass portion of the card against the American Patrick Cummins. Antonio Nogueira has lost two in a row, falling first by knockout to Anthony Johnson and then by decision to Shogun Rua last August. Cummins too is trying to get back on track after a knockout loss to Glover Teixeira in November.
This is essentially Nogueira's last chance to stay relevant at 205 pounds, while Cummins would notch the biggest name win of his career with a victory here.
The American was an elite wrestler, and that's still the basis of his game. He doesn't have the most explosive shot, but once he gets in on the hips, he chains a slick variety of singles, doubles and trips until he gets the takedown. Moving from striking to wrestling and vice versa is a specialty, and he can drop bombs from top position.
Nogueira offers a strong combination of boxing and BJJ. The southpaw works behind a crisp jab and straight left, though he could stand to throw more volume. Sweeps from the half guard are a specialty on the mat, and he's a solid defensive wrestler to boot.
Prediction: Nogueira doesn't have much left in the tank. Cummins might eat a few shots, but he'll repeatedly get Nogueira to the mat and control him to take a clear decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Bantamweights
John Lineker (26-7; 7-2 UFC) vs. Rob Font (12-1; 2-0 UFC)
A bantamweight barnburner opens the Fox Sports 1 portion of the event. Brazil's John Lineker moved up from 125 pounds last September and engaged in a brawl for the ages with Francisco Rivera to run his current winning streak to three. Rob Font has finished both of his UFC wins. The Massachusetts native returned from an 18-month layoff to knock out Joey Gomez in January.
The bantamweight division is in the midst of a turnover right now as young talent moves up, and the winner will stake a strong claim to a spot in the new top 10.
Lineker is an iron-chinned, brick-fisted brawler. While short for the division at 5'3", his constant stream of punches, big power for 135 pounds and solid footwork make up for it. He's one of the most dedicated body punchers in MMA and mixes his shots up beautifully. Competent defensive wrestling and a slick guillotine add an additional threat, but for the most part, Lineker wants to be in the pocket winging punches.
Font is taller at 5'8" but is also an accomplished puncher. He likes to use his jab along with straight and round kicks at range that play off his height, and when he pressures his opponent to the fence, he then unloads vicious combinations. Technically sound takedowns add another dimension to his game.
Prediction: If Lineker can get inside Font's reach, he can overwhelm the taller fighter with combinations in the pocket. But if it stays at range, then Font should chew him up with kicks and straight punches. The American is hardly helpless in the pocket, either. Font takes a decision in a back-and-forth banger.
Middleweights
Thiago Santos (12-3; 4-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (34-15-2; 12-8 UFC)
Up-and-coming Brazilian Thiago Santos takes on the veteran Nate Marquardt in an excellent middleweight scrap. Santos has won three straight, including a mature decision win over Canadian prospect Elias Theodorou in December. Marquardt has been on a brutal run of late, compiling a 2-5 record in his last seven, but he knocked out C.B. Dollaway in his last outing to right the ship.
Santos is a skilled striker. At 6'0" and 183 pounds, he has fight-ending power in every shot he throws. He likes to switch stances and is equally dangerous from both sides, but either way, the left kick is his go-to weapon. Along with outstanding takedown defense, that's the extent of his game.
Marquardt is years past his prime, but he's still dangerous. He's at his best working behind a stiff jab and hard kicks at range and then picking his opponent off with counters. Good all-around wrestling skills and a dangerous submission game complete the package. The big issue now is durability: Marquardt struggles to take punches.
Prediction: Marquardt is skilled enough to make this interesting as a striking bout, but the most likely scenario involves Santos catching him with a big punch or kick. Santos finds the knockout shot in the first round.
Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (19-4; 9-3 UFC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (12-3, 1 N/C; 3-3, 1 N/C UFC)
Talented lightweights meet in an excellent matchup at 155 pounds. Brazil's Francisco Trinaldo has quietly strung together five straight wins in the UFC—a streak he capped with a decision over Ross Pearson in January. Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros rebounded from a knockout loss to Dustin Poirier by taking a tight decision over John Makdessi last December. If Trinaldo wins, he'll likely get a top-15 opponent.
Despite his 37 years of age, Trinaldo remains an excellent athlete with great speed and power. The southpaw mostly prefers to strike, winging potent punch-kick combinations at range, but he also boasts an excellent top game.
The 5'10" Medeiros is a striker by trade who puts his long reach to good use with a consistent jab and heavy right hand. He carries real power in his punches and can finish with a sneaky guillotine choke at any time on the mat.
Prediction: This is a close fight. Medeiros' length and ability to use it will make it tough for the shorter Trinaldo (5'9") to find his range on the feet, while the Hawaiian's takedown defense ensures that this will probably be a striking matchup. Still, Trinaldo is more polished and a bit quicker. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Demian Maia (22-6; 16-6 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (20-13; 13-7 UFC)
A fantastic welterweight matchup crowns the televised prelims. Since a loss to Rory MacDonald two years ago, Demian Maia has won four in a row, the most recent a decision over Gunnar Nelson. Matt Brown went on an epic seven-fight winning streak between 2012 and 2014, but lost a pair after that to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. He bounced back with a win over Tim Means last July.
With a win here, Maia would make a case for a title shot in the wild and weird welterweight division, which lacks a clear-cut contender. Brown is further away from the top, but a win over Maia would keep him in the top 10 and in fights with elite opposition.
Maia has rededicated himself to his core skills in recent years. The southpaw pressures from the opening bell, using his surprisingly sharp straight left to cover his forward movement, clinch entries and level changes. He's a strong and technically sound chain wrestler, while on the mat his skills are otherworldly.
Brown is a classic, pathologically aggressive pressure fighter. He works his way forward, slinging hard right hands and kicks to the head and body while he forces his opponent toward the fence. Once he reaches the cage, Brown dives into the clinch, where he mixes in knees, elbows and trips in bewildering and technically sound varieties. He's a competent defensive wrestler and a solid grappler as well.
Prediction: Brown has to survive the first two rounds and make Maia work while he does so. The Brazilian's cardio hasn't been impressive in the last several years, while Brown remains exceptionally durable and dedicated to wearing out his opponent with his pace and attrition.
Still, the more likely scenario involves Maia getting in on his takedown chains and working to Brown's back on the mat. Even if Maia doesn't finish, that kind of fight won't wear him out, and he could easily take a decision in that situation. The pick is Maia by submission in the first round.
Shogun Rua vs. Corey Anderson
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Light Heavyweights
Shogun Rua (23-10; 7-8 UFC) vs. Corey Anderson (8-1; 5-1 UFC)
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua attempts to make one more run to the top of the division against The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Corey Anderson.
The 34-year-old Brazilian has been on a rough run for the last several years. He is 2-4 in his last six, and his only wins in that stretch are over James Te Huna and the similarly aged Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Still, he remains dangerous and retains a great deal of name value.
Anderson has evolved rapidly since winning TUF just shy of two years ago. Only one loss mars his UFC record, a knockout at the hands of Gian Villante. Since then, he has taken three in a row. Tom Lawlor and Fabio Maldonado were his most recent victims.
In his younger years, as the 22-year-old phenom who ran through the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, Rua was a marvel of speed, power and athleticism who fought with reckless abandon.
That fighter is gone today. Repeated injuries to his knees have robbed him of his athletic gifts, and his game has evolved over the years from berserker aggression to a more refined but still dangerous package.
Striking remains the core of Rua's approach. He probes behind an extended lead hand and occasional jabs as he pressures, but his bread and butter consists of vicious right kicks to the legs and body and a potent right hand that he throws as an overhand or uppercut. Counters and exchanges in the pocket are his specialties, though he's far from a defensive mastermind, and he relies heavily on his durability.
Power is the last thing to go for aging fighters, and Rua still has that in spades. He's not particularly quick anymore, though, and his pace isn't exactly blazing, either. He can operate indefinitely while things are under control, but how he reacts when pressured and forced to work is another story.
While Rua is known as a striker, he has always been a surprisingly effective wrestler with a proficient arsenal of singles, doubles and trips. From top position, he's one of the most dangerous ground strikers in the history of the sport, with great posture and serious power, though he's not much of a submission threat.
Defensive wrestling has never been Rua's strong suit, and that remains the case now. He makes up for it somewhat with an active sweep game, particularly from the deep half guard, but he remains vulnerable to strong wrestlers.
Anderson is a big, athletic and rapidly improving young fighter. The 26-year-old trains under Mark Henry, the boxing coach of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, who has instilled a strong command of striking fundamentals in his young charge.
Consistent movement, sound footwork and a steady stream of volume define Anderson's game on the feet. He consistently jabs to make the best use of his 79-inch reach, and he follows with hard low kicks. Head-body combinations fly fast and furious, and while he isn't a powerful puncher, he has quick hands and drowns his opponent in a steady stream of volume. Surprisingly smooth counters make him difficult to pressure.
The real core of Anderson's game remains his wrestling and clinch work. He excels at punching his way into the clinch, where his height (6'3") gives him great leverage for control while he lands knees and short punches. Transitioning from striking to takedowns isn't yet his strong suit, but once he gets in on a takedown, he's a strong chain-wrestler.
From top position, Anderson maintains a heavy base and drops bombs. He has only a basic submission game, but his control and striking are enough to eat up rounds.
Whether he's on the feet, in the clinch or on the mat, Anderson constantly forces his opponent to work. That commitment to attrition is his strongest weapon.
Betting Odds
Anderson -240, Rua +200 (bet $100 to win $200).
Prediction
There are two likely outcomes in this fight. In the first, Shogun lands a heavy punch or kick and follows with ground strikes to put Anderson down. In the second, Anderson's volume on the feet and tireless wrestling game combine to outwork Shogun for three rounds to take a decision.
The second scenario is more probable. Anderson is bigger, stronger, faster and works at a much quicker pace on the feet, and there's no reason to think that the 6'1" Shogun can stuff all of Anderson's takedowns. The American will eat a few big shots, but he'll take a comfortable decision.
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Cris Cyborg vs. Leslie Smith
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Catchweight, 140 pounds
Cris Cyborg (15-1, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC) vs. Leslie Smith (8-6-1; 2-2 UFC)
Cris Cyborg has been the most feared fighter in women's MMA for most of the last decade, and she finally makes her UFC debut at a 140-pound catchweight against the American Leslie Smith. While a long-rumored fight against Ronda Rousey would have been a much bigger payday for Cyborg, getting into the world's biggest promotion is still a huge step for the dynamic Brazilian.
Cyborg hasn't lost since her professional debut and hasn't seen the judges' scorecards since 2008. Since then, she has finished each of her nine wins in impressive fashion.
This is a huge opportunity for Smith, who has alternated wins and losses in four UFC appearances. She returned from a 16-month layoff to take a decision over Rin Nakai in March.
Smith is a brawler by trade, but one with a measure of technical skill. She works behind a consistent jab that plays off her 5'9" height and then wades forward behind wild punching combinations and the occasional kick. Head-body sequences come at a rapid pace, and while she doesn't pack much power, she's perfectly capable of burying her opponents with offensive output.
Defense is an issue, though. Smith is always there to be hit and doesn't provide much incentive for her opponents not to hit her in the face. Decent takedown defense mostly keeps her standing, and she has a reasonable command of defensive grappling, but that's the extent of her game.
While Cyborg is known for her power and physicality, her technical acumen should not be underestimated. Her jab is crushing and constant, and she backs that up with potent punching combinations as she moves forward. She's surprisingly slick on the counter, however, and moves her head consistently as she throws. Every strike carries crushing force and can end the fight at any time.
As good as she is at range, Cyborg is even better in the clinch. Her strength is overwhelming, and she excels at transitioning between the double-collar tie, frames and underhooks from which she can throw a steady stream of potent knees. It's hard to overstate how physical and dangerous Cyborg is on the inside.
Strong hips and technical defensive wrestling keeps Cyborg standing, while the occasional body-lock takedown adds another dimension for opponents to worry about. She's dangerous from the top, where her power translates into fight-ending ground striking.
At this stage, it's hard to point to any aspect of Cyborg's game as a weakness. She hits hard, doesn't seem to run out of gas as the fight goes on, is defensively sound and can operate both standing and on the ground.
Betting Odds
Cyborg -1,700, Smith +1,100.
Prediction
This is going to be a drubbing of epic proportions. Smith is durable but defensively lacking, which is the perfect recipe for Cyborg to style on her at range and especially in the clinch. The American's toughness will help her last awhile, but eventually a stream of knees and punches will finish this in the first or second round.
Warlley Alves vs. Bryan Barberena
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Welterweights
Warlley Alves (10-0; 4-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (11-3; 2-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 winner Warlley Alves might be the most promising prospect in Brazil. The 25-year-old has won all four of his UFC outings—three of them by submission—and most recently took out talented wrestler Colby Covington at UFC 194 in December.
Bryan Barberena put himself on the map with a submission win over the highly touted Sage Northcutt in January, but he's definitely the B-side of this matchup against the quick-rising Alves.
Barberena is a tough, rugged and well-rounded fighter who pushes a great pace. The southpaw throws a steady stream of hard low kicks and then looks to punch his way into the clinch, where he puts his size and strength to good use against the cage. He's competent on top, with hard strikes and basic submissions.
Alves is a hyper-athletic and aggressive fighter. He likes to pressure his opponent toward the fence while throwing an array of round and spinning kicks, and then unload punching combinations or work into the clinch. He has a strong takedown game, but the best part of his arsenal are lethal chokes in transitions, particularly his guillotine.
Betting Odds
Alves -550, Barberena +425.
Prediction
If Barberena can push this late into the second and third round, he should have a substantial edge in cardio as the fight goes on. Before then, however, he has to deal with an opponent who has substantial technical and athletic edges everywhere. Alves submits the American in the second round.
Jacare Souza vs. Vitor Belfort
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Middleweights
Jacare Souza (22-4, 1 N/C; 5-1 UFC) vs. Vitor Belfort (25-11; 14-7 UFC)
Two Brazilian veterans meet in a compelling co-main event. Jacare Souza had strung together eight consecutive wins, including five in the UFC, since a loss to Luke Rockhold in Strikeforce back in 2011 that cost him his title. He fell short against Cuban Yoel Romero at UFC 194 in December, however, and the 36-year-old now looks to get back on track.
Vitor Belfort is now 39 and approaching the 20-year anniversary of his pro MMA debut. He has been up and down in that time but has been on an excellent run in recent years. His only losses in the last nine years have come at the hands of Chris Weidman, Jon Jones and Anderson Silva, with the most recent a drubbing at Weidman's hands last May. Belfort got back on track by knocking out Dan Henderson last November.
With both fighters now in their late 30s, the loser will effectively be done as an elite middleweight, while the winner will get another crack at the elite in a division that lacks clear-cut contenders.
Souza is a pressure fighter by nature. Everything he does depends on slowly but methodically cutting off his opponent's escape angles and forcing him toward the cage.
To that end, Souza employs tight footwork, a hard right round and front kick and steady work to the body. A probing lead hand measures the distance before he commits to a strike. Every shot carries serious power, though he doesn't throw much volume, and he stays defensively sound as he pressures.
The whole point of that striking work, as dangerous as it can be, is to open up the clinch and shot entries for Souza. He has a slick array of trips in the clinch, excels at working to the back on the feet, and has an explosive and technically sound double. He's not easy to take down, either.
Souza remains one of the best grapplers in MMA and has perhaps the best top game in the history of the sport. His passes are impossibly smooth and his base unmovable. Once he gets on top, he's not going anywhere. Vicious strikes open up passes and submission attempts, particularly the arm triangle. Getting to the back is another specialty, and he excels at wearing his opponents down mentally and physically.
On the downside, Souza is getting older. He's still fast and explosive, but less so than he was in his younger years, and his chin has never been iron. Volume isn't his strong suit, and he'll always be vulnerable to opponents who work fast.
Belfort has been many different fighters during his years in the sport, but his exceptional physical gifts have remained constant. He's exceptionally fast, packs incredible power and has the killer instinct to finish any hurt opponent in the blink of an eye.
Striking is Belfort's wheelhouse. The southpaw operates at the farthest possible range and barely throws anything, but picks his spots to either commit to counters when his opponents try to cover the distance or try to explode forward into a lethal kick or flurry of punches. Spinning kicks add some variety, but the straight left and left high kick are his bread and butter.
That's the extent of Belfort's game. His speed and power are shocking, and he possesses the timing and sense of distance you would expect from a veteran, but there's nothing complex about his approach.
Belfort is an above-average defensive wrestler, and his command of distance makes it difficult to get a clean shot at him in the first place. His guard is dangerous, and when he gets on top he can finish, but Belfort never looks to make that happen with takedowns or work in the clinch.
Betting Odds
Souza -300, Belfort +250.
Prediction
Belfort could crack Souza and finish him at any time, but in general, Souza has a much sounder process. He'll back Belfort up, survive the inevitable flurry and then capitalize with takedowns and work on the mat when Belfort gets tired. Souza finds the submission early in the second round.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic
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Heavyweight Championship
Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1; 8-2 UFC) vs. Stipe Miocic (14-2; 8-2 UFC)
Heavyweight champion Werdum makes the first defense of his title against Ohio's Miocic. This is an outstanding matchup—one of the best the division has to offer—and it should be a great back-and-forth fight.
The 38-year-old Werdum's rise to the title has been unlikely, to say the least, but he now boasts one of the best resumes of any heavyweight in history. He defeated Cain Velasquez to take the belt, finished Mark Hunt before that and dominated Travis Browne over five rounds. He last lost to Alistair Overeem back in 2011.
Miocic has grown into a complete fighter. He dropped a competitive five-round decision to Junior dos Santos in December 2014, but finished both Hunt and Andrei Arlovski to punch his ticket to a title fight.
Werdum began his MMA career as a pure grappler and burnished those credentials with two wins at the ADCCs, making him the most accomplished heavyweight grappler in the sport. Over the last decade, however, he has grown into a skilled striker to boot while adding a strong wrestling game for good measure.
Craft defines Werdum's striking game. He isn't the most powerful, and he isn't the fastest, but he's tough, works at a quick pace and excels at reading his opponent and picking his shots accordingly.
As befits a crafty and experienced striker with a 6'4" frame, the jab forms the basis of Werdum's game on the feet. He pumps it constantly and puts real pop behind it, using it to set up hard right kicks and the straight right. Front kicks help to push his opponent back to the end of Werdum's reach and open up his forward-moving combinations, which he likes to punctuate with a vicious left kick to the body.
Werdum isn't a dangerous counterpuncher, but he's willing to exchange in the pocket to dissuade aggressive opponents from the idea of pressuring him at will.
While he's decent off the back foot, Werdum is happiest pressing forward. He likes to follow his punch-kick combinations by diving into the clinch, where his height gives him great leverage, particularly when combined with his serious technical acumen. Werdum's double-collar tie is one of the best in the sport, and he throws vicious knees to the head and body at a rapid pace.
Werdum has progressed a great deal as a wrestler since the days of shooting awful takedowns against Alistair Overeem five years ago, and shoots a technical single and double these days. He places little emphasis on defending takedowns, but with his grappling arsenal, it's not terribly necessary.
Grappling is still Werdum's world. He floats naturally on top and passes beautifully, while on the bottom his guard is active and dangerous. It's hard to overstate how technically sound and smooth Werdum is on the mat, though it should be noted that strong top players have shut him down before.
Miocic is a meat-and-potatoes fighter. Nothing he does is spectacular, but it's all technically sound, and he's blessed with excellent athleticism and some power in his hands. More than anything, however, his game is built on pace.
The Ohio native is mostly a boxer on the feet. He pumps a sharp jab at range as he circles and angles with technically sound footwork, and often follows with a long right hand. His left hook is most dangerous as a counter, and he mixes in the occasional uppercut. For the most part, he's content to stick the one-two, pivot out and repeat the process. The occasional low kick adds some variety.
What makes this hard to deal with is the rate at which Miocic does it. His pace is second only to Velasquez in the heavyweight division, but unlike Velasquez, he prefers to operate in open space rather than pressuring his opponent back toward the fence. This plays to Miocic's 6'4" frame, long reach and preference for rangy punches.
Miocic is competent in the clinch, but the former Division I competitor at Cleveland State still boasts excellent wrestling skills. He prefers explosive doubles and quick, well-finished singles, and while his takedown defense isn't bulletproof, it is well above average.
While he isn't on Werdum's level as a grappler, Miocic does excellent work from top position. His base is heavy, he has good posture, and he packs some power in his ground strikes—particularly when he gets to half guard. His commitment to pace and attrition is just as visible on the mat as it is on the feet.
Betting Odds
Werdum -150, Miocic +120.
Prediction
As the betting odds suggest, this is a close fight. Werdum is the superior grappler by any measure, but Miocic should have the wrestling advantage. On the feet, Werdum is the more diverse striker, but Miocic is a bit more fundamentally sound and works a bit faster.
If Werdum can get this to the ground, he should win it handily. That probably won't happen, though, which means that the striking and clinch phases are essential. It's essentially a wash on the feet, as both like to operate at a quick pace, with Werdum owning a substantial advantage at kicking distance and Miocic a slight one in the pocket.
This should come down to the clinch, and there's little question that Werdum is better there. It's a small edge in the grand scheme of things, but Werdum has shown before that slivers of advantage are all he needs to capitalize.
Through a mixture of judicious work at range and piling up damage in the clinch, Werdum takes a decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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