How Much Longer Will Dan Carter Be Able to Operate at the Top Level?

Dan Carter, the World Rugby Player of the Year for 2015, will be able to operate at the top level until the end of his current contract with Racing 92 in 2018, mainly because he is adapting his style to ensure his longevity as a world-class fly-half.

Carter will be 36 when his current deal ends, and it is hard to see the former All Black playing beyond then. As a World Cup winner, international points record-holder and arguably the finest player of the professional era, he has no need to play on beyond 2018.

But why will Carter be able to keep playing the rugby we expect from him when he is well into his mid-30s?

Most importantly, Carter’s move to France and the Top 14 was a shrewd one. The French league’s physicality may not immediately appear to suit the skilful Carter, but it is playing amid so much brawn that brains can shine through. The faster-paced Super Rugby may have exposed Carter’s diminishing speed as he enters his twilight years. Not so in France.

That said, Carter will depend on his Racing team-mates to maintain his form. Without dominance from the pack, Carter could struggle. But even then, as we saw in the Champions Cup quarter-final against Toulon, although his forwards were on the back foot, Carter was able to control the game as it entered its crucial phases. Writing in the Guardian, Paul Rees noted:

"

Daniel Carter took charge, putting Racing in attacking positions and cutting out risk, despite being virtually on one leg after aggravating a knee injury in the opening half. Carter’s precise tactical kicking relieved pressure at crucial moments and after largely being outplayed in the opening hour, they were on the front foot when it mattered at the end.

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Carter will not be able to replicate the form of his early years. The 2005 vintage, for example, when he decimated the British and Irish Lions, was a superbly balanced runner—the best gain-line fly-half of all. That attacking Carter has largely been confined to history.

But as he showed throughout the 2015 World Cup, and especially in the knockout matches, the late-career Carter is still one of the finest tactical kickers and has some of the best hands of any back in the world. His goal kicking remains dead-eye. These are the skills that will enable him to operate at the top level until 2018.

Parallels between Carter and the other great injury-ravaged No. 10 of the millennium, Jonny Wilkinson, were rarely apt, but there are certainly similarities in the way these two geniuses approach the game in their mid-30s. Compare the way Wilkinson played when European Player of the Year in 2013 at Toulon to Carter’s current style and you find pragmatic game management firmly at the heart of their play.

Wilkinson’s evergreen form was aided by having a world-class partner at 12 in Matt Giteau to take some of the creative pressure off the veteran fly-half. Similarly, Carter will need scrum-half Maxime Machenaud to perform that role for him.

Ahead of the Champions Cup semi-final with Leicester Tigers, Carter’s former midfield partner Aaron Mauger told the BBC:

"

When he's on top of his game, as we saw at the World Cup, there's probably no better. He's pretty resilient, he's always worked very hard to be the best that he can be and that's why he has been one of the best the game has ever seen. He's a pretty complete footballer. He's had to re-package himself over the years, especially with injuries, but I think he's come back a better player.

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Carter in 2016 is not Carter in 2005—and he shouldn’t try to be. One of the toughest skills for the ageing genius is to recognise his limitations. Great players adapt, and Carter is a truly great player. With his superb game management, handling and kicking, he will see out his contract at Racing while remaining in the top handful of fly-halves in the world.